Disarray 

Lying in Wait

There are forces in the world waiting.  They wait for the moment, for the exact second, when the other side is “distracted”.  They are poised to pounce, to invade, to conquer; at the exact time when a Nation is least prepared.   

Vladimir Putin saw the United States in disarray.  Sure Trump was out of office, but his foreign policy damage continued.  The State Department, gutted by the Trump Administration, was stripped of many professionals who spent years learning their trade.  Decades of acquired knowledge was lost.  America’s European allies now questioned how committed the US was to NATO, and particularly Article Five, the guarantee of mutual aid.  And even worse, they questioned the future.  The Biden Administration might say anything, but couldn’t guarantee their promises would be honored by a future President, particularly if that was Trump.

The United States continues to be turned inward, fighting internal political battles that are all-consuming.  And, right or wrong (I believe right), the new President Joe Biden pulled US Troops from Afghanistan. It was, perhaps inevitably, ugly and chaotic.  The “Greatest fighting force the world has ever known” looked weak, disorganized, and disheveled.   The civilians clinging to the wheels of US C-17 “Globemasters” as they taxied on Bagrum Airbase, looked hauntingly familiar, like the civilians hanging from helicopter skids taking off from the US Embassy in Vietnam.  The US withdrawing in humiliation from another long, unsuccessful war.

Fever Dreams

So it should be no real surprise that Putin took the opportunity to try to fulfill his own “fever dream” of Russian hegemony.  He launched a “lightning strike” attack at Kyiv, what the foreign policy world calls a “decapitation attack”.   It failed, and the successful Ukrainian resistance bought the needed time. The Western World responded.   

The same logic applies to what happened Saturday morning.  Israel is distracted.  The Prime Minister is dodging criminal charges.  His political allies weakened the Court system. They moved power to the legislature, the Knesset, where they control.  Many, perhaps most, Israelis see this power grab as an attack on Democracy, and are in the streets protesting.  Even the vaunted Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) is weakened, as veteran reservists refused to serve a government they see as moving towards autocracy.

Israel’s greatest ally, the United States, openly questioned the Prime Minister’s actions.  Just in the past couple weeks, Biden met with Netanyahu at the United Nations in New York, and asked him to retract the autocratic changes.  Many in the US Congress spoke out against the Netanyahu administration.  And so Israel looked weak, both internally and to the world. So, the force, quietly waiting, decided to strike.

Israel Surrounded

Israel is a Jewish nation.  Many Palestinians, mostly Islamic, were pushed out of Israel into three directions: East to  the occupied West Bank area, North to the Golan Heights in Lebanon, and South to the occupied Gaza region.  The West Bank and Gaza Palestinians organized as a Palestinian government, but broke into factions.  The West Bank area is controlled by the Palestinian Authority, but Gaza is controlled by the US defined terrorist group, Hamas. (While Palestinians in the north are technically in the country of Lebanon, that area is controlled by Hezbollah, a terrorist organization sponsored by Iran). 

Saturday, Hamas attacked across the border into Israel.  They broke through the “impregnable” border wall, launched thousands of missiles, and landed by sea and even by glider into Israeli territory.  Hundreds if not thousands of Hamas forces fought in the streets of Israeli villages.  Perhaps worst of all, Israeli soldiers and civilians were taken as hostages, taken back to Gaza.

The United States is moving to support the Israeli government.  All talk of Israeli democratic reforms are on hold in the face of this attack.  Even Netanyahu’s opposition in the Knesset is pledged to support him, Israel is locking down the other borders to the east and north, preparing to counter any efforts there. Rockets were launched from the Golan Heights, but only at Israeli outposts in disputed territory. 

There is no question that Israel, and the world, was caught off guard by this attack.  The vaunted Israeli intelligence service, Mossad, gave no warning.  Neither did the vast amount of electronic intelligence apparatus, much of it supplied by the United States.

Disarray

Hamas will not maintain control of the captured Israeli territories.  The IDF will likely respond with overwhelming force, doing whatever is necessary to retrieve the hostages, or their bodies. (Just announced – hundreds of civilians were killed at a music “rave” in the desert near the Gaza border).  

Israel will certainly exact revenge on Hamas.  But Saturday’s attack reveals the fallacy of Israel’s strategy of “containment”.  For seventy-five years Palestinians have been occupied and segregated.  Nothing has changed for them.  So the most extreme among them, Hamas, launched a suicidal attack, one that ultimately can only bring great damage to Gaza. It is an act of Hamas’ desperation. But it will force Israel to look even crueler, bloodier, and hateful to the rest of the world.  And they will achieve Hama’s goals:  to bring suffering and uncertainty to Israelis, and display the plight of Palestinians to the world.

It is another symptom of a world in disarray.