Debate Night

Long Time Coming

It’s 440 days until the Presidential election of 2024.  That’s fourteen and two-thirds months, sixty-three weeks, 10,560 hours.  Even the first primary caucus in Iowa is  January 15^th, 2024, still five months away.  So forgive us Americans if we aren’t enamored and mesmerized with “campaign” stuff yet.  We haven’t even finished the 2023 baseball season, Joe Burrow hasn’t thrown a Bengals pass, and the Buckeyes don’t even know who their quarterback will be in 2023 – much less 2024.

The first Republican debate is tonight.  I’ll probably “bite the bullet” and watch, especially since the leading candidate, the four-time indicted, twice impeached former President, won’t be there.  That will give some “oxygen” to the rest of the field.  And, from a purely “watch NASCAR for the car wrecks” standpoint, Chris Christie versus Ron DeSantis ( DU-Santis or DEE-Santis, however he says it this week) should be fun.

The Pledge

Already there’s a “mini” controversy.  Asa Hutchinson, former Governor of Arkansas, signed “the pledge”.  The pledge is required by the Republican National Committee, and it “guarantees” that the signer will support the ultimate nominee of the Republican Party, no matter who it is.  Hutchinson, (and Christie, and Pence for that matter) all say that Donald Trump is not fit to be President again.  Yet they all signed “the pledge”.  Hutchinson was skewered on MSNBC’s  Deadline: White House, when former Republican Congressman David Jolly tried to clarify his views.  After a few minutes of fumbling, the Governor finally stood on the proposition that Trump will never be the nominee, so it was okay to sign on.

Do anything to get on the stage.  A signature with fingers firmly crossed to “roll the dice” and hope something in the debate will make their campaigns catch on fire.  And all of them are searching for combustion, especially the “leader” on this stage, Ron DeSantis.

Self-Immolation

For DeSantis, it’s been a campaign spent stuck in the mud.  His basic premise is that he is the heir to Donald Trump’s MAGA following, a Trump man without the Trump baggage (read indictments).  But the MAGA crowd isn’t as stupid as he thinks.  Why should they take a replica, when they can have the “real thing” with Trump himself.  No matter how far to the extreme right DeSantis pushes Florida, he can’t “out-Trump” the man at Mara Lago.  

And then there’s the errors:  the fight with Disney, the Russian invasion of Ukraine as a “territorial dispute”, even the pronunciation of his own name.  And perhaps the “fatalist” error of all:  when Ron DeSantis gets in front of a crowd, no one likes him.  Iowa and New Hampshire, the opening salvos of the Republican campaigns, are “retail politics”.  It’s about shaking hands, eating corn dogs at the fair, taking selfies, and making people feel that he cares, one on one.  And the sad news for DeSantis; he’s the awkward guy who really doesn’t want to be there.  And the retail “purchasers”, the voters, can tell.

On Fire?

So who should we look to “catch fire” tonight?  Don’t bet on Pence.  He’s stuck with the ultimate curse:  the man running on his loyal service to Trump, who ultimately betrayed him.  To the MAGA crowd Pence is Benedict Arnold or Judas.  There’s no getting past that fact, and there’s not much else to offer.  

And don’t bet on Chris Christie either.  While he may be the “standard bearer” for the GOP of old, he has a fatal flaw.  He was ultimately “taken down” as Governor by moving parking cones on the George Washington Memorial Bridge as political payback.  At least Trump was shooting for something big, like overthrowing the Constitution.  Christie may be the biggest man in the room , but he comes out small, and no one, particularly in the MAGA dominated party, wants small.

Then there’s the “no-names”; entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy and North Dakota Governor  Doug Burgham.  Ramaswamy comes across as the “young, energetic” candidate.  He can even rap the entire Eminem’s “Lose Yourself” on stage with accompaniment.  Too bad he wants to raise the voting age to twenty-five.  And Burgham, the dramatic looking blue-eyed software magnate, has two flaws.  First, he’s from North Dakota, with a voter base of about half a million.  And second, he speaks with the “royal we”.  “We” did this in North Dakota, and “We” will bring it to the White House.  Is there a mouse in his pocket?  

Leaders

The natural leader should be Nikki Haley, former Ambassador to the United Nations and Governor of South Carolina.  She made her political “bones” by having the courage to take the Confederate Battle Flag down from the South Carolina Capitol, after the Emanuel African American Methodist Church mass shooting in Charleston.  And she gained foreign policy “chops” at the United Nations.  But she hasn’t made a dent on the campaign trail, hamstrung with wanting to criticize Trump, but unwilling to pay the price.  She doesn’t seem very courageous now.

Which leaves South Carolina’s Senator Tim Scott.  Scott campaigns as a “Happy Warrior”. He lifts the crowd with his oratory, and looks to the future rather than the Trumpian past.  If that attitude comes through on the debate stage, his star should rise.  There is one problem:  is the MAGA Republican Party ready for a Black candidate for President?

So if you’re a political junky (like me), or watches NASCAR for the crashes, the Republican debate might be for you.  It should be two hours of  candidate “revelation”, hopefully not completely about the elephant NOT in the room.  It starts at 9pm eastern, broadcast on Fox News.