He Can Run
Hey folks, let’s be clear about one thing. Trump is under two federal indictments and one, soon to be two more state indictments; all during an election year. But it isn’t going to matter. Even if he is convicted on all of those counts, he still could be elected President. He wouldn’t be the first to run for President from behind bars. Socialist Eugene Debs ran from the Atlanta Penitentiary in 1920, and got almost a million votes. And for those of you who think, surely the United States wouldn’t elect an orange man in an orange jump suit as President. How sure are you? We didn’t think the US could elect a reality show “star” who “grabbed them wherever”, either.
No Fourteenth
Some take solace in the Federalist Society lawyers who say we can apply a Fourteenth Amendment prohibition to the twice-impeached, thrice (so far) indicted former President: I wish it were so.
“No person shall…hold any office, civil or military, under the United States, or under any state, who, having previously taken an oath, as a member of Congress, or as an officer of the United States…to support the Constitution of the United States, shall have engaged in insurrection or rebellion against the same, or given aid or comfort to the enemies thereof”(Section 3, 14th Amendment, US Constitution).
We might all agree that Trump meets the “common” definition of giving aid to insurrectionists. But none of the charges, Federal or State, specifically use the terms “insurrection or rebellion”. The Federal charges in Washington, DC, are “normal” charges of conspiracy to defraud and obstruction of government. Even Jack Smith’s final charge of taking away citizens’ rights to vote (a violation of the same 14th Amendment) wouldn’t necessarily be covered by the disqualification section.
And which Court is going to apply the disqualification to him? When the case inevitably reaches the Supreme Court, does anyone reasonably believe that the six majority Republican and conservative Justices are going to deny his opportunity to run, or more, reverse his election to office? Unless Jack Smith has a full insurrection and sedition charge still to “drop”, the 14th Amendment disqualification argument just doesn’t stand: too bad.
Solid Base
What can we expect? There are two elections coming up in 2024, one a primary election where the voters are the “hardcore” Party members, and the other a general election where we all take part (I hope). Since the majority of the “hardcore” Republicans don’t believe that the 2020 election was “legal”, and think that the “insurrection” was little more than a “First Amendment Event” that got out a control, Trump is good with them.
Every time Trump gets another indictment, it solidifies his support among that base. Every time anyone, especially other Republican candidates for President, say something negative about the candidate who faces criminal charges, the base rallies round the MAGA flag. And as Donald Trump always says: better to have bad publicity than no publicity. Trump is taking up all of the oxygen in the campaign, all of the discussion. Candidates Asa Hutchinson and Vivek Ramaswamy can’t get a word in edgewise. And Mike Pence, well, he’s a “great traitor” in their midst.
So, as crazy as it might sound, indictments probably don’t hurt Donald Trump’s candidacy for the Republican nomination. If he gets that nomination, the general election is different. In a general election, Trump depends on a swath of “hold your nose” voters. They don’t like Trump, but don’t like Biden even more. Add in a far-left candidacy with the Green Party, and a “who-knows” Joe Manchin “No Labels” candidacy, and the binary choice we made in 2020 isn’t quite as clear.
Run for Protection
Many Democrats are willing to “roll the dice” on a Biden versus Trump rematch. Biden’s greatest weaknesses, age and Hunter, are completely cancelled out by a Trump candidacy. Biden delivered in 2020, why take the chance of a divisive primary with Newsom or Harris or Whitmer; perhaps irretrievably splitting the Party? (Look at history: Reagan challenged Ford in 1976, Kennedy challenged Carter in 1980. While both sitting Presidents got the nomination, the other Party won the general election).
Be careful what you wish for. Trump MUST run for President. It’s his best (and perhaps only) way out of jail. When he’s elected, he can order the Justice Department to drop the charges. If he’s convicted, he could even go so far as pardoning himself (though that’s a whole other “kettle of fish” legally). And then there’s that nagging Department of Justice “policy” (not a law) that prevents DoJ from acting within sixty days of an election (that should be called the “Comey Rule”). Trump’s trial dates, both in Florida and in DC, are likely to be in the middle of the primary elections. Does that count?
You can be sure that Trump wants the “Comey Rule” applied, and his lawyers will make the same argument. They say all of the trials should be delayed. The American people should render the verdict, not in the jury box, but at the ballot box.
Democrats will have to win in 2024 to get the final say.
