Carville
James Carville is a strange guy. He is the famous (infamous) political operative behind the Bill Clinton successes: but Carville’s bald dome, often covered by a Marine or LSU baseball cap; angular body and almost incomprehensible Louisiana accent makes him – well – eccentric. Carville made his reputation in the 1990’s Clinton campaigns, but since has built a career as a progressive international campaign operative.
Carville is known for “Carville-isms”. And one of his most quoted applies to Presidential campaigns: “It’s the economy, stupid”.
Economic History
Carville knew in 1992 and 1996 that the condition of the American economy played into the hands of his empathetic but flawed candidate. In 1992, President George HW Bush was fresh off victory in the First Iraq War, but had a nation suffering in recession. That recession triggered the third party candidacy of Ross Perot, who likely syphoned enough votes from the incumbent to clinch a Clinton victory. War victories aside, it was, “…the economy stupid”.
John Kerry ran into that same struggle in the Presidential election of 2004. The Nation was three years past 9-11. While George W Bush showed tremendous leadership at that time, by 2004 we were mired in wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. Kerry, a Democrat who made his original reputation as an anti-Vietnam War veteran, was leading in many polls up to the last few weeks of October.
But, after the economic crash of the 9-11 attacks, the United States recovered nicely. The economy was humming along in 2004 for the Bush Administration, and Bush was re-elected to the Presidency in spite of his foreign policy misadventures. It was, “…the economy, stupid”.
Today’s Economy
With all of that, you’d think Republicans could feel good about the upcoming 2024 Presidential elections. Biden managed to ride out the Covid economic disaster, but the “treatment” that sustained the economy through 2020 and 2021 is now exacting a cost. The stock market that dropped over 15,000 points in 2020, almost half its value, rebounded back to within 2000 points of the 2019 peak. Unemployment dropped from over 10% to a fifty-year low of less than 4%.
But the price of the “cure” was inflation. Prices surged up, first from the imbalance of supply and demand, then from increases in wages. While the rate of inflation has slowed now, Americans are still looking at soaring energy, housing, and food prices. If that remains the case next year, it would be great material for Republican Presidential candidates. “It’s the economy stupid”.
The one thing any Republican candidate should do, is focus on that issue. Anything else becomes a distraction to the shared experiences that every American citizen can relate to: buying groceries, filling up the gas tank, or paying the electric bill. Whether Republicans can really do anything about that is questionable, but they can definitely lay the blame at Biden’s feet.
But that’s not what’s happening.
Wedge Issue
Instead, Republicans have opened a “whole can of worms” (worms really do come in cans – Amazon) of “wedge issues”. Wedge issues divide voters, pushing them to take an absolute position on one side or another. There is little room for moderation when it comes to wedge issues, instead, there is polarization with a chasm of emptiness in between.
Three issues where Republicans have “doubled down” on divisive issues: abortion rights, guns, and race.
The Trump appointed Supreme Court erased fifty years of women’s rights by overruling the Roe abortion decision. Instead of setting a new standard, the Court “punted” the issue, sending the question of if-or-when a woman can get an abortion to the individual states. So now the United States is a mish-mash of abortion regulations. Some states are even attempting to regulate the travel of their citizens, criminalizing attempts to leave the state to get abortion care. And, now in Texas, a renegade Federal Judge is trying to nationally outlaw one of the two primary drugs used for medical abortions.
The Republican stand on abortion led “Red-Red” Kansas to vote down a state constitutional amendment to ban abortions, elected an entire slate of Democrats to the Michigan executive branch, and last week turned the determining seat in the Wisconsin Supreme Court to a progressive. It’s been a political “loser”, with the exception of motivating the 30% Republican base. And it has motivated even more the Democratic base, women and younger voters, to come out and make their opposition heard. Last I checked, you can’t win with only 30% (that’s a “Dahlman-ism”).
Guns and Minorities
The Republican stand on guns is doing a similar thing. While most Americans, including gun owners, would accept moderate regulation of who can have guns, the Republican state legislatures have gone to the far extreme. States like Ohio and Florida (and Tennessee and Kentucky) are voting full “Constitutional Carry” laws, with no requirements at all for publicly carrying a firearm. This absolute position is pushing moderates to the Democratic side, in light of the almost daily dose of mass shootings. You can’t win with only 30%.
And Republican actions on minority and LGBTQ issues are polarizing to the extreme. Last week’s action by the Tennessee state legislature, expelling two Black legislators, is reminiscent of the 1950’s and 60’s segregation fights. And constant attacks on city governments, local prosecutors (like Manhattan and Atlanta) all have racial overtones. Add that to the drumbeat of anti-LGBTQ legislation sweeping through Republican controlled legislatures nationwide, and again the Republican’s seem to be the party of extremists, doubling-down to their base but ignoring everyone else. You can’t win with only 30%.
Big Picture
So here we are, 18 months out from the 2024 elections. From this vantage point it looks like a rematch of Biden and Trump, one that ought to be winnable for Republicans should the economic situation remain the same. But their focus on all of these polarizing issues takes their message “off the ball”. Sure it might be good for maintaining their base, and it certainly for the Republican primaries. But they are missing the big picture. They can’t win with 30%.
And that’s fine with me.
