Apocalypse Not

Values

A friend of mine brought a recent Wall Street Journal (NORC) poll to my attention (WSJ – paywall).  The headline reads:

 America Pulls Back from Values that Once Defined It, WSJ-NORC Poll Finds

 Patriotism, religion, and hard work hold less importance.

The polling contrasts results over the past twenty-five years to how important Americans find the following:

• Patriotism – down 32% (1998 70%, 2019 60%, 2023  38%)
• Religion  – down 23% (1998 – 62%, 2023 – 39%)
• having children – down 20% (1998 – 50%, 2023 30%)
• community involvement – down 35% since 2019 (1998 46%, 2019, 61%, 2023 24%)
• tolerance for others down -22% (1998 80%, 2023 58%)
• Hard Work – down 13% (1998 75%, 2023 62%)
• money – up 10% (1998 31%, 2023 43%).

Note – 2019 results included when it marked a significant change in the polling track.

The numbers seem almost “apocalyptic” for American civilization.  The “top line”: values that make America into America are drifting away.  We are becoming (or maybe already are) a nation of narcissists; valuing family, religion, community, and country less; and unwilling to work hard for a living.  In fact, the only thing we seem to value more is money.  It is a statistical argument to show that the “idyllic” America of the past is gone.

But let’s analyze some alternatives to this “end of America as we know it”. 

Polling 

First of all, we need to recognize that polling in and of itself is dramatically different.  In 1998, polling consisted of human beings calling other human beings in their homes on land lines.  In 2023 (and 2019) polling is “robo” polling, trying to reach folks on cell phones where the answerer is unlikely to pick up a number they don’t recognize.  Polling in 1998 was a direct interaction, but polling today tends to only reach those most motivated to be polled.  

So pollsters cannot depend simply on “large numbers” to reach an accurate conclusion in their polling data. Instead, they create a “model” of the population they are polling, then call until they reach enough folks that match the factors in the model they are looking for.  So if the “model” is inaccurate, so are the results.  

We know this is true, because here in 2023 we are well aware that polls can be surprisingly wrong.  We’ve seen it in election after election, really since 2012, when polling seemed “certain” but the election outcomes were very different.  And we know that there are partisan polling organizations (not NORC) that intentionally skew polls for their own political purposes.

Not only has it made Americans very wary of polls, but it also shakes American’s confidence in our electoral process.  Since polling results and election results are often so different, it raises the specter of some failure on one side or the other.  That specter is inflamed by politicians claiming election fraud.  Is it the polls, or the ballots?  Americans in 2023 are uncertain.  That’s two American institutions we don’t trust.

Patriotism

According to the poll, patriotism declined, slowly by 10% over twenty years, then dramatically 22% in the past four years.  Accepting those numbers, there are two huge factors in this decline:  “MAGA-ism” and Covid.  

Covid put Americans in a difficult “patriotic” bind.  Was it “patriotic” to isolate, wear masks, and get vaccinations; all to protect your family, community and Nation?  Or was it “patriotic” to demand the “freedom” to gather, go maskless, and ignore vaccinations?  Both sides claim to be representing the “best” of America.  But only one side claimed the trappings of patriotism, flags and Constitutional language (you can’t take my RIGHTS!).  The other side based its argument on science and humanity, not necessarily protecting themselves and others for “God and Country”.

“MAGA-ism” created much the same patriotic dilemma.  The MAGA figurehead, Donald Trump, literally wrapped himself in the flag, “…Proud to be an American…”, and told Americans that they were losing their nation, their religions (white Christianity), their jobs and their future.  Flying the Star Spangled Banner in front of your house largely became symbolic for a particular political view (though it still flies proudly from my front porch).  

So this dramatic drop in “patriotism” in the past three years might have more to do with the working definition of current patriotism, than actual love and willingness to sacrifice for country.  Patriotism to many seems synonymous with extreme nationalism, so those who don’t agree with that would not define themselves as patriotic.  On the other hand, I would argue that acts of American patriotism include the Black Lives Matter marches of 2020, the fierce stand of the two young legislators in Tennessee last week, and the huge increase in women and young people turning out to vote.  They just don’t describe themselves as “patriots”.  

Institutions

Many Americans lost trust in our “institutions”.  That’s not just restricted to government institutions like the FBI or the Boards of elections.  Public schools are under increasing fire, as are local governments, and police departments all over the country.  Our current political climate undermines institutional trust from both sides.  In addition, we have discovered betrayal from “trusted” institutions from major churches to Little League Baseball to the Boy Scouts.  Not only were children molested, but those institutions played a large role in protecting the molesters.  

So it should be little wonder that Americans are losing “faith” in institutions, and particularly organized religion.  Those institutions often are involved in the fraught political issues of our time, right or wrong.  When church members found themselves in political conflict with their own “religion”, many walked away.  So, like the question of patriotism, the question of religion might well be more a matter of definition.  Is religion a “going to church” thing, or is religion a question of faith?  The NORC poll doesn’t make that distinction. 

Community

The “hidden number” in the poll is involvement in community.  That increased 15% from 1998 to 2019, then crashed 37% in the past four years.  The obvious answer to that is Covid.  Americans stopped being involved in their community for over a year of shutdowns in the pandemic.  In that time, we “lost” the habit, not just of community involvement, but of many other kinds of social interaction.   Even movie theatres haven’t recovered from the pandemic.  

Folks changed their lifestyles in “lockdown”, and not just in their views of their community.  They also became less tolerant of others as they sat in the social media-fed isolation, and found less motivation to “work hard” at their computer screens, or were put at risk as “essential workers”.  Lockdown isolation certainly encouraged narcissism (the importance of “money” versus “hard work”).  It’s not the whole reason for that polling, but it’s a significant factor.

Apples and Oranges

America is a very different place then it was in 1998.  That was before the Clinton Impeachment, before the attack on 9-11, and before the election of the first African-American President.  America fought a war in Iraq based on a false accusation, and the longest war in American history in Afghanistan.  Oh, and then there was that thing called the internet and social media.

The definitions that made “sense” in 1998; patriotism, religion, family and work aren’t the same as many have today.  So to make comparisons based on those “words” may well be comparing apples and oranges, rather than potatoes and potatoes.  In spite of the flaws in polling in 2023, even if the results are accurate, the pollsters may not be asking the right questions. 

With all of that, I think the“demise” of America is highly exaggerated.