Ambition Fulfilled
Congratulations to Kevin McCarthy, the new Speaker of the House of Representatives. He has achieved his life ambition, the second in line for the Presidency, and the leader of the House. It was an ugly, ugly process; fourteen excruciating roll calls where McCarthy lost by just a few votes. The “radical” wing of the Republican Party held McCarthy hostage, extracting more and more power from him in each round.
On the fourth day and the fourteenth vote he thought the “deal” was done. He already lost much of the power accrued to the office since Republican Speaker Cannon, “Czar Cannon”, took charge in 1906. It was given away piecemeal to gain the votes of the “rebels”. But even then, there was one more Congressman to appease. It took a last minute deal, made in the hard cold light of national television, for McCarthy. He gave Matt Gaetz of Florida what he wanted. Gaetz was almost assaulted (a popular move among many). The nation watched the scene of one Congressman muffling another and dragging him off of the House floor.
But the last deal was finally done, Gaetz got whatever it is he wanted, and on the fifteenth roll call, McCarthy got the oversized gavel in his hand. The question is: what is left for him to govern?
Lucifer’s Choice
The Bible says that the angel Lucifer, desperate to challenge God for the throne of Heaven, was forced to choose. As Milton intoned in Paradise Lost, Lucifer determined “…It’s better to reign in Hell than serve in Heaven”. He left to become Satan.
McCarthy is no Satan: he made a different choice. He chose the “throne” of the Speakership, and gave away the capacity to “reign” anywhere. He is now beholden to the rump minority of the Republican Party that gave him the gavel, serving only at their pleasure. Should he cross their purposes, any single one of them can call to “vacate the chair”, and throw the House, and the Nation, back into the chaos of the past week.
Obstruction and Investigation
He gave the power to “obstruct” to the extremists of his Party. When the critical pieces of legislation arrive in the House, increasing the US Debt limit or passing a Federal Budget, the extremists can hold our government’s function hostage. Don’t be surprised if the threat of “Government Shutdown” becomes a reality more than once. (That may be a satisfying “bomb” to throw, but historically shutdowns have backfired on the Party that initiates them.)
And if McCarthy moves to compromise, to perform the legislative task of “making the deal”, he is a single vote away from losing his gavel.
And he unleashed the Freedom Caucus fever dream of investigation and subpoena. If you enjoyed the Benghazi hearings, just wait for the “FBI Hearings”, the “Hunter Hearings”, the “January 6th Committee Hearings”, the “Russiagate Hearings”, and, of course “the Border Hearings”. We may never see legislation passed, but there will certainly be plenty of entertaining C-Span fodder. All of which will lead Americans to ask: what’s in this for me? Just as the 1994 Newt Gingrich “revolution” and the 2010 “Tea Party” revolt brought Democrats back into power, the next two years will set up the Democrats for 2024. Just not much is going to get done in the meantime.
McCarthy’s Speakership might not survive 2023, much less the full term of the 118th Congress. But while he is there, he’ll be serving rather than reigning.
And it’s likely to be a Hell of a time.
