Winners
While control of the House of Representatives is still unclear, there are clear winners and losers from the mid-term elections of 2022. The big winner is Joe Biden, who managed to dodge what all the commentators and pollsters saw as a looming “Red Wave”. “Sleepy Joe” Biden out-foxed them all, placing democracy and personal rights at the head of the Democratic agenda. All of the commentators “in the know” knew the election was all about inflation, crime and the border, the Republican talking points. But they didn’t “know” as much as they thought they did.
Those commentators were misogynistic and lacked belief in the American people. The “all knowing ones” thought that women, with new voter registration in record numbers, would forget all about the Dodds abortion decision and instead vote solely on inflation. And they thought that Americans in general were so short-memoried, that the Insurrection of January 6th wouldn’t matter. As it turned out, both those issues did.
Losers
The biggest loser of the day was Donald Trump, the twice impeached and disgraced former President of the United States. With a few exceptions (sadly, one here in Ohio) Trump anointed candidates fell flat. In Michigan and Arizona, where the full slate of Republican statewide candidates were election deniers, the Trumpers were completely turned away.
Trump announced his third run for the Presidency last night. Two weeks ago that probably made some “Trump” sense (if Trump ever makes sense). Anticipating a “Red Wave” election with his chosen candidates doing well, Trump could strike quickly to retain the leadership of the Republican Party, and demand loyalty in another bid for power. All of the air would be out of the political room, and other Republican Presidential hopefuls, most notably Ron DeSantis of Florida, would immediately be on the defensive.
But Trump now announced at his point of greatest weakness. That, of course, still makes “Trump Sense”. When you’re losing, there’s nothing better than acting like a winner. He’s creating a whole tale, where he is the “only One” the people trust. “Only He” can fix the nation’s so-called problems. We’ve heard this song before. To make the point, he’ll say that as the election results show, there’s no one else that can fill his shoes.
Other Reasons
But Trump has two more pressing reasons to begin a Presidential campaign, right now. The first is money. The disgraced former President is facing enormous legal fees, defending against two Federal investigations, two state investigations, and several civil suits. The Republican National Committee is finally refusing to pay for Trump’s legal bills, and he needs a ready source of money to defend himself. There’s no easier way to raise money than to offer to his assembled masses the opportunity to “Make America Great Again” by contributing to the Trump Legal Defense Fund, the Trump 2024 Campaign Fund.
Department of Justice
And by declaring for President now, Trump puts added pressure on the Department of Justice. No American President has ever been indicted for a crime after he left office. Nixon was set for indictment, but his successor President Ford pardoned him before charges could be brought. And while some considered indicting George W Bush for allowing torturing of captured terrorists, President Obama nixed that idea.
Attorney General Merrick Garland is a man of precedent. He would have made a solid “middle” in the US Supreme Court, a “leftier” John Roberts (but Mitch McConnell never let him be considered). There is no precedent for indicting a former President. So it will take a mountain of evidence, an irresistible force of material, to push Garland to indict Trump.
By declaring for President now, Trump will add more friction to that decision. Garland is loath to interfere in domestic politics. Department of Justice policy discourages bringing charges within sixty days of an election, and even though the 2024 election is more like sixty hundred and fifty days away; Garland will have to consider that factor as well – and Trump knows it.
Cover Their Base
Meanwhile other Republican leaders are busy “covering their bases”. Potential candidate Ted Cruz suggests other candidates, including himself, before Trump. But he would support Trump if nominated, and John Cornyn says the same. Lindsay Graham is already singing the praises of Trump’s dark message of American carnage.
And speaking out for the first time is former Vice President Mike Pence. In an interview with ABC news, he made it clear that he blames Trump for putting him and his family at risk on January 6th. He hasn’t been willing to tell his story in the almost two years since the insurrection. Now, after the mid-term election results are clear, Pence grew the – courage – to tell the American people the truth of the Insurrection. We can view that as his opening “bid” in the Republican Presidential primary.
When Gerald Ford replaced Richard Nixon as President in 1974, he told America that “…our long national nightmare is over.” The nightmare of Donald Trump truly began in November of 2016. We hoped it was finally over on Election Day of 2020. But like Napoleon Bonaparte, or the Terminator, Trump seems to keep coming back again and again. And like those two figures, we can’t count Trump out.
