Polling Error

I’m back – a little.  I’m a one fingered typer, my dominant hand still incased in a sling,  But I had to say SOMETHING this morning, even if it’s just a comment -so here it is!!

I was a history and government teacher for twenty-eight years. I wrote thousands of tests and quizzes on all sorts of subjects – from the intricacies of the Electoral College to the strategies of the Cold War. One thing I learned: it was a mistake to ask the same question over and over again.

It was easy to fall into a trap:  “Who was the first President,” followed later by, “what was Washington’s most important job,” followed by, “who won the first Presidential election”.  It penalized students who might know everything else, but missed that point – and unfairly benefitted those who got just that one. I learned to write tests that evaluated a balanced sampling of the subject. It just made sense. 

It’s Sunday morning, and I’m watching the “Sunday Shows”. ABC is leading with their NATIONAL POLL of voters. They have made a HUGE discovery: 28% of Americans are worried about the economy, and 26% are worried about inflation. Abortion rights takes a distant third on the list at 16%.  The commentator even added it together, intoning:  “…56% of Americans are worried about economic issues, only 16% about abortions.”

The pollsters fell into the trap. They asked the same question twice.  They could have asked it three times – adding maybe if the price of gas is important. Because inflation is a subset of the economy – the subset most people are worried about. 

Americans aren’t dramatically concerned about the improving GDP, or the historically low unemployment rates, or the improving stock markets. They aren’t even too crazy about the rising mortgage rates. That’s “the economy”. No – it’s increasing prices, even though many are seeing increasing wages as well.  And it is a big deal. 

 Big enough that it doesn’t need to be “double tested” to make a Sunday Show talking point.