Old Dog, Old Tricks

No I’m not writing about OUR dogs – again.  But they  are always scattered around my office.  We’re watching replays of the Qanon Trump rally.  They’re asleep.

Wave Running

The 2022 mid-term elections are seven weeks away.  All of the polling indicates that, much like 2020 and 2018; this election will be narrowly decided by a critically divided nation.  What looked in June like a “Red Wave” election, giving Republicans control of the House and the Senate, now looks a Red-Blue wash, with power decided by one or two seats.

The election theory that I grew up with and used over the past fifty years seems no longer true.  In the old days, just a decade ago, candidates ran to their base in the primaries, and then ran to the center for the general election.  They ran to their base because the base that showed up to vote in the primary elections.  Then they ran to center, because the base was not big enough to win a general election. 

Wipe Out 

The difference today is in the incredible polarization of American politics.  We are so divided, that it is difficult to “move” to the center, without “betraying” the absolute values of the base.  Take the Republican Senate candidate from New Hampshire, former Brigadier General Don Bolduc.  He won the primary as a “true-believer” in election denial, claiming that Joe Biden was an illegitimate pretender rather than the elected President of the United States.  How could it be possible to “center” that view? 

Simple – come out a few days after the primary election, with a religious-like “revelation”. After further consideration he now believes that Biden was in fact legitimately elected.  It is a most blatant version of “flip-flopping”, and unlikely to convince anyone in the center that the General has changed his view.  While he may want to be more centered, his primary statements aren’t going away.  And he really can’t afford to lose his base anyway – so there’s a clear wink-wink going on.  It’s just hard to say which side is getting the wink, and which is getting the lie.

Back to Base

But looking at other races nationwide, many candidates are doing the opposite of “old school” politics.  Instead of running to the middle, they are running to their base.  Take JD Vance in Ohio, for example.  Since the Republican primary, he’s stated that he’s for banning all abortions, period, and that women should stay in abusive relationships “for the children”.  And Saturday night, as The Ohio State University football team soundly defeated the upstart team from Toledo, Vance appeared beside Donald Trump at a Youngstown, Ohio rally.  Trump called it out:

“J.D. is kissing my ass.  Of course he want’s my support.  He fell in love with me the same way that Kim Jong Un did…” (USA).

Vance swallows Trump’s humiliating statements, as long as the disgraced President still campaigns for him.  It doesn’t even matter that Trump compared Vance to the North Korean Boy-Dictator.  It only matters that Vance got Trump’s stamp of approval.  You can hardly say that’s moving to the middle.

Nationally Republicans are worried.  The Dodd decision changed what the 2022 voter turnout will look like.  Women are leading men in new voter registration, and they are ready to punish candidates who want to ban all abortions.  But since ending abortion is central to the “heart” of the Republican base belief, what’s a candidate supposed to do?

Old Subjects

Changing the subject is the best Republican leadership has to offer.  And they are trying a “new trick” for that “old dog” of an issue – immigration.  Remember the golden elevator, and Trump’s introduction to American politics?

“…They’re bringing drugs. They’re bringing crime. They’re rapists. And some, I assume, are good people.”

Trump’s answer was to “Build a Wall”.  That resonated with the base, perhaps enough to win in 2016.  But in 2018, when “The Wall” wasn’t enough, we learned about the mythical “CARAVANS” bringing thousands more to the border.  But even that wasn’t enough to stop the “slow Blue Wave” that gave Democrats control of the Congress. 

Now in 2022, the Governors of Florida and Texas are going back to immigration once again.  They are tricking migrants already across the border, into becoming political pawns.  And they are sending them to Democratic cities, often without warning authorities. There’s a taunt; “See, they’re your problem now”.  Last week Texas Governor Abbott bused migrants to the Vice Presidential mansion (the National Observatory) in Washington, DC.  Florida Governor DeSantis followed a Tucker Carlson suggestion, and borrowed migrants from Texas to fly to Martha’s Vineyard.  Today, more Texas migrants are supposedly scheduled to land near Biden’s house in Delaware (Newsweek).  All at Florida taxpayer expense.

Same Result

It’s all about changing the subject – anything, even the Trump legal problems, are better for Republicans than talking about abortion.  

Immigration is an old dog, and the “new migrant trick” appeals only to their base.  But like it or not, turnout is what the November 2022 election is going to be all about.  Which Party gets out more of their base to the polls, and which Party’s base stays home, will decide who controls Congress.

No matter how hard Republicans try to ignore the abortion issue, it’s not going away.  And that gives Democrats a chance to even the odds.