1974
What I most remember about 1974 was graduating from high school and starting college. But as far as “the world” was concerned – it was the House Impeachment hearings, Nixon’s resignation, and Ford’s pardon. How much of an impact did all of that have on me, a budding politician? When I had the “freshman blues” at Denison, I put a sign on my wall – Allenwood Prison Farm. That was the minimum Federal security facility where many of the Watergate principals were serving their time. (Allenwood was closed in 2005, and now, fittingly, is part of a landfill).
What I don’t remember much about – is the end of the Vietnam War, the “opening” of China, pirates seizing a US ship off of Cambodia, and whatever else happened in the world. Like much of America, I was too focused on our internal politics and issues. The rest of the world had to wait – we were busy trying to save the nation.
Return to Normalcy
Fast forward to 2022. The “return to normalcy” offered by Joe Biden can’t happen, because the election of 2020 is still far from over. Now I haven’t turned into a conspiracy theorist or a Stop the Steal believer. But until we finish the “business” of 2020, our nation will remain looking inward. The concern: there’s so much going on “out there” that we’re missing, and might well be missing us. Polling this week shows that the number one issue for Americans is “the threat to democracy”. Numbers two and three are about the economy. What’s happening in the world isn’t even on the list (NBC).
For a brief moment, the Russian invasion of Ukraine caught our attention. We watched the “rookie” leader Zelenskyy grow in his Presidency to become the savior of his nation. We were stunned as the “Goliath” Russian military machine ground to a halt, stopped by the “David” Ukrainian forces. All our long held beliefs about Russia invulnerability, reinforced by old black and white movies of Russian tanks driving the Nazis back to Berlin, dissolved as that seventeen mile convoy was a sitting duck for weeks.
We cheered the Ukrainian defense, and backed them with massive amounts of aid and weapons. Putin’s strategy of decapitation failed, but he wasn’t done. Now, six months later, Russia is grinding out an artillery campaign, trading shots without the massive tank movements we expected. No one is willing to estimate the casualties, especially civilian deaths. Putin is betting the “West” will lose interest. And in the US, that’s actually working. We all knew about Mariupol and the valiant defense of the city. But we can’t even pronounce Zaporizhzhia (Zap-or-rhee-sha). The largest nuclear reactor in Europe is literally the battle line there – but Americans show little interest in news about that.
China
And on the other side of the world, China seems to be doing more than just “saber-rattling”. For the past several years, China has expanded its territorial “waters”. They claim more and more of the South China Sea (the water between China, Vietnam and the Philippines). China even went so far as to build artificial islands to claim as “territory” – demanding 200 miles of the sea around them. The United States consistently opposed those claims. We fly US aircraft and sail our Naval vessels in China-claimed territory to demand freedom of navigation and overflight.
And now China is threatening to invade Taiwan, again. The US policy is purposely vague: we support a “one-China” policy, but also support Taiwan’s independence. If China determines to invade Taiwan, like Russia did in Ukraine, will the United States go to war against them? I think so, and I think we want China to think so. But in an era when we are so distracted by our own internal struggles, China, like Russia, sees an “opening” to achieve their goal of conquest. No wonder they were so upset when the third ranking American leader, Speaker Nancy Pelosi, went to Taiwan to pledge her support.
Final Answer
Europe, like the US, is trying to stave-off burgeoning authoritarian movements. Some of those movements have been successful, like Victor Orban in Hungary or the success of Marie LePen’s party in the French legislature. Other countries have rejected authoritarianism, and some, again like the US, have done both. LePen’s Party had tremendous success in the National Assembly elections in June, but LePen herself was rejected as a Presidential candidate.
Iran and the US are negotiating again. The US is demanding the Iran return to the Obama Administration’s JCPOA plan to prevent nuclear weapons. That was the plan abandoned by the Trump Administration. But there’s a lot of “water under the bridge” since President Obama announced success. The US assassinated Iranian General Soleimani, and Iran in turn tried to assassinate former National Security Advisor John Bolton and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. So it’s hard to figure how that will turn out, or whether Congress will approve an agreement even if one is reached.
With all of this is going on, nothing really is much different at the US Southern Border. Except, thank God, we aren’t ripping kids out of parent’s arms. But we are still so focused on the 2020 election, even here in 2022. Election deniers are running for office trying to get votes that will deny if they lose. We are poised on the edge of our own authoritarian crisis. November will point what direction we are headed as a nation, but it won’t be until 2024 that the “final answer” will be called.
I hope the world can wait, but I expect it won’t.
