Go Bucks!
Jenn and I went out to lunch a few days ago, at the Broadway Pub in Granville. Jenn had to take a phone call, and I was left watching an old football game on the TV over the bar. It was a replay of the 2003 National Championship game, one near and dear to the hearts of Central Ohio “Buckeye” fans. Ohio State was playing the Miami Hurricanes, and “everyone” knew that Miami was going to win. Everybody, that is, but the Buckeyes.
Looking back at that game, Miami had the better athletes and the more talented team. Eight times out of ten, Miami should win that game. But sometimes good coaches can make a difference. The coach of Ohio State then was a mild-mannered man in a vest named Jim Tressel. And he came up with a game plan that upset the Miami “Hurricane”. He kept Ohio State in the game, “hanging around” into the fourth quarter, then striking to take the lead. Miami lost their best running back to knee injury, but still came back, scoring a game-tying field goal at the end of regulation.
The game went into two overtimes, filled with controversial calls. But Miami was playing hamstrung, and ultimately Ohio State won the game and the National Championship.
Disaster
Three years later Ohio State was back in the national championship game again, this time against the University of Florida. As smart as Tressel’s game plan was for the Miami game, it was a disaster against the Gators. How bad did things go? Ohio State’s number one receiver, Ted Ginn Jr., ran the opening kickoff back for a touchdown. He injured his ankle in the victory “celebration” and was out for the rest of the game. So were the Buckeyes. They lost 41 to 14.
The mark of a good coach is to discover the weakness of their opponent, and then exploit it. That’s what Tressel did against Miami. The great coaches also realize that their pre-planning isn’t working, and transition to a different strategy in mid-game. Tressel tried to do that against Florida. But that’s one of the hardest things to do in coaching, and for the athletes. It takes all of the pre-planned reactions, and alters them in the middle of the competition.
I was never a football coach, and it’s not often that I use football analogies for politics. But I think it’s a good way to think about the 2022 mid-term elections from a tactical standpoint.
Trumpism
Republicans across the nation are “doubling-down” on Trumpism. Candidates from Ohio to Wisconsin, Pennsylvania to Georgia, Florida to Washington, are 2020 election “deniers”, Build the Wall supporters, Critical Race Theory haters, and Insurrection apologists. Republican strategists (like football coaches) are well aware that this strategy won’t attract many undecided voters. But the Republican Party base is dominated by Donald Trump. In order to get nominated in the Republican Party, fealty to Trumpism is almost an absolute requirement. Need examples? Look at the ten Republican Congressmen who voted to impeach Trump. So far of the ten, only one is re-nominated by the Party to run in 2022 (Wyoming will decide about Liz Cheney on Tuesday).
With that kind of “entry requirement”, there’s little room to move to the middle and pickup more undecided voters. So instead, Republicans must depend on a maximum turnout of their voters in November, and a suppressed Democratic turnout. If everyone shows up, like 2020, the biggest election turnout in US history, then Democrats should win. Republicans have to work to make sure that doesn’t happen.
And they are doing a lot to get that done. Twenty-seven states have made voting harder for 2022. Even in states that didn’t make major election law changes, Republicans are making practical changes that will making voting harder in Democratic districts. They are slowing the voting process to increase lines at the polling places, and reducing the number of locations. All of that may suppress Democratic turnout.
Pick a Side
Democratic strategists have made their own tactical decision. They “helped” Republicans chose “Trumpists” as their candidates, actually spending hard-won campaign funds in some Republican races to defeat more moderate candidates. The theory: if Republicans are going to abandon the “middle”, then Democrats will do all they can to seize the center and tip the scales in 2022. Democratic strategists will try to overcome Republican suppression efforts both by driving their base to the polls (the Supreme Court decision overturning Roe v Wade will certainly help there) and at the same time by trying to sway the middle.
An example of this is the Ohio Senate election between Democrat Tim Ryan and Republican JD Vance. Democrats are trying to paint Vance as a Trumper, an extremist of the right. Vance isn’t helping himself there. He already has made statements that abortion should be totally banned with no exceptions, and that women in abusive relationships should consider “sticking it out”. Meanwhile Tim Ryan is portraying himself as an “independent” Democrat, willing to take on his own leadership to represent his constituency. He’s not making that up; he ran for Speaker of the House against Nancy Pelosi. All of that is an effort to appeal not only to the Democratic base, but to the “middle” voter.
High Risks
Like Coach Tressel’s Miami National Championship strategy; the Democratic plan has high risks for high rewards. If they manage to maintain control of the Congress after 2022, they would have defied historic precedence. Democratic success would mark a third win over Trumpism in four elections: one loss in 2016, then wins in 2018, 2020, and 2022.
But a failure would be as catastrophic as the Ohio State loss to Florida in 2006. Perhaps both the House and the Senate would be in Republican hands, and not just “Republicans”, but Trump Republicans. It will open the door for Trump, or a Trump-like candidate for President in 2024.
And even if Democrats succeed in November, the Republicans that remain will be even more Trumpist then before.
Win or lose, America will be more polarized after November, not less.
