Democratic Choice
There’s lots of reason that the election of 2020 was critical, and that weren’t all about Donald Trump. Say what they might, but Democrats had a wide choice of candidates. They had the old “radical”, Bernie Sanders, who surprisingly appealed to the younger members of the Party. There was the “shining star” candidate, Pete Buttigieg, the brilliant young mayor, veteran and gay man who represented “the future”. There were the tech-millionaires, Andrew Yang and Tom Styer. And there were all the Senators; Klobuchar, Bennet, Booker, Harris, Warren and the others who “legitimized” the field with their traditional experience. Of course, since we’re Democrats, we had our “far-out” candidates, Tulsi Gabbard and Marianne Williamson.
And then there was the most traditional candidate, the thirty-six year Senator, eight-year Vice President Joe Biden. Tradition is the world – he represented the “next in line” in old order politics, the “President in waiting”. He had three problems: he was old, he always stumbled, and he was “old order” in a “new world”.
But that’s who we nominated, the “old (and old) order” candidate. Regardless of all the lies and the nonsense of “Stop the Steal” by the Trump campaign, that’s who won the election by seven million votes. The best argument that we can make – Americans wanted to go back to “normal”, choosing a Warren G Harding type candidate (elected in 1920 after all of the upheaval of Woodrow Wilson, the first World War, and the League of Nations debate). America wanted to “return to normalcy”.
Old Order
That’s not necessarily what Biden wanted to do. He entered office with a transformational Franklin Roosevelt type New Deal program. But that wasn’t “normal”, and the narrow Democratic margin in the Senate allowed the prototypical “old order” Democrat, Joe Manchin, the power to stop anything (and everything). That’s the definition of “normal” in American politics.
But there are “new order” Democrats who are tired of operating under the “old order” rules. One of them is Sean Patrick Maloney, the Congressman from New York, and Chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. His job is to maintain the Democratic majority in the House, a daunting task. Tradition, the “old order” way, says that the Party that wins the Presidency loses seats in the House in the next election. And since Democrats only have a five vote majority, it wouldn’t take much to lose control of the House.
Maloney is a prime mover in the plan to not only choose good Democratic candidates for Congress, but to also help Republicans choose “bad” candidates to run against them. The idea is this: if Republicans run “normal” candidates, then the “normal” history will happen, and the Republicans will end up in the majority and Kevin McCarthy will be Speaker of the House.
Electoral Equations
Something out of the normal has to happen. In mathematical terms, you have to change the equation to get a different answer. And here’s how some Democrats are doing it.
The 2021 Governor’s election in Virginia was the primer. The Republican, Glenn Youngkin, ran on a traditional Republican platform. He distanced himself from Donald Trump, even as he still campaigned on many of the issues that were “Trumpian”. He came across as a “old order” Republican. And he was running against an “old order” Democrat, former Virginia Governor and Democratic National Chairman Terry McAuliffe. So the “old order” equation held firm: the winning party of the Presidency traditionally loses the Virginia race in the next year. And Democrats lost.
How to change the equation? Don’t let the Republicans run “old order” candidates. And how could Democrats possibly impact who Republicans are going to nominate for office? Help out the ones they want to run against.
The Republican Party is smaller than it once was. Some “old order” Republicans have eschewed the Party of Donald Trump, and are now “Republican leaning” Independents. So they don’t vote in Republican primaries anymore. The majority of the current Republican voters still support Donald Trump and all of the ideas that come with him.
But the majority of all the voters weren’t willing to vote for Trump in 2020. The theory goes: if Republican run avowed Trump acolytes, they’ll win in the primary, but they lose in the general election, if faced by a “normal” Democrat. So to change “the equation”, Democrats are helping the most extreme Republican “Trumpers” get nominated.
Choose The Opponent
The House election for the Western District of Michigan is a good example. Republican Congressman Peter Meijer voted to impeach Donald Trump after the Insurrection. Meijer is an “old order” Republican, conservative but definitely not a Trumper. He is running in the primary against John Gibbs, an acknowledged Trumper. Democrats are “on the air”, paying for ads saying that Gibbs is “too conservative” and “too close to Trump” to represent Western Michigan. Of course, in the general election against a Democrat, that’s a completely legitimate ad. But it’s running now, in the primary, and is likely to motivate Trump-supporting Republicans to come out and vote for Gibbs against Meijer.
Democrats don’t want to run against Meijer. They want to change the equation, and run against the extremist, Gibbs. Democrats are putting their “money where their mouth is” and paying for ads to run in Western Michigan, now. And that same kind of effort is happening in many districts all over the country.
And it’s not just the House elections. John Fetterman of Pennsylvania (a “new order” Democrat) is running for Senate against “Dr Oz”, supported by Donald Trump. Tim Ryan of Ohio (another “new order” Democrat) is running for Senate against financial manager and author JD Vance, supported by Donald Trump. They got what they wanted, a fierce contest with a “Trump Republican”, not an “old order” Republican.
(Need an example of an “old order” election – look at Ohio’s gubernatorial election, with “new order” Democrat former Dayton Mayor Nan Whaley, against “old order” Republican Governor Mike DeWine. DeWine is heavily favored).
That’s not the “old order” way, nor the “normal” way to win elections. There are many who would say it’s not even “fair”. But it’s not “normal” times, no matter how badly we wanted to “return to normalcy”. It’s a high stakes gamble: run against the most extreme to maximize the chance of winning.
For the sake of the nation, just hope they don’t lose.
