The Journey
No Democrat wants to think about this: the radicalization of the Republican Party started with election of Barack Obama. The obvious conclusion is that the “shock” of America electing a Black man President was so great, that it caused a “back lash” in American politics. It was the beginning of the end of “moderate Republicans”. And that’s the Democrats “fault” for electing him, I guess.
I’m not accusing every Republican of being a racist. What I am saying is that the radicalization of Republicanism occurred because of racism.
The “dominos” that fell after 2008 are pretty clear. The Tea Party Movement rose up to the ideological right of the Republican Party, and the Party leadership wanted their votes. Tea Partiers were anti-government, anti-tax, anti-immigration, and were highly energized. While they weren’t overtly racist, there were always racist undercurrents. So Republican leaders began to take on the Tea Party “language” and views. By 2012 there was a “rift” in the Party, between the mainstream Party members, and the more extreme Tea Party. Remember, the Republican Party used to be the Party of “big business”, of corporate America. The Tea Party was not. They were just as anti-corporate as the “Occupy Wall Street” movement, on the far side of the Democratic mainstream.
Corporate Republicans
Corporate Republicans saw themselves as a Party in the minority. They began to try to consolidate what power they had, working on the state level through their national Red Map Program. That program used technology to exquisitely draw state political districts in order to maximize Republican power. And, like the Midnight Judges of John Adams, Republicans made a concerted effort to appoint as many young, ideological judges to state and federal benches as possible, including the United States Supreme Court.
But the schism in the Party all came to a head in aftermath of the Presidential election of 2012.
The Last Corporate Republican
Mitt Romney was the consummate corporate Republican. He was the scion of an old Republican family, the son of moderate Republican Michigan Governor George Romney. Mitt made his financial “bones” as an investment consultant, rising to the top of Bain Capital and becoming a multi-millionaire. He then took on the failing 2002 Winter Olympics, where he created a financial and popular success. It was the last Olympic Games to finish financially “in the black”. He then went into the “family business”, and ran for Governor of deep-blue Massachusetts as a Republican.
He ran a very moderate campaign, and won against a weak Democratic opponent. And he ran Massachusetts as a moderate; increasing taxes, decreasing spending, and putting the state in a financially positive position. Romney proposed a statewide healthcare program that became the “model” for the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare), and originally campaigned with a pro-choice position on abortion. It was in the middle of his tenure as Governor, that he changed to a pro-life position, more in line with his personal religious beliefs as a Mormon.
Romney seemed like an obvious choice to run against Obama in 2012. And he ran a strong campaign, in the end losing to Obama by only five million votes. What then looked like a massive defeat, fore-shadowed the elections of 2016 and 2020. Clinton won the 2016 election by three million votes, but lost to Trump by a slim margin in the Electoral College. Biden won over Trump in 2020 by seven million votes, but was just barely able to reverse the Electoral College in his favor.
Autopsy
After the 2012 election, the Republican Party leadership commissioned a study of what went wrong. The report, nicknamed the “2012 Autopsy” was really called “The Growth and Opportunity Project”, and made recommendations for the Republican Party of the 21st century. It included reaching out to younger people, minorities, and women as a way to increase the Party base.
But the “Autopsy” was antithetical to the now powerful primary base of the Republican Party, the original Tea Partiers. So Republican candidates for office ignored the National Party recommendations, instead “doubling down” on the Tea Party ideals in order to generate primary votes and energy. And for those Republicans, it worked. The Freedom Caucus of the US House of Representatives grew to represent those Tea Party views in the Congress, and while the structure of the Tea Party faded away, their ideals became a strong minority view in the Republican structure.
Trump versus the Report
We can argue about the political “acumen” of Donald Trump. But one thing is clear: he made the political choice to campaign to the “Tea Party” in the Republican primaries in 2016. And it worked. Trump never won a majority of votes in a Primary until very late in the process. But he was able to win the plurality of many state elections by consolidating and expanding the “Tea Partiers”. The more mainstream candidates were left far behind. Jeb Bush and John Kasich are the obvious examples, the corporate Republican flag-bearers whose campaigns never caught on.
Instead of expanding the Republican base, Trump determined to maximize the existing base. In fact, he played a “Democrat like” game. Democrats win elections by getting folks to turn out. Base to Base, if Democrats turn out, they win. But Trump so energizing his base that, even though they were smaller than the Democratic base, they turned out in droves to vote for him.
And, like the primaries, it was just enough to win, not the popular vote, but the electoral vote. For a non-politician, Trump ran one of the shrewdest campaigns in American history. In poker terms, he played to the inside straight – and won.
Commitment
With the election of Donald Trump, the old “Tea Partiers” had a new banner. They were now “Trumpers”, red-hatted “MAGA” supporters. And the corporate Republicans had to make their way over to the more extreme views of what now was the majority of the Republican Party. It doesn’t really matter whether Lindsey Graham or Mitch McConnell or JD Vance (2022 Senate candidate in Ohio) really believe “in their heart” Trump Republicanism. As long as they publicly act as “Trump Republicans”, they can maintain the now Trump base.
Which leads us to today.
On the Boat
The Republican Party is dominated by Trumpism, even if not Trump himself. And the old corporate Republicans have structured many states so that even if the Republicans aren’t a majority, they can still control a majority of the political positions in state government. The forced union of those two: the Red Map success and Trumpism, has pushed more than half of the states in the Union far to the right of the political spectrum. To maintain political power, the Republican Party is committed to the “old” ideals of the “Tea Party”, including the founding racism.
American citizens are now faced with a choice. The Republican Party of their fathers (my father too) is long gone. It is now the Party of Trump. The Democratic Party still has moderate and progressive wings, but the pressure is on to react as the mirror opposite to Trumpism. That empowers the progressive wing with the base, but it also increases the immense political schism in American life.
Moderate Democrats, like President Biden, seem like a man boarding a boat. One foot is on the dock, one foot in the boat, and it’s leaving. While they can try to pull the boat back to the dock with their legs, the currents of American political life may be too strong for moderation. And that may leave them with a choice – get on the boat, or get left on the dock.
