The Games Begin

Nothing Changed

Yesterday, Russian President Vladimir Putin formally recognized the “independence” of two Eastern provinces of Ukraine, and offered them military assistance.  This is “no big news” in one sense.  Russian troops have been in the Donbas region since 2014.  Of course, they haven’t flown the Russian flag or worn Russian uniforms, but they are a major part of the “partisans” that revolted against Ukraine during the Sochi Olympic Winter Games.  

But by formalizing “treaties” with these territories, Putin officially supported breaking off this part of Ukraine.  A high percentage of people in the Donbas region regard themselves as ethnic Russians, with over 70% speaking Russian over Ukrainian.  The historic analogy:  1938, when Hitler decided that a portion of Czechoslovakia was too ethnically German to remain outside of the German Reich.  So he took over the Sudetenland, a move that was formally agreed to in Munich by the other nations of Europe.  We all know where that ended up.

Proportional Response

The NATO countries, led by the United States, have to make a decision.  Realistically nothing on the “ground” in Ukraine has changed.  The Donbas was under Russian control, Putin has just made it official.  But on the other hand, by making it official, he dismantled a part of another sovereign nation, Ukraine.  How will the NATO countries react?

There are “terms of art” when dealing in diplomacy.  The first one is the theory of “proportional response”.  Some in the United States, on both sides of the political aisle, want the US to respond with a full array of the economic sanctions available.  The problem with that:  Putin has almost 200,000 troops, tanks, artillery, and planes surrounding Ukraine on three sides.  None of those who moved across the borders.  So while “on paper” the situation has changed, it hasn’t altered on the ground – yet.

And NATO is NOT committed to respond militarily to an invasion of Ukraine.  The members of NATO are committed to each other in “mutual self-defense” through Article Five of the NATO agreement.  That article has only been invoked once – after 9-11 when the NATO membership rose in support of the United States.  Ukraine is not a member of NATO.  While the NATO countries are committed to aid, they are not sending in troops.

Sanctions 

So if NATO won’t respond with military force to armed incursion into Ukraine, the only tools left are economic. The nations of the world can refuse to interact with Russia economically, including preventing Russia from using the world banking systems.  In addition, Russia’s major exports are natural gas and oil.  If those exports are cut, then Russia will quickly be in an economic crisis.  Cutting those exports will also cause hardship in the European countries, and an increase in world prices.

But all of that might not be enough to stop Putin from invasion.  A “proportional response” would call for a more moderate punishment for changes “on paper” that aren’t real changes “on the ground”.  So NATO countries are working to respond, but not to overdo it.  They are saving more serious responses for more serious provocations.

A New Empire

Putin has made it very clear that he considers all of Ukraine, not just the Donbas, as part of “greater Russia”.  He published a 5000 word essay on the topic not too long ago.  And Putin feels the worst moment in modern history was December 25, 1991 when the Soviet Union officially dissolved.  Clearly his ultimate goal is to reconstitute the Soviet/Russian empire.  His new “treaty” of yesterday, is with the “People’s Republic of Donetsk and the People’s Republic of Luhansk,” echoing the language of the Soviet Union.

If Putin wants Ukraine, and he’s willing to pay the economic and military price, he’ll have it.  Casualty estimates are over 50,000 soldiers injured or killed, with millions of civilians displaced as refugees.  A conventional war between Russia and Ukraine won’t last long, but a subsequent guerilla war will be long and bloody.  And the sanctions will create long term damage to the Russian economy.

And if Putin want’s to further “reconstitute” the Soviet Union, the next steps are now under the NATO umbrella. Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia are all members, protected by Article Five.  And the rest of Eastern Europe, vassal states to the Soviet Union for forty-five years, are also in NATO now.  Ukraine may well fall to Putin, at a high cost in blood and treasure.  But if Putin’s goal is to achieve his new Russian Empire, the cost will be World War III.