Disaster
Democrats got surprised on Tuesday. While the vote differences were narrow, the Party took a hit in Virginia, losing all of the statewide elective offices and control of the House of Delegates. Democrats went from holding all of the levers of power, to just the Virginia Senate. And in New Jersey, the Democratic Governor maintained office by the literal “skin of his teeth”, though the final vote tallies aren’t complete. From the Democratic standpoint – it was a disaster, but not a catastrophe (unless you’re a Democrat in Virginia).
It’s a big hit for the Party (and I would argue for the country), but more importantly, there are lessons to be learned, before 2022 and even more before 2024.
One – Forgiveness
I will never forgive the Republican Party for the agony of Trumpism. I hold the leadership accountable for what our nation (and world) has gone through in the past five years, in part because of alleged leaders like Mitch McConnell and Paul Ryan and Kevin McCarthy. At every opportunity to disavow Donald Trump, they did the politically expedient thing, not the courageous thing.
But it really doesn’t matter whether I forgive the Republicans or not. Clearly the “swing vote” has granted absolution (or Amnesia) and is moving on. It doesn’t matter what I think, it matters what the voters are going to do. And the first lesson is the same lesson we should have learned from 2020, when Trump lost, but Republicans “down-ticket” did well. Regardless of what we Democrats think, the “middle “ of the nation wants to get back to business as usual. IF, and that’s a big IF, they hold anyone accountable for Trumpism, it’s Trump himself.
Two – Proof
You will hear Progressives, many my good friends, use the Virginia election as “proof positive” that moderation isn’t the answer. They will, with some cause, say that more Progressive candidates will energize the Democratic vote, and that moderates like Terry McAuliffe or Phil Murphy simply can’t succeed. That lesson may be valid, but here’s the problem.
Progressives haven’t shown proof that they can govern, yet. You will hear the McAuliffe team complain that Congress left Terry hanging, without either the infrastructure or the Build Back Better bill completed. The perception is that Progressives can’t get “things” done (though it just as reasonable an argument that the “conservative” Democrats are at fault). Rather than haggle as to who should bear the blame for the Virginia debacle, Congressional Dems need to complete something.
They need to get the bills done. Build Back Better and Infrastructure need to go to Biden’s desk for signature. Democrats in the field cannot campaign on “we’re almost finished”. They’ve got to prove it, and until they do, voters aren’t convinced anything will happen. We’ve spent enough time waiting for the chaos in Congress to resolve – it’s time to close the deal.
Three – Inexorable History
This may relate to Lesson One. In my view Donald Trump was/is an inflexion point of American History. Things were different before, during, and after the Trump Presidency. Because of that inflexion point, I thought the historic “rules” of elections were altered. But they don’t seem to be changed. Traditionally, the party the won the Presidency loses the Virginia Governorship the next year. That happened. Traditionally the Party that wins the Presidency loses ground in the next Congressional election. That may be coming. Democrats, like Terry McAuliffe, are “swimming upstream”. We better become stronger swimmers, fast.
Four – Governing is Hard
Every executive leader; from President Biden to state Governors, to Mayors and local school superintendents, has tried to govern through the Covid pandemic. They’ve had to do “hard” things: business shutdowns, school closings, mask and vaccine mandates. Those leaders (even Republicans like Mike DeWine in Ohio and Larry Hogan of Maryland) have followed the science, even when it shifted and changed, to protect their citizens.
But America is really tired of Covid. When we missed the opportunity to end our pandemic in 2020, and allowed the development of more contagious variants, many Americans had enough. They decided to “live” with Covid, rather than protect themselves from it. We’ve paid, and are still paying, a huge price for those decisions. 770,000 Americans are dead from Covid, almost 40% more than any other country in the world. More than 8,000 are still dying each week (OurWorld).
But no one likes the bearer of “bad news”. And those leaders have time and time again been that bearer. Governors like Phil Murphy in New Jersey paid the price for that leadership, and while he survived, it’s likely that others, like Mike DeWine in Ohio won’t.
Five – Final Lesson
We are still a nation of three camps. There is the Trumpian Republican Party, and there is no hope for them. They are who they are, and they will not be persuaded otherwise. As a Democrat they are simply a block that will always be against whatever you are for. The key is will they show up and vote, or believe their leader that the elections are rigged. By the way, I haven’t heard any cries of “election fraud” in Virginia.
Then there is the Democratic “block”, a little larger than the Trumpians. They too are going to vote in a mass. But they too need to be motivated to “show up”, and if Democrats don’t show success on the issues they care about, they won’t.
And finally there is still a “middle”, and that middle seems to be the one that decides elections in states like Virginia, Pennsylvania, Michigan (and maybe even Ohio). The middle is sensitive to the “wedge” issues, even ones that are fake like Critical Race Theory (CRT – Bending the Moral Universe). It’s easy for Democrats to say that CRT is a false issue, but that doesn’t change how the middle responds to it. So we need to answer CRT, just as we needed to answer “Defund the Police”.
And we have those answers. We Democrats just have to “stoop down” to answer concerns that we feel are made up problems. We think with Covid, the Insurrection, and all of the economic and real social issues we have, CRT and Defund aren’t worth our time. We’re wrong. We need to answer to win.
