Cool Kids
The “Cool Kids” in the Democratic Senate are the “Progressives”. Senators like Sanders, Warren, Booker, Gillibrand, Padilla and Ohio’s senior Senator, Sherrod Brown, fit the definition. They get to fight for all the issues that the Democratic Party stands for, the “platform” issues from women’s and worker’s rights to climate change. And all of them, with the exception of Sherrod, can do so with the full backing of their constituency. Whether it’s New York or Massachusetts, New Jersey or Vermont, and of course, California; the Progressive agenda is in statewide agreement.
Sherrod Brown is the “outlier”, the Progressive Democrat from the supposedly “Red” state. But Sherrod has found the unique key to winning in Ohio. Unlike most of the other Progressives, he still resonates well with white working men, a group that generally has migrated to Trump world. That working class ethos, as Sherrod says, “Whether you take a shower before work or after”, allows a relatively conservative state to continue to return a Progressive to the Senate. (Tim Ryan, the Democratic Congressman from Youngstown running for the other Ohio seat, is trying to replicate Brown’s successful formula).
Razor Thin
Then there are the “razor thin” Democratic Senators. Whatever their inner personal beliefs, they are more likely to straddle the middle. That’s because they are always on the verge of losing their Senate seat. Senators like Tester of Montana and Kaine and Warner of Virginia are likely moderates because they want to be, but for sure, because they have to be.
They represent states that are supportive of a more moderate agenda. And there are two others that need to be included in this list, the “Senators of the Hour” as the Biden “Build-Back-Better” agenda comes near to a vote: Joe Manchin of West Virginia, and Krysten Sinema of Arizona. There’s been a lot of talk about Manchin. Politically, he is the Democrat elected from the MOST TRUMP state in the nation. Being the center of controversy is a good thing for the former Governor who has won statewide votes six times in his career.
Manchin’s Goals
Manchin wants West Virginians to see three things. First, he wants them to see him as the “bulwark” against the “cool kids”. That’s something he can uniquely do as a member of the razor thin Senate Democratic majority. Every single vote counts, and Manchin is “making hay” in West Virginia by being the “poster child” for holding back his more progressive comrades. Second, he wants West Virginians to know that he has their interest at heart. So when the deal is finally cut, and Manchin signs onto the Democratic plans, you can be sure he will be able to point out multiple places where the good folks of West Virginia will benefit, more than other states.
And finally, the Mountaineers have always valued independence. The birth of their state, in rebellion against “Mother Virginia”, laid the groundwork for West Virginians views. Manchin’s very visible independence plays well back in the home state. And that approach is likely to get him re-elected even as a seventy-seven year old in 2024.
Not Green Anymore
Which leaves Krystin Sinema, the Senator from Arizona. Sinema began her political career not as a Democrat, but in the Green Party. You can’t get more Progressive than that. But as her elective career progressed, she seemed to back away from her Progressive roots. In her successful 2018 campaign to win the US Senate seat, she even refused to use Trump as a campaign foil, and ultimately won the election over Republican Martha McSally 50% to 47.6%.
Sinema is emerging as the ultimate stumbling block to the Progressives in the Senate. Unlike Manchin, who at least has hinted at his negotiating positions on the Build-Back-Better bill, Sinema has only voiced opposition to spending $3.5 Trillion, but refuses to hint at what she would consider. It seems she’s trying to take the Arizona course of deceased Senator John McCain; the “maverick” in his own Republican Party. In Sinema’s mind there’s the clear picture of the ailing McCain in the dark of night, voting “thumbs down” to the Republican plan to destroy the Affordable Care Act.
The problem Sinema has is this. If she really does “thumbs down” the Biden agenda, she’s sure to have a very well financed Democratic primary opponent in 2024, who will hang her from the vote. And yet if she supports the Biden agenda too quickly, she knows that the voting block she depends on, the McCain loving independent Republicans of Arizona, won’t stand behind her.
Find the Play
Like Manchin she needs to find the “play” that will allow her to maintain her Democratic standing, but also be the “Maverick” for the Arizona voting base. She obviously hasn’t figured out how to do that yet. Her snide and cutting remarks – “…Progressives say that can’t find you to negotiate with”, “Well, I’m right here at the elevators now,” won’t work for long. Like Manchin (and Tester, and the Virginians) she needs to find what’s good for Arizonans in “Build-Back-Better” and take that to the bank.
And the “cool kids” better find a way to get those two to play. Otherwise, they all go home to campaign on — failure.