Levers
Power is the ability to make something happen. It can also be the ability to prevent things from happening. But it always is the ability to shape and control events. And that’s the position that members of the Democratic Party in Washington are in.
They are in power, with marginal control of the House of Representatives (an eight vote majority) and an even smaller margin in the Senate (50-50 tie, with the Vice President as the tie-breaking vote). And of course they have full control of the Executive Branch of the Government, with all the “levers” exercised by President Biden.
Except, that’s not really true either. Biden has already conceded some of that control. From the first day of his Administration he confirmed the independence of the Justice Department. This week is a clear example of that, as an investigation begun under the Trump Administration with the clear intent of countering the Mueller Report was allowed to continue. The Durham investigation brought a second indictment this week, alleging that a lawyer, Michael Sussman, lied to the FBI about who he was representing. This was in an interview after Sussman brought information to the Bureau about possible computer linkages between the Trump Organization and a Russian company with close connection to the government, Alpha Bank.
Whether Sussman actually lied or not really isn’t a big deal in a global sense. What is important is that Biden’s White House didn’t interfere with Attorney General Garland’s decision to allow the case to go forward. The previous administration had a well-established record of interference and even pardons of their “friends”.
The Few
So even though the Democrats are “in power”, they are also only a few votes from failure. And that fact empowers individual legislators, both in the Senate and House. It only takes four “defectors” in the House to stop Democratic legislation. And, of course, it only takes one Senator to derail Democratic plans there.
The current Republican Party is whipped into a single discipline. It’s not because of the “vaunted” power of Mitch McConnell, or the simpering favoritism of Kevin McCarthy. The power in the Republican Party is the single-mindedness of the Republican Primary voter. That voter is still a die-hard supporter of Donald Trump’s MAGA liturgy, and any political deviation from that is suicidal. Ask Congressman Anthony Gonzalez from the west side of Cleveland. He voted for the impeachment of Donald Trump after the Insurrection of January 6th, and now has no path to re-election.
Big Tent
When we talk about Democratic Party power in the Congress, we are really talking about the power of every single Senator, and groups of four Congressmen. The “Democrats” are a “Big Tent” party, with a wide range of ideologies. They are the Party of Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, and the Party of Joe Manchin. There are similar contrasts in the House. So getting a legislative “plan” together is tough.
It’s tough because there is no negotiation with the Republican side. They are in “lock-step” opposition to anything that the Democrats offer. Even the Covid Relief Package was passed on a strictly partisan vote. By taking that stand, the Republicans determined to “not participate” in governing. Instead they see steadfast opposition as their means to regaining power. But even more important to them, intransigent opposition is their way of keeping faith with the Republican primary voter – and Trump.
On the List
There is an old legislative “saw”, purportedly by German Chancellor Otto von Bismarck: “Laws are like sausages. It’s better not to seem them made”. But in our twenty-four-seven news cycle, there is no such thing as “not seeing”, so we get to view every twist, turn and ugly moment of Congressional “sausage making”.
And there’s a lot going into this particular sausage. There’s the original infra-structure plan, already agreed to in the Senate. There’s the second infra-structure plan making its way through the House, the $3.5 Trillion package that includes “human infra-structure” as well as bridges, roads and wires.
And there’s the voting rights laws, designed to counter state-by-state Republican voter suppression laws. There are two levels of that as well, the more traditional John Lewis Act, and the all-encompassing For the People Act.
Add to all of that a looming debt ceiling vote. The United States Congress made it a requirement to vote on increasing the debt payment, even though the reason the debt increases is because the Congress has already passed laws spending more money. So there’s the annual approval to increase the amount, a vote Republicans vow to oppose.
Sausage Making
So don’t get fooled into thinking that the negotiations in the Democratic Caucus in either the House or the Senate is “just” about voting rights, or infra-structure, or the debt ceiling. All of those topics are on the table for a “universal” deal, particularly when it comes to the critical votes of Joe Manchin and Krystin Sinema in the Senate.
Biden wants the $3.5 Trillion plan – Manchin is talking about $1.5 Trillion. Manchin is opposed to the For the People Act, but in favor of the John Lewis Voting Rights Act. But Manchin (and Sinema) would have to allow “voting rights” to be added to the list of items that can be exempted from the sixty vote filibuster standard to pass legislation. The list is currently short: executive appointments and budget reconciliation. Biden will need to convince at least those two Senators to add voting rights, and that may require a “price” to pay somewhere else.
Interstate Gridlock
And all of that has to balance the equally powerful Bernie Sanders and progressive coalition in the House of Representatives. “Herding cats” is comparatively easy. It’s a lot more like driving across downtown Columbus. I-70 westbound has four to five lanes ripping through the east side of town. As downtown approaches, westbound narrows to a single lane, lined by concrete barricades. Meanwhile another single lane splits to downtown, and two more head north on I-71. And in the background “Siri” is often telling you to go the opposite way. It’s no surprise that there’s always a slowdown getting anywhere, and often accidents stalling traffic completely.
The sausage is being made. And just like I-70, there will be accidents, slowdowns, and sometime gridlock. But ultimately most people make it across town, and move onto the west side. And that’s where the Democrats in Washington are right now: sitting in the jam, waiting to find a single lane to slide through.
