History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes – attributed to Mark Twain
What’s UP
There are already over 2000 air travel “incidents” in the United States this year. What’s an incident? When a flight is disrupted and sometimes even re-routed because a passenger threatens or “loses it” with flight attendants. This weekend, a passenger tried to open the door – in flight. In another “incident”, an eighteen-year-old on a private plane tried to take over the controls and dive into the ground.
Both flights landed safely – but what’s going on?
In the meantime crime rates seem to be increasing nationwide. Here in the suburbs, the “Ring Camera Networks” are going nuts. Three or four times a week, there’s the “bing” of a late night warning – someone breaking into cars or checking garage doors. In the “big city” we see folks brazenly stealing goods out of stores on camera, with little concern for bystanders. And on an even more serious note, the gun violence of pre-pandemic days has returned. Here in Columbus more than 95 are dead from guns, twice the 2020 pandemic level, and nearing the 105 killed for the entire year in pre-pandemic 2019.
Crime is up, violence is up, crazy behavior on airplanes is up, so what’s up?
Doomed to Repeat
We’ve been here before. It was in the 1920’s, after a World War, and a global pandemic. The economy survived the post-War, post-Pandemic downturn, and began to boom again. Unemployment, as high as 11% in 1921, fell below 5% by 1923. There seemed to be more work than there was workers; sound familiar?
And, like today, there was a sharp division in the nation. The restrictions of World War I on alcohol, used to preserve grain “for the troops”, added momentum to the growing Temperance Movement (headquartered right here in Ohio, the “Anti-Saloon League” in Westerville). On January 17th, 1920, the Eighteenth Amendment banned intoxicating alcohols from the United States, criminalizing the “normal” behavior of millions.
What we learned less about in American History, was the “mask wars” that went on through 1919 in many United States cities. Like the masker versus anti-masker struggles of our current pandemic, many cities in the US fought the same battle during the Great Flu Pandemic. Perhaps the ultimate “scoff-laws” of the time, were the “gentlemen” who abided the law by wearing masks, but with holes carefully made so they could continue to smoke their cigars. They could have just worn them around their chins – we saw plenty of that just a few months ago.
Joie de Vivre
So we remember the “Eighth Grade” history of the 1920’s: the booming industries, the “Speak Easy” saloons, “Flappers”, the soaring stock markets; The Roaring Twenties. But what we probably remember best about the 1920’s was the rise of gangsterism. Sure, there was the black market for alcohol, millions to be made in crime. And there was (like today) the increase in the number of high powered weapons, then brought home from the war. But there also seemed to be a national “recklessness”, about drinking, about social behavior, and about crime as well. The gangsters became the “heroes”.
Maybe it was the “joie de vivre”, the excitement of surviving all the turmoil of war and pandemic. Perhaps it was that release that led some to take even greater risks, criminal risks. Or maybe it was simply a response to the restrictions, the “good behavior” during the World War and Pandemic. The binds of national “obligation” were released.
We’ve been here before – political division, social expansion, economic explosion, vast quantities of weapons, weakened legal obligations.
Rhyming
Of course we remember the apocalyptic end of that story as well. The wild excesses of the stock market, soaring up 400% during the decade, ended with the crash on Black Tuesday. That was the first domino to fall, bringing down the entire Nation into the Great Depression of the 1930’s. Add to that the impact of drought and over-farming causing the Dust Bowl and the relocation of millions of Americans.
Today the stock market has more than doubled in the past decade. And climate change is impacting many facets of the nation, from droughts and heat waves in the West, to dramatic storms and floods in the Midwest and East. The “roadmap” of the Roaring Twenties looks a lot like the one we’re on now – except most folks don’t know what a roadmap is any more: “Siri, I need directions to the future”.
Maybe we should be asking Siri, “Have I been here before?”
PS – The original 1920’s had a star pitcher and home run hitter – Babe Ruth of the Red Sox/Yankees. Our 20’s has one too – Otani Shohei of the LA Angels!!!
