The Polls
A plurality of Americans, 44%, do not “identify” with a political party. They see themselves as independent. Of the rest, 30% see themselves as Democrats, and 25% Republican.
But when asked which party they “lean” towards, 49% of Americans over 18 identify as “Democrat or Democratic leaning”. 40% identify as Republican or Republican leaning, and 11% see themselves as completely independent. That 9% Democratic lead in “leaners” is above the “norm”. Democrats typically have a 4 to 6% lead.
So when you slice the pie almost half is “independent”. The other half is unevenly divided between Blue and Red. But the candidates for major political office in America are determined by the two political parties, now representing just barely more than half of voters. The 30% of identified Democrats and 25% of identified Republicans will determine who gets to run for office.
It’s a major dilemma for any American candidate. To get to run you have to win a primary, and that election is among only the most committed partisans. But to win the general election, where everyone can vote, somehow that candidate must gain “the leaners”, less partisan and likely more moderate, as well.
Slicing the Slices
So to win a Republican Party primary, a candidate must win 12.5% of the overall vote. And Republican candidates have clearly made the decision that at least 12.5% still support the 45th President of the United States.
That’s a “no-risk” position for them. The “slice of the slice” who are “45’ers” have made it very clear where they stand. There is no doubt: ask Liz Cheney, Mitt Romney, or a host of local Republican office holders who know that the 2020 election wasn’t “fixed”.
And the Republican caucus of the House of Representatives is a simple reflection of their primary electorate. So when House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy seems to uncomfortably straddle the political fence, he’s trying to appeal to his caucus members. His hope: that the 2022 election will follow historic precedent, and that he will be elected to become Speaker of the House.
McCarthy’s “fence sitting” was most apparent on the issue of the January 6th Commission. His chosen negotiator, Congressman John Katko of New York, worked out an agreement with Democrats. This was with the McCarthy’s knowledge and blessing. But when the former President sent word that the caucus “must” oppose the Commission, McCarthy, without apparent regret, threw Katko “under the bus” and came out against it.
Doubling Down
From a longer view, the Republican Party seems committed to being a minority party. They are allowing the “45-ers”, around 12.5% of the total electorate, to determine their candidates and positions. They are committed to a nationwide policy of voter restriction, and actual interference in free and fair Elections. If their actions were occurring in another nation, we would be talking about sending in monitors to make sure the voting processes were fair.
And the Republican Party is in the process of “purging” any member who does not agree with the “45-ers”. It’s not just denying Liz Cheney a leadership position in the House of Representatives. They are organizing primary challenges to many “moderate” Republican candidates, challenges that are likely to be successful.
Look at who’s running for the Republican nomination for Senator in Missouri. The two leading candidates: former Governor Eric Greitens, who resigned from office after accusations of sexual assault and blackmail. And attorney Mark McCloskey, best known for brandishing an AR style rifle at Black Lives Matter protestors passing in front of his home. What they both have in common: oaths of fealty to the former President.
Pygmy Elephants
It’s all about the 12.5%, and perhaps some of the rest of those that identify Republican. But it clearly ignores the real “elephant” in the Republican room. What about the vast majority of the American electorate – some Democrat but the rest “independent”? The Republican strategy is to keep them from voting, win their small slice of the pie, and declare victory.
And that’s the American dilemma right now. The gerrymandering of political districts have created state legislatures that are dominated by extremist “45-ers” in many states, including here in Ohio. Those legislatures are “codifying” an exclusive voting system, and in some states, taking legislative power over the election results.
Instead of trying to win a majority, they are shaping elections where the minority can claim victory. If that sounds like Trump 2020, it should. It’s the next step in the “Stop the Steal” campaign that led to the Insurrection, a “legal” way of gaining control without a majority of the votes. It didn’t end at the Capitol steps on January 6th. It just moved to the hallways of capitol buildings in Phoenix, Madison, Atlanta, and yes, here in Columbus as well.
The shirtless idiot wearing horns became the “poster boy” for the January 6th Insurrection. But the real leaders of the “rebellion” now are the shirt and tied legislators in state capitols around the country. The insurrection continues.
We have been warned.
