“Ohio has been moving away from Democrats in such a significant way” – Kasey Hunt, MSNBC
Brutally Red
Hey Ohio, it’s your turn now. Ohio is a brutally “Red” state in many ways. There are sections of the state, particularly in the West towards the Indiana border, that are “pure Republican”. They have been since the Civil War, and nothing will change their voting characteristics. There’s a reason that Congressman Jim Jordan isn’t worried about much of anything when it comes to his burgeoning scandal: he knows that he will have his District’s support, no matter what. Besides, it will all be “fake news” and “Lib” George Clooney’s movie to them anyway.
And Appalachia Ohio, the full quarter of the state south of I-70 and east of SR-23, is politically adrift. Many voters, who used to be “Vern Rife Blue Dog Democrats”, have become Trump supporters. And, much like their relatives in West Virginia, they are struggling to see what the Democratic Party has to offer them.
If that sounds racial, in part it is. But it’s more than just that. Appalachia not only lost its coal mining industry, but was devastated by the opioid epidemic as well. And the government answer, Democratic or Republican, was to shut down the “pill mills”, the pain clinics throughout the Southeastern part of the state. While that stopped the “legal” pill distribution, it did little to deal with the addiction that was created. So those addicts became prey to other forms of illegal drugs, including heroin and fentanyl and homemade crystal meth. Democrats didn’t help, and neither did Republicans, which left those folks to make their political determinations based on the “wedge” issues: abortion, race, guns, and religion. Other than a “liberal bastion” in Athens, home of the Ohio University, they choose the GOP.
Marginally Blue
So if rural Ohio is Republican, and so is Appalachia, that what’s left for Democrats to win?
The votes are in the cities: Cleveland, Akron, Youngstown, Columbus, Toledo, Dayton, Cincinnati. That’s where elections are won and lost in Ohio. And for Democrats they is some semblance of good news. The suburbs surrounding the cities, areas like Delaware County north of Columbus and Warren County north of Cincinnati, are no longer as “red” as they once were.
If – and that’s a HUGE if – a Democrat could win the cities big, and then break near even in the suburbs – then the Red West and the marginal Southeast just won’t matter.
It’s a recipe for a Democratic win. There’s an ongoing problem with Ohio though, and that is the candidates of the Democratic Party have failed to inspire an election turnout among their own voters. In short, Democrats, even Joe Biden and Hillary Clinton, won the cities, but they didn’t bring out the massive numbers of votes required to overcome the rest of the Red state. Those votes exist – the registrations prove it. But they aren’t coming out to vote “Blue”.
Look at Georgia. Even with the voter suppression laws enacted by the State Legislature in the last few months, the Republican Party is still in trouble. In the 2022 election, Georgia is likely to have Senator Raphael Warnock and Stacey Abrams on the ballot – both dynamic Black candidates that excite Democratic voters. It’s no wonder that Republican Governor Brian Kemp is doing everything he can to stifle Democratic turnout.
It’s Possible
So who are the Democrats in Ohio who that will inspire turnout? Sure, there’s the perennial Senate winner Democrat Sherrod Brown – but he won’t be on the ballot in 2022. And the Party doesn’t have anyone else (so far) that excites “the base” to come out and vote. It’s not just that there doesn’t seem to be a statewide candidate of color, it’s there hasn’t been any recent candidate of any race that fires folks up.
So maybe Congressman Tim Ryan can fill the “Sherrod shoes” in 2022 in the Senate race. And maybe Mayor Nan Whaley of Dayton can excite voters in a run for the Governorship. But Ohio also needs a statewide candidate of color to change the voting dynamic. We don’t need Stacey Abrams, but we certainly need a ticket that’s inclusive of more than just white people. Otherwise Kasey Hunt might be right.
Mike Coleman (former Columbus Mayor) – where are you??
