The Midterms

Democratic Doom

The media doomsayers are already out:  “Democrats will lose control of both the House and the Senate in 2022” they cry, “and it’s their own fault”.  I watched MSNBC’s morning personality Joe Scarborough attack Democratic Congressman Sean Patrick Maloney on a Friday interview.  Scarborough is a former conservative Republican Congressman from Florida. He demanded that Maloney answer for Democratic vulnerabilities on “socialism” and “defunding the police”.  

Maloney is the head of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DSCC). He’s in charge of getting Democrats elected to the House of Representatives.  He had the temerity to call Scarborough out for using “Republican talking points”:  that the Democrats are all “socialists” and want to cut all funding to police departments.  Scarborough lashed back, saying that Maloney would be to blame if Democrats lose the House.

Democrats don’t need to defend socialism, because they’re not socialists.  But there is vulnerability in the “defunding” issue.  Democratic leadership quickly pushed back from “defunding” when it came up in the Black Lives Matter protests, but their willingness to look at “repurposing” funds to solve non-law enforcement issues can be misinterpreted.  “Defunding” is a loud slogan, and hard to move away from.  It is a sticky point for the Party.

And finally, there is the “common wisdom”.  “Every President,” commentators like Scarborough intone, “loses seats in the Congress during the mid-term elections”.  And history is on Scarborough’s side.  In nineteen mid-term elections since World War II the opposition Party has gained seats. There were only three exceptions.

Precedent or Exception 

In politics, the exceptions become the difference.  Looking at those exceptions may well give Democrats hope to hold onto the Congress, and in fact increase their margins.

The first exception is in 1934, two years after Franklin Roosevelt was first elected President.  In 1932 Democrats won a massive landslide both in the Presidency and in the Congress.  Two years later, they padded their lead in both, adding nine seats in both chambers.  All of this is as a result of the early success of the New Deal legislation, as the United States struggled to emerge from the depths of the Great Depression.

Roosevelt and the Congress got a lot done.  They gave Americans hope for the future over the bleak present.  That should sound vaguely familiar. Biden and the Congress have rapidly passed massive COVID relief, accelerated the vaccination program to reach almost all Americans, and now are working on an even bigger infrastructure legislation.

The second exception was the 1998 midterm of Bill Clinton’s Presidency.  This was in the heart of Bill Clinton’s sex scandal, but somehow the Democrats managed marginal gains in the House.  The analysis:  Americans didn’t like what Clinton did, but they liked what he was getting done.  And they were frustrated with Congressional focus on the scandal.  

And the third exception was the 2002 midterm.  George Bush, a marginally elected President, was strong in leading the nation in response to 9/11, and the nation responded approvingly by adding to Republican members of both Houses.

Where Biden Stands

So will the mid-term elections of 2022 follow the pattern of the nineteen, or the three.  My prediction is the latter, and here’s why.

Joe Biden, like Roosevelt, faced multiple national crises as he entered office.  The economy was struggling from the impact of the pandemic, and the nation was suffering from the actual disease.  Like Roosevelt’s famous first 100 Days, Biden immediately set powerful goals and took action to alter the nation’s course.   In Biden’s first 100 Days, over 84 million Americans have been fully vaccinated with another almost 50 million having at least one shot.  The $1.9 trillion COVID relief package was passed through Congress on a straight party line vote, even though it was overwhelmingly popular with the electorate.

And Biden is proposing a $2 trillion infrastructure plan, that is likely to pass in some form through the Congress this year.  The nation went from the disruption and disfunction of the Trump Administration to the carefully plotted action of the Biden Administration.  That alone may be enough to increase Democratic Congressional seats.

And like George W. Bush, Biden entered in the midst of the national crisis of Insurrection.  How Biden ultimately handles that situation, as well as the economy and the pandemic, will help determine what happens in the 2022 mid-terms more than “historic precedent”.  

And finally, many Americans are recognizing that the Republican Party in Congress has become the Party of obstruction.  That, in the middle of the multiple problems facing the nation, puts them in the same position as they were in 1998.  They are focused on something that the Nation doesn’t care about.  They may well pay an electoral price for that.

It’s Still Trump

But overriding all of that, is the factor that will be the most important in the 2022 elections.  The Republican Party is clearly still the Party of Donald Trump.  Republican voter turnout is “all about” Trump himself.  We saw that in the past three elections.  In 2016 Trump managed to increase Republican turnout enough to eke out an Electoral College majority, and gain majorities in the House and Senate. 

But with Trump not on the ticket in 2018, Republican turnout fell of sharply, and Democrats gained control of the House and made in-roads in the Senate.  With Trump running again in 2020, Republicans gained some House seats back, but failed to regain control.  In the Senate, the GOP lost control by the narrowest margin.

So in 2022, the Party of Trump will be running without the “flag bearer” on the ticket.  Those that were driven to vote by Trump, won’t show up.  All of that puts Democrats in a strong position to increase both their House and Senate margins.  

But it all depends on whether the Democratic voters will be as motivated to vote “for Democrats” as much as they were to vote “against Trump” in 2018.  If Democrats come out to vote, and the Trump voters don’t – the outcome is clear.  It’s politics, and anything can happen.  But the lessons of history are more nuanced than simply saying “All Presidents lose Congressional seats in the mid-terms”.  It’s not all Presidents, and there’s good reason to believe that it won’t be this President either.