Men in the Middle
Bill Cassidy, a Republican Senator from Louisiana, is a “man in the middle” in our current political world. The crucible of politics in America is the United States Senate. The Democrats hold fifty seats, and so do the Republicans. The Senate is “Democratic” by virtue of the tie-breaking vote of Vice President Kamala Harris. If America is divided – the Senate is the image of division in the mirror.
America has been a nation of growing division since 2010. There are lots of reasons. A Black man elected as President of the United States. The Affordable Care Act passed without a single Republican vote. Majority Leader McConnell refused to allow Democratic legislation to reach the floor of the Senate for “up and down” votes. The economic divide between the “haves and haves not” increasing. And it is the view of many Americans that the nation they “knew” in the past has irrevocably changed.
The Tea Party and the rise of Donald Trump were results of this division. So was the Women’s March on Washington, the Black Lives Matter movement and the outlandish QAnon conspiracy. The most recent outcomes were the repudiation of “Trumpism” at the polls in 2020, and the “Insurrection” against the US Capitol on January 6th.
Where Stands the GOP
So here we are. For those who think this is settled – concluded with the prolonged results of the Presidential election of November – it only takes a look at the Republicans in the House last week. They tried to remove their Caucus Chairman Liz Cheney for voting in favor of impeachment. And they gave a full “pass” to Marjorie Taylor Greene for sanctioning QAnon nonsense. It’s not over.
The next expression of our division will take place this coming week, in the United States Senate. The House of Representatives voted to impeach Donald J. Trump, then President of the United States, for inciting the Insurrection on the Capitol. They did this while he was in office, as a statement of his collaboration in the “crime”, and as a warning to keep him controlled until the Biden inauguration. They achieved the latter, but Joe Biden was sworn in on the Capitol steps surrounded by more military forces than any President since Lincoln in 1861.
The House also wanted to establish the precedent that no President can “send the mob” against the legislature to enforce his will. Regardless of whether Trump is in office, that precedent is more than just incidental. A significant minority of our Nation still believe that Trump was right. That leaves us without accountability for what occurred, and many months from judicial determinations.
So once again the focus will be on Donald Trump, the nexus of American division, held in the symbolic home of that division, the Senate. McConnell is still there, but muted by his minority role. So how does the Senate “breakdown” for this most significant Constitutional process?
Your Radio Dial
Going from right to left (on your radio dial as the Cleveland Brown’s radio announcer would say) we start with those Senators who are full throated Trump supporters: Hawley, Cruz, Kennedy of Louisiana, Paul and Graham. Ol’ Lindsey is an interesting case. He’s a man who the night of January 6th detached himself from Trump (“I’m done” he said on the floor of the Senate). But he then quickly moved back into his chosen position of “Trump Whisperer”.
That group and others are more interested in inheriting the Trump mantle, and more importantly his voter base, than the right or wrong of the case before them. There is no changing their stand.
Then there are the Republicans who voted with Rand Paul to avoid the trial. They agreed with him that the Constitution does not allow for a “private citizen” to be tried in the Senate. Regardless that all the legal precedent, and the Founding Fathers themselves, disagree with that interpretation, it gives those Senators a “fig leaf” to hide behind. No reason to go into the facts of incitement or insurrection (for a much longer discourse on “fig leaves” – click here).
The Middle
Senator Bill Cassidy was one of these. And Sunday on NBC’s Meet the Press Cassidy said: “…that vote was in a moment in time…”. He went on to suggest that it wouldn’t prevent him from judging the entire case, not just the Constitutionality based on Rand Paul and the defense lawyers’ assertions. Of those Senators there are a few, including perhaps Portman of Ohio, Shelby of Alabama, Grassley of Iowa, Burr of North Carolina and McConnell himself. Portman, Shelby and Burr have already announced that they will not be running for re-election, freeing them from the Trump voting majority in the Republican Party. There may be more in this “middle ground”.
Next there are the “five”: the five Republicans Senators who voted against the Paul motion, and for the trial. Toomey of Pennsylvania (retiring), Murkowski of Alaska, Romney of Utah, Collins of Maine, and Sasse of Nebraska all bucked their former President and earned the political enmity of their local and state Republican Parties. While a vote to have a trial is not the same as a vote for conviction, it does suggest that they don’t need a “fig leaf” and want to hear the evidence.
A Group of One
And then there is the “lonely” but ultimately powerful one Democrat near the middle, Joe Manchin. Almost 69% of his state, West Virginia, voted for Donald Trump. 69%, that’s more than two out of three voters. Even the elected Democratic Governor, Jim Justice, switched to Republican while in office AND was re-elected. From a wholly Democratic state of the 1990’s, the state of Robert Byrd and Jay Rockefeller; Joe Manchin is literally the last Democrat standing. Manchin is well aware of his dual roles. He is the decisive vote for the Democratic Party in the Senate. And he is always in a perilous position as a Democrat representing the most Republican state in the Union.
Manchin stood with the Democratic Party when necessary. He voted to remove Trump from office in the first impeachment trial, and voted against some of Trump’s Supreme Court appointees. But while he voted to continue this trial, he has been outspoken about how “ill advised” this impeachment process is.
The Choice
And finally there are the other forty-nine Democrats in the Senate, lined in lock-step for conviction of Donald Trump, and hopeful to ban him from running for office in the future.
It takes sixty-seven Senators to convict Donald Trump, and after that, only a majority to ban him from running for further office. It’s unlikely that seventeen Republican Senators will determine that Donald Trump should be convicted and removed, despite the ample evidence to show his involvement in incitement. His actions during the Insurrection were the definitions of nonfeasance, misfeasance and malfeasance.
The Republicans in the House of Representatives have clearly made themselves the “Party of Trump”. As disgraced Congresswoman Majorie Taylor Greene stated, “The Party belongs to Donald Trump, and no one else”. It is only fitting that the Republicans in the Senate get the opportunity to make that choice as well. And in the next few weeks, they will.
