Liberty

Recent History

The events of the past few weeks were predictable, but never the less near catastrophic.  We entered the New Year with millions of Americans questioning the results of the November election.  The oddity of that is they only seemed to question the outcome of the Presidential vote.  The rest of the results, which favored Republicans in most cases, were just fine.  And few of the sceptics seemed to notice that contradiction.

Then, only five days into the year, we had the stunning results of the Georgia Senate runoff.  By slim margins, the Democratic candidates managed to win the twin elections, and change the power structure of the Federal Government.  That January 5^th election put the Democratic Party in control of the Senate, by the new Vice President’s tie-breaking vote.  With Democrats already controlling the House and the Presidency, it was a full change in power.  But in all three institutions it was by such narrow margins – a galactic shift by the smallest of forces.

Insurrection

On January 6^th we paid the price for the lies, and the false expectations.  President Trump called “his people” to protest in Washington, then sent them to Congress to stop the Electoral certification.  There is a legal expression, “knew or should have known”.  Donald Trump knew, or should have known, the fuse he was lighting on the National Mall that day.  He acted, at best, in “reckless disregard” for what might happen from the crowd he was stoking.  He lit the fire, and it exploded into the flames that nearly consumed the Congress.

Two weeks later, we know how close we came to the mob dragging our leaders out of the Capitol and into the streets.  What might have happened then is too terrible to contemplate.  And what Donald Trump would have done, what advantage he might have taken, we don’t know.  And, in all likelihood, neither does he.  While some in the crowd had “missions” planned in advance, I don’t really think the former President had a grand strategy.  He was “pissed” because he lost, and he was taking it out on everyone.

Napoleon with a Long Tie

Now Donald Trump is exiled, like Napoleon, to his “Elba Island” at Mara Lago.  But like Napoleon’s first exile, he really isn’t “gone”.  He’s brooding, a still powerful force in American politics.  Look at his muted supporters still on Facebook.  Less than twenty-four hours after Joe Biden’s inauguration, they already are looking back at the “good old days” when Trump was in charge.  He’s not been sent to Napoleon’s final exile, St. Helena, a speck in the middle of the South Atlantic.  Trump is still right here.   

And the leaders of the Republican Party get to make choices.  They could choose to further disarm the “Trumpian Wing” of their Party, by taking away an opportunity for Trump to run again.  They could complete his impeachment by convicting him, removing the perks of his “retirement”, and banning him from further political participation.  

But that risks the enmity of the Trumpian voter.  In our gerrymandered democracy, the influence of Trump on Republican primary voters remains enormous.  So Republican leadership must do more than just take away Trump’s political rights. They must find a way to reach his voters, outside of his powerful communication structures of right-wing and social media.  If they don’t then a whole new generation of cynical Josh Hawley’s will find themselves empowered.

Secession

Some Trump supporters suggest that they will split off from the Republican Party.  They will secede to a new political vehicle, the party of Trump, the “Liberty” Party.  Our two-party system is embedded deeply into our political structures.  Ask the Green or Libertarian parties, or any of the other “alternative” choices.  But the “Liberty Party” wants to subsume the Republican Party, much as the Republican Party subsumed the Whig Party in the 1850’s.  Their goal:  to take over those embedded structures so that the Republican Party becomes the “alternative” and the “Liberty” becomes the second of our two-party system.

As a Democrat, it would be easy to cheer for a split in the Republican Party.  In the short term, it would improve Democratic chances, a three-way split of the votes with the Democrats at a huge advantage.  But in the long run a “Liberty” Party represents a threat to democracy, the same threat that the mob represented on January 6^th.  A “Liberty” Party empowers the racism and authoritarianism that we pretended didn’t exist in the American political system, but made itself very clear in the past few months.  

So I hope the Republican leadership chooses wisely in the next few weeks.  They have an opportunity to further exile Trumpism.  They have a chance to cooperate with the new leadership in the nation, to advance all of our causes.  And they can do it all under the cover of: “those ‘damn’ Democrats are in charge”.  The Republican leaders would risk losing the short-term gains of appealing to the Trumpists.  But the more they pander to them, the greater the long-term risks of becoming an Orwellian “Liberty” Party.   

And we all know where that leads.