It’s Monday, January 18th, 2021, three days before the Inauguration of Joe Biden and Kamala Harris as President and Vice President of the United States. The question of this day: what is left for Donald Trump to do as President? How will this “episode” of the “Apprentice” finally end?
Family and Friends
We know he’s going to issue another round of pardons. Rumors are that there is a list, over one hundred, that President Trump is ready to announce. That’s traditional for any outgoing President. But Trump’s pardons are likely to include those close to him. The man has to take care of his family. Donald Junior, Ivanka, Eric and their assorted partners all have some level of risk for Federal indictment. It’s unimaginable that President Trump wouldn’t grant them all blanket pardons for anything they might have done since he came down the Golden Escalator.
And then there’s the “friends”. Start with Trump’s attorney Rudy Giuliani, already under Federal investigation by the Southern District of New York. There’s a whole lot you can say about Rudy: he’s been the prime driver of the “stolen election” campaign. And before that, he was the central figure in the Ukraine scandal. (Hey, that’s both of the impeachments!!) Last week Trump begrudged the $20000/day fee that Rudy was charging, but now the former Mayor of New York has agreed to represent the President in his latest impeachment trial in front of the Senate.
It’s hard to know what’s a “great Trump deal” and what’s a “quid pro quo”, but either way it’s very likely that the President will be presenting a “golden ticket” to “the Mayor”.
Stephen Miller, the architect of the Muslim Ban and child separation might also qualify for a “get out of jail free” card, along with a slew of administrators in the Department of Homeland Security. In 2009 when President Obama took office, there were lots of questions about whether his administration would pursue the Bush Administration creators of the “torture memo” and those that implemented it around the world. Obama made the decision to stop the policies but not prosecute. While Biden is definitely forward looking, there’s no guarantee that he will make the same choice.
Get the News Cycle
By the way, all those Federal Pardons are exactly that, pardons for federal crimes. They sideline the Biden Justice Department, but do nothing to stop the state prosecutors from bringing charges. That puts Eric and Don Jr back in the target zone, as the New York Attorney General and the Manhattan’s District Attorney Cyrus Vance aim at the Trump family and organization’s tax irregularities.
This is really nothing new. Since before election day, all of these pardons were anticipated.
But there are two pardons that would definitely create “a stir”. And if either of these are issued, don’t be surprised if they show up Tuesday night, or maybe even Wednesday morning as Trump walks out the door of the White House for his farewell flight to Mara Lago on Air Force One. He’ll try to upstage the Biden news cycle, one more time.
Pardon Yourself
The first is Constitutionally questionable: can Donald Trump issue a pardon to himself? The Presidential Pardon power is virtually unlimited in the Constitution. Article 2, § 2 states: “… he shall have power to grant reprieves and pardons for offenses against the United States”. There are no “buts or ifs” in the wording. However, it is a reasonable argument that the Founding Fathers thought that a “self-pardon” was clearly out-of-bounds, an extension of sovereign power that crosses the line into royalty.
Why would he pardon himself? We already know that Donald Trump was “individual one”, an unindicted co-conspirator with Michael Cohen in the Stormy Daniels case. We also know that he could well be named in the Trump tax cases in New York, which could also have Federal ramifications.
And President Donald Trump could face a Federal charge of inciting insurrection for his actions on January 6th. Those charges carry a penalty of ten years in Federal prison, fines, and bar holding Federal office in the future. It’s a “Resisters” dream: Donald Trump going to Federal prison.
And there is another, more current political ramification of a Trump “self-pardon”. From a legal standpoint, it might be worth a shot. What’s there to lose? If there were a Federal indictment against him, a self-pardon would be the first line of defense, a line that wouldn’t be available if Trump didn’t pardon himself. Maybe the Supreme Court would ultimately allow it, but if not, Trump’s case is no worse.
Count the Votes
But there is a second consideration. Trump is already impeached, and facing Trial in the Senate. There are likely fifty Senators aligned with the Democrats who will vote for removal. There are currently only a few Republicans who might join them, not enough to reach the sixty-seven votes need for a two-thirds majority and conviction. But if the President acts in such an imperious manner, pardoning himself as he walks out the door, that might be enough to change the count.
What’s at stake here? An impeached and convicted President is stripped of his pension, $200,000 a year. He’s also stripped of his travel and office allowances, and could be left without Secret Service protection as well. Trump’s financial woes are well known. He owes Deutsche Bank $400 million coming due in the next year, and the Bank has already said they are ending their relationship with him. So there’s no extending that loan.
But the real issue: a simple majority vote after the two-thirds conviction, would bar the convicted President from any future “position of trust” in the government. In short – Donald Trump can never run for President again. And that’s a financial matter. Trump is depending on his fundraising ability to maintain the “station to which he is accustomed”. The Trump “campaign” raised $270 million AFTER they lost the election in November. If he can never run again, how will he continue to raise money?
Payback for Trumpers
And there is one more Pardon that could alter the vote count in the Senate. The FBI has already filed charges against hundreds who participated in the Insurrection of January 6th. If Donald Trump really wants the Inauguration Day news cycle, here’s the ticket. Issue a blanket pardon for anyone who participated in the Insurrection. After all, they did it to “Stop the Steal” and they did it for Trump. There is no question. He has the power to pardon them all, and there is no Federal justice “work around”. The local jurisdiction, the District of Columbia, is a Federal district and unlike the states, must honor Federal pardons.
But if that action doesn’t seal conviction in the Senate, then Donald Trump really does have blackmail, “Kompromat,” on far too many Republican Senators besides just Lindsey Graham.
And the best part of all these “plot lines” – the end of the season is almost here. We’ll find out “before we know it” – all by Wednesday at noon.
