Insurrection
The more we learn about Wednesday’s assault on the Capitol, the more at risk we should feel. What looked on the screen like a high school prank gone far wrong turned out to be so much more serious. Five people died in the attack, including a Capitol Police Officer who was doing his job, denying entry to the masses invading the building he was sworn to protect. It was no accident; he was hit in the head with a fire extinguisher.
And one woman was killed. She was part of the mob, smashing through the doors to the House of Representatives. The police officers were barring them, buying time for Members of the House to evacuate the chamber. The rioters looked through the glass windows and saw guns pointed at them. They continued to batter the glass until it shattered. The woman jumped up to go through the window, and was shot.
And we now know that some of the rioters had plastic handcuffs. They were looking for the Leadership, and particularly Vice President Pence. They were told by President Trump that Pence “refused” to give Trump the election. Protestors were shouting “Hang Pence”, and gallows was actually erected on the Capitol grounds. While many of the rioters might have been “swept along” into the Building, for some, it was an assault, with a mission, and a goal. Bombs were present, as well as Molotov Cocktails.
This wasn’t a greased pig let loose in the halls, nor alarm clock set in the lockers. This was an attack, and while many of those participating surely didn’t know it, those masses were providing cover for a real threat to our nation’s leadership.
Proximate Cause
There is a legal term called “proximate cause”. It describes the “first domino” knocked over, the beginning event that if absent, the whole rest of the chain of actions fails to occur. If the drunk driver doesn’t get behind the wheel, the car doesn’t swerve, the accident doesn’t happen, and the child doesn’t get killed. The direct cause is the car swerving, the proximate cause is the impaired driver.
What is the proximate cause of the attack on the Capitol? Certainly, there were many who arrived in Washington with some assault in mind. The bombs weren’t made on the spur of the moment, the plastic handcuffs weren’t stolen from the Capitol Police (they didn’t have them – and were strangely unprepared for the attack).
Not everyone who listened to the President and the other speakers at the rally near the White House marched to the Capitol. Many, including folks that I know, listened to the orations, cheered the speakers, then stayed in the National Mall. Others did march to the Capitol as the speakers told them to do, but stayed outside. We see them crowded around the building in the media.
But for many, they followed the directions given to them by the President and his representatives. They were told to fight for their cause, that the election was rigged, and that the Congress was about to confirm a corrupt candidate. Donald Trump and his subordinates did not lead the march to the Capitol. They did not batter the doors down, nor desecrate the floors with feces. But as surely as if they were in the front, they “lit the fuse”. They literally gave the marching orders and told the crowd to go to the Capitol and stop the vote. They were the proximate cause.
Attack on the Legislature
So, Congress is faced with a choice. The sitting President of the United States literally launched a physical attack on the legislative branch. The lives of the Congressmen and Senators were at risk. If a few staffers hadn’t had the presence of mind to grab the boxes of Electoral certifications, the actual process of determining the vote would have been even more delayed. While there are copies, if would have been another day at least, before the Congress could have ratified the Electoral vote. What might have happened in that day? And if the Vice President, or the Speaker, or others had fallen captive to the mob, what might have occurred?
Congress was attacked. The President of the United States remains in office, for now ten days. What steps should the Congress take to protect itself from an Executive who isn’t just making threats, but actually carrying them out?
Remove the President
There is an easy choice. The Vice President and the Cabinet can remove the President, and make Vice President Pence the Acting President. There’s a twenty-one-day window for the President to appeal to Congress, but of course, the new President will be inaugurated by then. But the Vice President shows no stomach for that. It’s a political choice more than a Constitutional one. Pence plans to run for President himself in 2024. He’s already “in trouble” with the “Trump base”. After four years of subservient fealty to Donald Trump, Pence failed to do what Trump wanted. Pence did not subvert the law, ignore the election results, and try to proclaim Trump the next President.
Mike Pence is making a political decision. He doesn’t want to be the “final nail” in the Trump coffin, because he perceives it will cost him the primary votes he needs in 2024. So, all the Vice President will do is “hold his breath” and hope that Trump will stew and simmer in silence for ten days.
Trump could resign. And even though it might make legal sense (assuming Pence would offer him a pardon as quid pro quo for the resignation) no one expects “the Donald” to so acknowledge failure. So that’s off the table.
McConnell’s Move
Then there is impeachment, the process already underway in the House of Representatives. Tomorrow a resolution will be placed for debate on the Floor of the House. Many Republicans will likely demand investigations and hearings, and decry the Democratic “railroading” of their beloved President. But all of those members were impacted by the attack, the know what happened and why. Again, they will measure the politics before all else. Those Republicans too will face primaries in 2022, and they need the Trump voters.
But the majority Democrats and a few Republicans will pass a bill of impeachment, again. Donald Trump will be the only President impeached twice. He will finally gain his singular place in history.
And this gives Mitch McConnell his final political moves as Majority Leader of the Senate. McConnell controls the Senate until January 20th, Inauguration Day. On that day the now 50-50 body will lose Pence as the tie-breaking vote, and gain the new Vice President, Democrat Kamala Harris. McConnell refuses to bring his Senate, now in recess, back to Washington before January 19th. And by refusing, he allows his Republican members to avoid taking a stand either for or against the President. At least until Trump is gone.
Responsibility
And he also throws the whole “responsibility” for the results of the impeachment on the new Democratic Senate. It’s unknown if enough Republicans will join to reach the two-thirds threshold to convict Trump. If that occurs, it’s likely that the then more important simple majority to disqualify him from further office will be reached. But then it’s the Democrats fault, not Republicans. Don’t be surprised to hear that echo into the campaigns of 2022 and 2024, whether Donald Trump himself can run or not.
The President of the United States sent a mob to the Capitol to stop them from acting. That much is clear, and should be punished. And that same President remains in office, a threat to the Constitution for the next ten days. But what should be a simple decision based on fact will be decided by politics and by the continuing power of Donald Trump over the minds of many Republican voters.
