Month: December 2020

His Legitimacy, the President-Elect

My Democratic friends tell me to just hang on.  On January 20^th, Joe Biden will be inaugurated President of the United States.  Once he’s taken the oath of office, Donald Trump will be out, and everything will be better.  They’re certainly right in one way:  things will be better.  Joe Biden had already demonstrated that his governing goal is something we haven’t seen for the past four years:  competence. 

The Biden cabinet members (so far) aren’t the “radical socialists” that Republicans threatened.  In fact, if you are on the “left” of the Democratic Party, so far you haven’t gotten much.  Even Neera Tanden, Biden’s most controversial nominee for the Director of the Office of Management and Budget, is a “mainstream” progressive.  There was plenty of corporate and even foreign money behind her liberal “Center for American Progress”.  

But the one thing the Biden cabinet “exudes” is the ability to take office and go to work.  They are all experienced and ready to hit the ground running – and all that means they are eminently qualified and competent.

A Loser Baby

Donald Trump has done everything he can to delegitimize the Biden election.  He has gone to court over fifty times claiming that there was election fraud, and lost almost every case.  And if it was just Donald Trump by himself, we could write it off as “sour grapes” and being a “sore loser”.  That’s what would have happened in the past, when the “norms” pushed the losing Presidential candidate to concede the election.

The traditional thinking was:   once a candidate was declared the “loser”, they had to move as quickly as possible to end the contest.  If they didn’t then the nation would look at them as that “sore loser”, and end any future political career. Think about what happened to Al Gore.  By (legitimately) fighting for the 2000 election in Florida, he knowingly risked his future political life.  If he won he was President.  But when he didn’t, he never got the chance to run again. It wasn’t just a matter of “American tradition” to concede quickly, it was a matter of political survival.

But like many other areas of American political life, Donald Trump has thrown all of those “norms” out the window.  

True Believers

There are two key factors that make the actions of Donald Trump so different.  The first is that he convinced a significant minority of Americans that the election was stolen.  “Stop the Steal” is the new “Lock Her Up” chant of the “Trumper” crowd.  And they aren’t being stupid.  All of the information, all of their media reports, everything they see is telling them that “their” America is being stolen from them.  

We can certainly argue that they are getting all of their information from one “silo”.  But that argument isn’t going to fly with them.  Twenty years of high-pressure sales has them convinced that “their” sources are correct, and everyone else is watching “fake news”.  And while that’s a battle for some future tomorrow, it’s not a winnable one today.

But the second factor is there are so few other Republican leaders who are saying, “Biden won”.  In a Washington Post questionnaire last week, only twelve of fifty-two Republican Senators acknowledged the Biden victory – that’s twenty-three percent.  The rest evade or obfuscate or outright deny the will of the American voter.

Leading from the Rear

So when the Trump crowd chants, “Stop the Steal”, where are the leadership figures telling them the truth?   We know better than to expect that anyone in the direct Trump orbit will do so, but what about McConnell or Portman or Cruz or Scott (South Carolina or Florida)?  

The answer is they are nowhere to be found.  They all have excuses:  we need Trump voters in Georgia, or, Trump will “Tweet” and destroy my political career, or, we can wait until the Electoral Votes are counted, or it won’t matter, everything will be OK on January 20^th.

It won’t.

A large minority of Americans believes they have been robbed.  They are Americans with the same traditions as the rest of us.  I simply ask my Democratic friends: if they shoe was on the other foot, and we believed with certainty (not like 2016) that the Presidency was stolen and the vote of America ignored, what would we do?  To what lengths would we go to preserve our Democracy?  Would we march in the streets  or refuse to obey government orders?  Would revolution be in the air?

And for those who say, just wait until:  the Electoral votes are counted, or Georgia, or the inauguration; I ask, “who’s gonna tell ‘em”?  And why, after months of believing, should they listen?  Does anyone see Mitch McConnell standing in front of the riot, like the man before the tanks in Tiananmen Square, saying go home, it’s all OK?

Me neither.

Friends

In the legal world it’s called “venue shopping”.  If someone’s going to sue, they look for a Court that would be most likely to favor – them.  In a local dispute, it might be to manipulate the Court schedule so that a “favorable” judge decides the case.  Or, if the question could be settled in State or Federal Courts, the Court with the set of laws that most favors their case.

It’s kind of like Major League Baseball.  In the National League, pitchers take their turn at bat every inning.  If the manager wants a better hitter in the pitcher’s slot, then he’s got to change pitchers.  In the American League, there’s a designated hitter that bats for the pitcher, no change required.  If you’ve got pitchers who can hit, National League rules are better.  If not, the American League rules are better.  

Donald Trump and his supporters have gone to Court over fifty times since the November 3^rd election,. They tried in one way or another to change the results of the vote count.  Trump has lost over thirty times, with several cases still in legal “limbo”.  They won one case, in Pennsylvania. It required that Trump observers be allowed as close as six feet from the vote counters instead of ten.

Evidence

But what the President and some of his followers believe, is that if they can get their case to the United States Supreme Court, they can win.  It’s the venue where they actually have had the most success.  He won on the Muslim ban (eventually), on the border wall, and on several other issues where “lower” courts ruled against him.  And, as far as “judges” are concerned, Donald Trump believes as least three of those Justices “owe” him.  He appointed them, and in the “quid pro quo” world of Trump, that means they should rule for him.

The US Supreme Court let the President down yesterday, refusing to take an appeal on the Pennsylvania case to invalidate the voting results.  The Court had no comment, just a 9-0 refusal to hear the case.  But that case was on appeal from a lower court, with all of the evidentiary decisions already made.  

 Mr. Trump and his supporters, including several members of Congress, claim that if they could only get their “evidence” in front of the Supreme Court, then the Court would be “required” to overturn the election results that went for Biden.  They want the Supreme Court to order those states to ignore the “tainted” results, and appoint Trump Electors to the Electoral College.  And Trump has his “quid pro quo” with Justices Bennett, Kavanaugh, and Gorsuch.  It would only take two more.

Jurisdiction 101

A little reminder from high school American Government class here.  There are two ways that a Court hears cases.  The first is “original jurisdiction” That’s when a Court hears the case for the first time and determines both the facts (evidence) of the case, and how the law applies to that case.  After the original court, the facts are “settled” either by a jury or the judge.  If a case is appealed to a “higher” court, it is appealed based on whether the law was applied correctly or not.  Those higher courts have “appellate” jurisdiction, determining the law, not the facts.

The Supreme Court almost always has “appellate” jurisdiction.  But there are Constitutional exceptions where the Court could step in and take “original” jurisdiction. Article III, Section 2, Paragraph 2 of the US Constitution states:

“In all cases affecting ambassadors, other public ministers and consuls, and those in which a state shall be party, the Supreme Court shall have original jurisdiction.”

So if only a State would sue, and particularly if a State would sue another State. Then that case might have a clear path to “original jurisdiction” in front of the US Supreme Court.  They could present the “mountains” of evidence that all of the other Courts, both Federal and State, have rejected out of hand.  The President could “make his case” to the “friendliest” Court he knows.

The Lone Ranger

Enter Ken Paxton, the Attorney General for the State of Texas.  In a 128 page brief to the Supreme Court in the name of the state of Texas, General Paxton claims that the voting process in Pennsylvania, Georgia, Michigan and Wisconsin violates the due process rights of the citizens of Texas.  How did they do that?  Paxton claims those states counted votes in ways that, even though their own state courts approved, violate their own state laws.

That’s right – the State of Texas has determined that Pennsylvania, Georgia, Michigan and Wisconsin don’t know how to judge their own laws.  And since they don’t, they’ve allowed an election where the “wrong” candidate won, not the candidate that Texas chose.  But General Paxton knows how their laws should be judged, and he wants the Supreme Court to take the case directly on original jurisdiction, to present the evidence and prove it. 

And what remedy does the great state of Texas suggest?   From the Texas suit:

“The Court should grant leave to file the complaint and, ultimately, enjoin the use of unlawful election results without review and ratification by the Defendant States’ legislatures and remand to the Defendant States’ respective legislatures to appoint Presidential Electors in a manner consistent with the Electors Clause…”

Or, in plain English, throw out the results of the vote count, and require the state legislatures of Pennsylvania, Georgia, Michigan and Wisconsin to choose electors for the Electoral College.  It shouldn’t be a surprise that all four of those states have Republican controlled legislatures.

Experts Agree

This is an act of desperation.  Can’t we imagine the proud Texas response if those other states demanded that the Lone Star state to throw out their election results?  Almost every “Supreme Court Expert” agrees that this lawsuit is “dead on arrival”.  But it’s the era of Trump:  we’ve learned to our dismay that the word “impossible” doesn’t apply.  Don’t expect the Supreme Court to hear this case – but don’t be overly “shocked” if they decide to give Texas a “fair hearing”.  After all, there are twenty-two days left in 2020.

Update 12/11/2020

• USSC ORDER REGARDING THE TEXAS COMPLAINT
• 155, ORIG. 

             FRIDAY, DECEMBER 11, 2020 

               ORDER IN PENDING CASE 

TEXAS V. PENNSYLVANIA, ET AL.
The State of Texas’s motion for leave to file a bill of complaint is denied for lack of standing under Article III of the Constitution.  Texas has not demonstrated a judicially cognizable interest in the manner in which another State conducts its elections.  All other pending motions are dismissed as moot. 

Statement of Justice Alito, with whom Justice Thomas joins: In my view, we do not have discretion to deny the filing of a bill of complaint in a case that falls within our original jurisdiction. See Arizona v. California, 589 U. S. ___
(Feb. 24, 2020) (Thomas, J., dissenting). I would therefore grant the motion to file the bill of complaint but would not grant other relief, and I express no view on any other issue. 

Wrestling

I coached high school track and field for forty years.  And while track and Cross Country were my “primary sports”, for many of those years I coached wrestling as well.  I started the middle school wrestling program at Watkins Middle School, forty kids on a tiny, hard old mat in the middle of an elementary gym.  We had to take shifts wrestling, with kids doing pushups and sit-ups on the gym floor waiting for a chance to practice on a corner of the mat.

And I couldn’t teach throws, when a wrestler would pick up their opponent and (carefully) put them down on the mat.  The “postage stamp” we were wrestling on was too hard.  In today’s world of lawsuits we never would wrestled on that mat, but back in the mid 1980’s it’s what we had.  And we had a lot of fun.

In those years there wasn’t a “little kids” wrestling program.  The eighth graders who stepped on our “postage stamp” were almost all wrestling for the first time.  And for many of them, their only exposure to “wrestling” was “professional wrestling” they saw on television.  They came to their first wrestling practice looking for the ropes and the turnbuckles, what they saw on TV.

Big Time Wrestling

Professional wrestling has been around for a very long time.  When my Dad went to work in Dayton at WLW-D television station (now WDTN) in 1962, there was still the big “warehouse” area in the back of the station with a full sized ring.  The travelling “Big Time Wrestling” show would come through town and broadcast “live from the studio”.  It was the travelling carnival of television.  

There isn’t much in common between “professional” wrestling and the kind of wrestling we did in middle school.  Professional wrestling is a carefully scripted performance, with the wrestler/actors knowing their opponent’s next move and how they should react for the greatest spectator excitement.  It has to be.  Jumping from five or six feet up in the air and landing on someone, even on a springy mat, would break ribs, crush organs, and make for a very short career.  Hitting someone with a folding chair in the real world is just short of assault with a deadly weapon.  When you know things “went wrong” is when someone actually gets hurt.

On Steroids

Today the spectacle of professional wrestling is taken to the extreme.  It’s called World Wrestling Entertainment (WWE), and it’s not just the wrestling-performance. It’s an entire drama – from entering the arena, music blaring and special effects going off, to “non-ring” fights between managers, girlfriends, and even the guest celebrities.  In 2007, Pre-Presidential Donald Trump got to be “in the ring'” right after he body slammed WWE President Vince McMahon on the sidelines  (WWE). It’s the “good guys” versus the “bad guys”.  The good guys are victimized all season by the cheating bad guys – but usually come back to win at the end of the season. 

For the audience it is a time of suspended disbelief.  Sure, if someone did that “eye-gouge” or “flying pancake” in the real world, ambulances and policemen would arrive on the scene.  Everyone knows there’s a script, but no one knows what the preordained outcome is.  So it’s a show, a performance.  We can cheer on the “good guys” and lustily boo the “bad ones”. 

Trump

Donald Trump learned a lot from his friend, WWE President Vince McMahon.  He got so much from him, that he appointed Vince’s wife Linda as Administrator of the Small Business Administration.   Trump learned the art of spectacle and suspended disbelief.  He understood the clear “black and white, good versus bad” that attracts WWE’s audience.  And critical to understanding his actions today, Donald Trump learned that the “good guys” are always victims, waiting to “win” at the end of the season.

It may come with some surprise, but Saturday night I watched the entire Trump Rally in Valdosta, Georgia.  The President was there to support the Republican candidates for Senate in the January (not June) 5^th runoff.  But the rally really wasn’t about that.  For over one hundred minutes, so long that even Fox News cut him off for Judge Jeanine; Donald Trump performed exactly as he learned from WWE. 

Trump entered to his “theme song” – God Bless the USA!  He was the “good guy”, the victim cheated in the biggest “ring” of all.  He complained about the “refs”, the Republican leadership of Georgia who refused to overturn the election. The President decried his cheating opponent, the Democrats, with their “suitcases” full of ballots and signatures from the dead. And he didn’t forget to talk about the “other” bad guys outside the ring, the media.  There was the “traditional boo and flip off” the press section moment. And in the end, he promised that “next season” he will come back to avenge his loss.

Next Season

Democrats are constantly amazed that the President can stand in front of an adoring crowd (“WE LOVE YOU” was one on the chants) and tell outright lies for hours.   It’s easy to “assume” that the folks there are stupid, or at least deluded. They’re not.  They are suspending disbelief, just like they do with WWE.  It’s not only entertaining; it’s comforting and familiar. 

Want to know what comes next in “Trump World”?  Better tune in to some WWE Smackdown to get the flow.  Trump sees himself coming back in a cloud of smoke, crowds singing “proud to be an American”, and throwing Joe Biden over the ropes and slamming him out of the ring.  Watch out for the folding chairs, Kamala!!  But none of that is funny – because it so very real.

Don Dahlman

Sunday, December 7^th, 1941: it’s seventy-nine years ago tomorrow that the Japanese launched their successful surprise attack on Pearl Harbor.  It began US involvement in World War II, and it was the pivotal event in the “Greatest Generation’s” life.  

My Dad was twenty-three, a Jewish boy from Cincinnati bound to succeed as the nation came out of the Depression. He was on all of the “committees” and graduated from Walnut Hills High School in 1936. He then became a co-op student at the University of Cincinnati, alternating learning how to manage the Bookstore, his studies, and leadership on several university committees for five years. But the clouds of war were gathering well before Pearl Harbor, and Don Dahlman registered for the draft on October 16^th, 1940 in his junior year. He wasn’t drafted though, and remained at UC to earn an accounting degree in the spring of 1941.

Walnut Hills Yearbook – Class of 1936

Dad enlisted in the US Army on November 17^th, 1941.  Maybe, now graduated, he knew that his “draft date” was coming.   Anyway, as least as he told it, the “new boot” managed a pass to Atlanta for the weekend of December 6^th.  The story he told was that he was recovering from Saturday night’s partying when he heard about the attack.  It was one in the afternoon in Atlanta, and Dad quickly headed back to his basic training camp.

Don Dahlman’s Draft Card

The Great Leveler

It was the same experience for all enlisted or drafted: boot camp, the military process and the war.  For an entire generation of American men born between 1905 and 1925, there would always have their “war” experiences in common, whether they actually saw combat or not.  It “leveled” them in many ways.  Jewish boys from Cincinnati and Southern boys from rural Georgia were pressed into common service.  The military was still segregated, so it did not change America’s racial divisions.  But it did create a shared “national” experience.

It was like the radio.  Prior to the spread of radio entertainment throughout the nation in the twenties and thirties, American “English” was strictly divided by accent.  A southerner might not even be able to understand a Minnesotan, much less a man from the Bronx.  But as most Americans listened to national radio broadcasts, a “common” accent emerged. 

Regional accents didn’t disappear, but everyone knew how to sound like a radio “newsman” or entertainer.  A national accent appeared: everyone sounded like they were from Cincinnati. (That might also be because WLW Radio in Cincinnati broadcast at 700 on the AM dial with 500,000 watts.  You could hear it throughout most of the nation, from Iowa to Mississippi to South Carolina to Maine.  And if you lived near the broadcast tower in Mason, Ohio, they said you could hear it on your bedsprings and lose fillings).

The Yank Arrives

After basic training, Dad was moved into Army Intelligence.  He told us about concern that the Nazis were trying to encourage the draftees to desert – he called it the Ohio Plan, “Over the Hill in October”.  But as the Army became more aware of Nazi ideology, Dad was transferred from Intelligence to Finance.  Intelligence operatives might to be behind enemy lines, and the Army determined that was a bad place for a Jewish man.  

Dad was an accountant by degree, so they switched him into the Finance office.  It would be almost seven months before he was shipped out, bound for the “British Isles” and arriving on July 12^th, 1942.  His job was making sure the troops got paid.   

Don moved up through the ranks, ultimately becoming a “Warrant Officer”.  And he was always “social”.  On a weekend pass to London, he arranged for one of his former colleagues in Army Intelligence to set up a blind date.  The prospective candidate was wary of Americans, “They had terrible reputations”.   So they met at a restaurant, The Queens Brasserie, where she could eye those coming through the door and decide whether to “make contact” or not.

Babs and Don

She did, and Don Dahlman met Phyllis Mary Teresa O’Connor, known to her friends as Babs.  They hit it off from the very first dinner, and Dad soon found a way to get stationed in London.  Troops need to be paid everywhere anyway.  Babs and Don became a constant pair, walking the streets of blacked out London, and hiking the English countryside.  And while Babs was unable to explain her frequent absences (out of town on her Government job, she said), Dad knew many of the Americans she knew.  They were intelligence operatives, some working behind enemy lines in occupied Europe.

But that’s another story.  Don sent a letter to his family:  this “good Jewish boy” from Cincinnati was going to marry a Roman Catholic girl from London.  They weren’t happy on the home front, but love is love.  The wedding was scheduled for June 6, 1944.   But the war had other plans.

So Don and Babs moved their wedding plans up, having a small civil ceremony in March.  Don’s best man was his first cousin, Bud Levine, representing the whole of Cincinnati in the ceremony.  And after a brief honeymoon, Babs “disappeared” again, dropped in France to help prepare for the invasion.  And Don was “sequestered” with the rest of the invasion force in the South of England.

France

The D-Day invasion landed on June 6^th.  Dad would say, he “went in” with the fifth wave of WAC’s (the Women’s Army Corp) but it wasn’t just “paying the troops” that was important.  An invading Army needs “invasion currency”, and an invaded nation needs to switch from the currency controlled by the Nazis, to one controlled by the Allies.  It’s a big job in the “background” of the battle, but it also has to be won.

So as Babs helped coordinate with the French Underground to cripple Nazi communications and transportation, Don was wading through mounds of currency in the Paris banks, trying to audit the differing monies.  

If not for World War II, they would never have met.  Their “fairy-tale” marriage, that lasted for sixty-nine years wouldn’t have happened.  And, of course, this author and his sisters wouldn’t be here.

Theirs is a story of happiness and success born in a world of tragedy.  While not all of their compatriots of the “Greatest Generation” had that joyful life, they can all say the same thing.  They can tell you exactly where they were in December 7^th, 1941. It was the day that inalterably changed their lives, seventy-nine years ago.

Babs and Don – 2008

“There go the people. I must follow them, for I am their leader. ” – Alexandre Auguste Ledru-Rollin – the French Revolution of 1848

Whispers

You hear the whispers:  maybe the Republican leaders are finally “backing away” from Donald Trump.  And there is some evidence of that. Attorney General Bill Barr announced the truth: the Department of Justice found no evidence of mass voter fraud.   And a very few Republican Senators acknowledge the obvious, that Joe Biden will be inaugurated President in January.  It’s sad that telling the truth is seen as an act of “political courage”. 

Some Democrats and “never-Trumpers” have a wishful “vision”.  They hope that with the grudging departure of Donald Trump, Republican leaders will “regain” their independence, and return to the Party of John McCain, the “Lincoln Project” heroes and the “Rockefeller Republicans” of old.  But there are two facts that stand in the way of this “rebirth” of the Republicanism of my father.

Power

The first:  Donald J Trump received over 74 million votes in the 2020 election, the second most ever.  Sure Joe Biden won with 81 million, but there is incredible power in that 74 million too.  It’s like the Olympic 100 meter dash, where the second place sprinter breaks the world record.  He neither gets to enjoy the gold medal, or the record.  But he can’t wait for the rematch.

Donald Trump must be highly motivated by the loss.  He got more votes than Barack Obama, more votes than Ronald Reagan (yes – I know that the population was smaller then – does Trump?).  To be so close and fail would motivate almost anyone to want to try again.

And those are 74 million votes that EVERY Republican needs to win their own election.  Sure it’s easy for Bill Barr to “stand up” to Trump, if you call telling the truth “standing up”.  Barr was retired before he took the Attorney General job, and he’ll be retired when he leaves it.  And Mitt Romney doesn’t get “brownie points” for “standing up” either.  He’s from Utah, and while it’s a “Red” state, Trump has never been particularly popular with the Mormon Church.  Sixty-two percent of the state is Mormon, so Romney has a “cushion”.  He can vote for Trump’s removal in the impeachment trial, but also must vote for Amy Coney Barrett for Supreme Court Justice.

Who Is Fooled?

And while Democrats and “Never-Trump” Republicans might wish it weren’t so, Donald Trump still wields incredible power over those 74 million.  It’s not just the “Tweets” or the “crazy” Trumpers either.  A substantial number of those who voted for Donald Trump agree with what he did.  They liked the tax cut for the one percent and they liked the border wall. And, “shhhhh”– don’t tell anybody – but they even secretly liked the child separation policy. 

Many, including myself, have quoted Lincoln in regard to Trump supporters:  

“You can fool some of the people all of the time, and all of the people some of the time, but you can not fool all of the people all of the time.”

But the “fooling” is on us.  Trump supporters aren’t fooled – they agree with Trump.

Money Talks

Need more evidence?  Here’s the second fact:  Donald Trump has raised more than $200 million SINCE the election.  Sure he’s done it under the “umbrella” of challenging election results, but other than re-counting votes in Madison and Milwaukee he really hasn’t spent much on that.  What Trump is doing is creating a whole new fund for “what’s next”.

And “what’s next” for Trump?  Today, and for the next few months, it might well be consideration of a Presidential run in 2024.  But even if he decides that’s too much effort, the $200 million goes a long way towards funding political action.  And political action for Trump means holding other politicians to the fire of what Trump wants. It’s a quid pro quo:  Trump controls the voters, and the others need the votes.  

So don’t expect the Congressional fealty to Trump to change.  Look at some of the Republicans up for re-election in the Senate in 2022: Murkowski (AK), Rubio (FL), Young (IN), Kennedy (LA), Blunt (MO), Burr (NC), Scott (SC), and Johnson (WI). They cannot stray far from Trump.  And in the House, the Democratic margin is narrowed.  The 2020 election showed Republicans doing well everywhere but for President.  And if the House becomes Republican in 2022, it will be Trump influence that does it, and McCarthy and Jim Jordan empowered to put Trump’s policies back in effect.

I’m sad to say that Monday, January 20^th, 2021 will not mean the end of Donald Trump.  And it won’t mean the end of his influence over the Republican Party either.  As Ledru-Rollin said, “There go the people…” and it’s the Republican leadership that must follow them.  And the “people” the Republican leaders must follow are the people of Donald Trump.  

Polarized

We are alive in a divided nation.  We are so divided, we can’t even agree if the almost 160 million votes in the Presidential election were cast accurately.  Illogically, we accept the results from those same ballots for other offices. We are so splintered, the deaths of more than 270,000 Americans in the past nine months hasn’t created a unified front.  And we are so polarized, when offered a “cure” for the pandemic, forty percent of us won’t take it (Gallup).

The experts tell us that by March 1, 2021, another 200,000 Americans will die from COVID (IHME).  That’s at our current rate of “mitigation”. We need to take care of each other by doing the “stupid, simple” things:  wear masks, social distance, don’t travel.   Because of our divisions we simply aren’t doing them, and more people are dying.

If an American President committed to an unjustified war that would cost 200,000 lives in the next four months, we would all rise in righteous indignation.  More Americans will die in this year of COVID than died in all of World War II.  But we are so splintered, we won’t stop it.

Before the War

America was a divided nation before World War II.  Franklin Roosevelt brought the nation together to recover from the Great Depression, but he was unable to unify us to battle Nazi Fascism.  The horror of the trenches of World War I, and the crushing disappointment in the failure of the peace afterwards, convinced Americans to “isolate” behind our ocean “walls”.

Even America’s heroes warned against war.  Marine General Smedley Butler, two-time Medal of Honor winner, denounced intervention.  Charles Lindbergh, the hero of “The Spirit of St. Louis” was against involvement in European battles.  And the US ambassador to Great Britain itself, Joseph Kennedy, was recalled because he didn’t think America should fight.

The radio was the great public medium of the 1930’s. And Father Coughlin spoke to the nation night after night against entering the war.  He broadcast on WJR from Detroit, a “clear channel” station that at the time was so powerful that most of the nation could listen to it directly.  The CBS radio network further spread his voice across the rest of the country. He did not create the divisions, but he knew how to inflame them. He was more popular and more powerful than a Rush Limbaugh or Sean Hannity of today. His power was like a Donald Trump.  Many in the nation listened and believed him.

It wasn’t until December 7^th, 1941 that the tide turned.  The Japanese direct attack on Americans at Pearl Harbor proved to unite Americans in a single effort.   It took the loss of American lives, 2,403 on that December day, for America’s “righteous might” to respond in an all-out effort to save freedom in the world. 

What Now?

Our ocean “walls” did not protect us against COVID either.  In fact we know that the virus was already in the United States before it was “identified” in Wuhan, China in January.  Research now shows that Americans in America were already infected in December of 2019 (NPR). COVID was in the streets of New York before we even knew about the “wet markets” of Wuhan.  It was here before we knew it, and before any efforts to stop it.

So it really no longer matters whether we stopped flights from China, or anywhere else.  What does matter is what America will do now.

Joe Biden has already evoked wartime efforts when talking about the pandemic.  But can any President unite a nation that doesn’t even believe in the same news, the same set of facts, or even the same creed?  In essence, is America ever going to be “unite-able” again?  Have we reached a point where we are in fact two nations, irrevocably divided by the message of our modern-day Father Coughlin, Donald Trump?

After Pearl Harbor Americans lined up to volunteer for the military.  My parents’ generation was willing to give their lives for the cause. What will it take to get us lined up for a simple shot?  Will the cause of saving the lives hundreds of thousands of those at the greatest risk be enough?  Or will the “Father Coughlin” of our time continue to exploit the divisions among us.

Hofbrauhaus

It was in the “before times”, the time before we all could identify a Corona Virus by sight.  Jenn and I met some friends in Cincinnati for a Reds game (they lost, unfortunately).  But, before the game, we wandered across the Ohio River into Kentucky, and had dinner at the Newport “Hofbrauhaus”.   It’s a Munich “beer festival” type place, with long wooden tables; families and strangers all sitting together with large pints of German beer.  

Dinner was schnitzel and spatzle, served by Bavarian dressed waitresses. An “om-pah” band played in the background, and as the beer mugs were drained and replaced, the diners joined in old German drinking songs. By the end of the dinner, many were standing on benches, swaying to the songs, swinging their beer steins and belting out the lyrics. It’s a fun night.

Today it would be called a different name:  a super-spreader event. 

COVID 

It’s been eight months and fifteen days since we last sat down inside a restaurant.  We’ve dined on the patio a few times, but now that winter has set in, that’s out of the question.  Life is different, with political ideology somehow tied to public health.  Who you supported for President last month is reflected by whether you’re wearing a mask or not.  Today’s “butcher’s bill”:  277,017 have died in the United States from COVID, and over fourteen million have been diagnosed with the disease (Covid).  That includes relatives and close friends.  There is no “distance” from COVID:  it’s at the front door.

There is a “light at the end of the tunnel” for COVID. This morning, the United Kingdom approved the use of the Pfizer vaccine. The United States is a couple of weeks behind, but likely both Pfizer and Moderna vaccines will be in use here before Christmas. When the number of vaccinations reaches seventy to eighty percent of the population, life might get back to something that resembles the “before times”.

But in the meantime, we’ve got to “control” an uncontrollably infective virus.  Face masks help, but aren’t a guaranteed protection.  “Social distancing”, maintaining space from those outside your “personal bubble” helps. And being outside with air circulation makes a difference. But the biggest issue is behavior.  Will people avoid “spreader” events?

First Amendment

So what are “spreader” events?  They are large gatherings of folks, crowded together, and often inside.  Add to that physical contact, yelling or singing, and you have all the “fixin’s” for spreading COVID 19.  It definitely would include an evening at the Hofbrauhaus.  Packing the stands for the high school basketball game would fit the bill, and, unfortunately, the high school indoor track meet too.  And the same could be said for the 7:00 pm service at the local church, mosque, or synagogue.

But many, including a majority of the Supreme Court, claim that the First Amendment to the Constitution guarantees “freedom of religion”.  What it actually says is this:  “Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof” (First Amendment, US Constitution).

And there we are:  “no Law” prohibiting the “free exercise” thereof (emphasis added).  So if the Third Gospel Church of the River wants to have a packed service with singing and hugging, there can be “no Law” that prohibits it – right?

That same First Amendment also states that the “Congress shall make no law, “…abridging the freedom of speech”.  But we all know the caveat to that “freedom”:  One can’t be “falsely shouting fire in a theater and causing a panic,” (Justice Holmes, Schenk v United States).   So there are limits to free speech.  And we already accept limits to the “free exercise” of religion as well.  Fire inspectors go to churches, and set crowd limits on the building.  Building inspectors look at the structural integrity of the synagogues, and could legally condemn a building that was in danger of collapsing.

Buying Time

So when the local government or the Governor places limits on religious services in the name of COVID, it’s not some incredibly broad expansion of power. Just as we expect that the government will protect us from fires, it’s reasonable action to protect the population from “super-spreader” events.  To be fair, that government better do the same with the local sports, and the dance clubs.  And they are.

And while I haven’t been there, I bet they aren’t standing on the benches and singing at the Hofbrauhaus either.  But six months from now, if we can “de-politicize” the vaccine, maybe we can return to “raise a glass” again.  There’s a Billy Joel concert re-scheduled at the Great American Ballpark in September, and we have tickets.

Trump’s History

As a Democrat, the current actions of Donald Trump seem outrageous. The President of the United States is openly accusing the American electoral system. He says it’s rigged and rotted to the core.  At the minimum that undermining of American democracy is irresponsible.  At the worst, is an open challenge, an attempt to overthrow the will of the people:  in short, an attempted coup.

But from Trump’s standpoint, it is simply an extension of the same theory that has carried him through his political career.  Much of what Donald Trump has done in the past five years was based on the actions of past Republican Presidents.  From the “Law and Order” battle cry of Richard Nixon, to the “Make America Great Again” phrase of Ronald Reagan, the Trump campaign has tried to copy both the successes and failures.  

Certainly Roger Stone was a key influence towards “Nixonian” actions, especially in the 2016 campaign.  Stone, a young “dirty trickster” in the 1972 Nixon campaign, brought that attitude with him as a chief advisor to Trump.  Stone’s “win at all cost” attitude spread itself throughout the senior Trump staff.  One of his close associates, Paul Manafort, became the Campaign Chairman.  It’s why Russian contacts really didn’t seem like a big deal.

Now five years later, it shouldn’t be a surprise that the Trump camp is looking to another Republican predecessor on how to win a contested election.  The Trump team is trying to take George W. Bush’s strategy in the Florida recount of 2000, and apply it “writ large” to all of the critical swing states.

Florida, Florida, Florida

The 2000 Florida count was extremely close, with Bush ultimately declared the winner by 526 votes.  The Presidency hinged on Florida’s electoral vote. The slim difference between Bush and Gore was so small, every single ballot actually mattered.  There were all sorts of real issues:  ballots in Palm Beach where intended Gore votes went to third party candidate Ralph Nader, punch card ballots where the “chads” weren’t completely punched out, and incompetent election officials.

While Florida Democrats controlled the counties of Palm Beach and Miami-Dade, the ultimate Florida elections authority was the state.  And the Florida statewide offices were all controlled by Republicans, led by the Republican Governor Jeb Bush.  As the Presidential candidate’s brother, Jeb “recused” himself from election recount activities.  But the rest of his state government was “all in” to make George W Bush the President.

And as a practical matter, they did.  The Florida Secretary of State waited until a moment when the recount favored Bush, then stopped the count.  The issue was thrown into the Courts, where the United States Supreme Court ultimately ruled for “Florida” and stopped the count.  The Court was split, five Republican appointees to four Democrats.  It was exactly where the Republican state government wanted it to stop.

As a practical matter – either candidate could have won Florida, and therefore the Presidency.  It depended on what ballot – standard was applied to counting the ballots.  Gore wins about as often as Bush (details in this CNN article).

Fealty to the King

So what does Trump want?  He wants what he thinks Bush got in Florida, the complete dedication of Republican state party members to his victory.  It’s why Donald Trump is now attacking Governor Kemp in Georgia, and Republican election officials in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.  Regardless of what the law states, Trump sees their actions as disloyal.  But even more insidiously, he sees them as disrespecting his role as President.

In the background of the last six years of Trumpism, is the “distinction” between Trump and the Republican Party.  Ever since the April 2016 rumors of a Republican revolt at the Cleveland Convention, Trump has been wary of the “mainstream” party.  He’s done everything he can to drag them “into line”.  From McCain to Flake to Sanford to Tillerson, Donald Trump has smacked down any “independent” action or thought in “his” party.

So when Georgia Secretary of State Raffensperger “refused” to “change the vote”, or Michigan State Board of Canvasser member Aaron Van Langevelde voted to approve their results, or Arizona Governor Ducey silences a Presidential call; Trump sees betrayal.  Where is his Jeb Bush, or Katherine Harris, or “Brooks Brothers” riot? 

It’s the reason that other Republican leaders like Senators Marco Rubio or Lindsay Graham or Party Chairman Ronna McDaniel have done everything they can to “uphold” Donald Trump.  Graham may even have crossed the line into criminal election interference with his calls to Georgia, Arizona and Nevada.  But they did it to “prove” their “fealty” to Trump, like a medieval noble to the King:  kneel and kiss the ring.

What’s Lost

In the short run, the Trump strategy won’t work.  Joe Biden will be sworn in on January 20^th, and Donald Trump will head back to Mara Lago. And the doubt that Trump is sowing in the election process may directly impact the Georgia Senate runoffs.  Republicans in Georgia listening to “their” President may well choose not to participate in the “rigged” system he “exposed”.  So the Democrats might win, and gain control of the US Senate as well.

 But in the longer term, there may be devastating effects.  Trump continues his ironfisted control of his ninety percent of the Republican electorate.  A Trump “tweet” can still make or break a Republican candidate – and that’s not likely to change for the next few years.  The Trump strategy will be to insinuate his loyalists into every level of the Party, from Governors to members of the Board of Canvassers.  Whether Trump himself runs in 2024 won’t be as important as being a “Trumpist” with “the Donald’s” support.  And this time, the election system might not hold up against the cries of “foul play”.  Votes may well be denied – and Democracy will begin to die.