2020
There is one thing that everyone, and I mean EVERYONE, is agreed upon. This year 2020 has been the most difficult one in our memories. From New Year’s and the impeachment trial, to the pandemic, forest fires, and the longest Presidential election in history: 2020 lasted at least a decade.
And it’s not over. The final act of 2020 won’t be the “Ball Drop” in New York’s Times Square (with “hundreds” socially distanced throughout the city?). We can count down to zero and welcome in 2021, but 2020 will not have concluded. It will take another five days (and probably a couple more) to finish that business so we can move onto the New Year.
On January 5th Georgia will complete the 2020 election season with a “runoff” election for two seats in the US Senate. Georgia is one of two states that require a 50% majority to “win”, so that most general elections (that have more than two candidates) require a “runoff” of the two finalists. And since Georgia has two open Senate seats and neither was determined in November, January 5th will determine both Senators.
117th Senate
The makeup of the 2021 United States Senate currently has fifty Republicans, forty-six Democrats and two Independents who organize with the Democrats (King of Maine and Sanders of Vermont). So the math is simple. If Republicans win one or both seats in Georgia, they will have a very slim one or two vote majority. If Democrats win both seats in Georgia, the Senate will be a fifty-fifty tie. Since the Vice President of the United States is the “President of the Senate” and given a vote only to break ties, then a fifty-fifty Senate makes Vice President Kamala Harris the tiebreaker. As she is a Democrat, if would give the Democratic Party “control” of the US Senate.
Organizational control is important. Whichever Party controls the Senate, even by a tiebreaking vote, gets a majority on every committee in the Senate. That Party gets the chairmanship of each committee. And perhaps most important, the controlling Party can determine when legislation comes “to the floor” for debate and vote.
So don’t think that Georgia doesn’t matter. A Senate organized by Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer would be much easier for President Joe Biden. A Senate run by Republican Leader Mitch McConnell will make it more difficult for Biden to implement his plans. And if McConnell determines that the strategy he followed with President Obama – absolute obstruction – is the future for Biden, we can look forward to two years of gridlock.
Of the Center
But no matter how Georgia goes, the Leader of the new Senate is going to have to contend with a new “center” coalition. With the departure of Donald Trump, Republican “moderates” are finding new voice. Look at the COVID relief compromise bill that just passed both Houses.
This bill was not a proposal by either the Republican leadership, nor was it the bill passed by the Democrat controlled House of Representatives in October. It was generated completely by a “gang of eleven” group of “center” Senators from both Parties. They are: Democratic Senators Joe Manchin of West Virginia, Mark Warner of Virginia, Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire, Maggie Hassan of New Hampshire and Dick Durbin of Illinois; Republican Senators Susan Collins of Maine, Bill Cassidy of Louisiana, Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, Mitt Romney of Utah and Rob Portman of Ohio; and Independent Senator Angus King of Maine.
Using the term “moderate” is a relative term in today’s US Senate. In other years, Romney, Murkowski, Cassidy and Portman would have been considered “conservatives”. And from the Progressive (read liberal) wing of the Democratic Party, Joe Manchin doesn’t seem particularly moderate, more of a “Blue Dog” conservative Democrat of old. But in today’s ultra-polarized world, this “gang” represents the “middle”, and therefore are “moderates”.
Empowered Republicans
The Trumpian “Power of Tweet” will no longer have the cudgel strength that he wielded as President. And Trump, perhaps fighting off lawsuits and criminal charges, may not care anyway. So the incredible dampening effect Trump had on those “moderate” Republicans may be lifted. Romney already has shown his independence, voting for an Article of Impeachment. Murkowski has demonstrated her political courage as well, standing against the Kavanaugh Supreme Court appointment.
Should one or both Republicans win in Georgia, those Republican “moderates” are still going to be the balance of power in the Senate. This might force Mitch McConnell to take more action than he did in the “obstruct Obama” years from 2012 to 2016. Romney has already made it clear that he would give “great latitude” to Biden’s cabinet appointments, and don’t be surprised to see Collins, Murkowski, and even Portman follow suit.
Middle of the Middle
But even if Ossoff and Warnock win in Georgia, and the Senate is Democratic controlled, don’t think of Vice President Harris as the pivotal vote. The tiebreaker won’t be Harris; it will be West Virginia’s Senator Joe Manchin, the most “conservative” Democrat in the Senate.
Joe Manchin is the “last Democrat standing” in West Virginia, perhaps the “reddest” state in the nation. For “Progressive” Democrats looking to put forward their agenda, Manchin will be the ultimate stumbling block. Keeping Manchin in the Democratic fold is critical to maintain Senate control, but he represents a coal mining state that Donald Trump won by 68.6%. And for those Republican voters who bought the “Radical Socialist Democrat Agenda” that a Democratic Senate might pursue, don’t worry about Joe Manchin waving a Red Flag and standing with AOC!
So even with the Georgia duo and Chuck Schumer as Majority Leader, the “middle” will control the US Senate. And the man in the “middle of the middle” is Senator Joe Manchin.
