Follow the Leader

“There go the people. I must follow them, for I am their leader. ” – Alexandre Auguste Ledru-Rollin – the French Revolution of 1848

Whispers

You hear the whispers:  maybe the Republican leaders are finally “backing away” from Donald Trump.  And there is some evidence of that. Attorney General Bill Barr announced the truth: the Department of Justice found no evidence of mass voter fraud.   And a very few Republican Senators acknowledge the obvious, that Joe Biden will be inaugurated President in January.  It’s sad that telling the truth is seen as an act of “political courage”. 

Some Democrats and “never-Trumpers” have a wishful “vision”.  They hope that with the grudging departure of Donald Trump, Republican leaders will “regain” their independence, and return to the Party of John McCain, the “Lincoln Project” heroes and the “Rockefeller Republicans” of old.  But there are two facts that stand in the way of this “rebirth” of the Republicanism of my father.

Power

The first:  Donald J Trump received over 74 million votes in the 2020 election, the second most ever.  Sure Joe Biden won with 81 million, but there is incredible power in that 74 million too.  It’s like the Olympic 100 meter dash, where the second place sprinter breaks the world record.  He neither gets to enjoy the gold medal, or the record.  But he can’t wait for the rematch.

Donald Trump must be highly motivated by the loss.  He got more votes than Barack Obama, more votes than Ronald Reagan (yes – I know that the population was smaller then – does Trump?).  To be so close and fail would motivate almost anyone to want to try again.

And those are 74 million votes that EVERY Republican needs to win their own election.  Sure it’s easy for Bill Barr to “stand up” to Trump, if you call telling the truth “standing up”.  Barr was retired before he took the Attorney General job, and he’ll be retired when he leaves it.  And Mitt Romney doesn’t get “brownie points” for “standing up” either.  He’s from Utah, and while it’s a “Red” state, Trump has never been particularly popular with the Mormon Church.  Sixty-two percent of the state is Mormon, so Romney has a “cushion”.  He can vote for Trump’s removal in the impeachment trial, but also must vote for Amy Coney Barrett for Supreme Court Justice.

Who Is Fooled?

And while Democrats and “Never-Trump” Republicans might wish it weren’t so, Donald Trump still wields incredible power over those 74 million.  It’s not just the “Tweets” or the “crazy” Trumpers either.  A substantial number of those who voted for Donald Trump agree with what he did.  They liked the tax cut for the one percent and they liked the border wall. And, “shhhhh”– don’t tell anybody – but they even secretly liked the child separation policy. 

Many, including myself, have quoted Lincoln in regard to Trump supporters:  

“You can fool some of the people all of the time, and all of the people some of the time, but you can not fool all of the people all of the time.”

But the “fooling” is on us.  Trump supporters aren’t fooled – they agree with Trump.

Money Talks

Need more evidence?  Here’s the second fact:  Donald Trump has raised more than $200 million SINCE the election.  Sure he’s done it under the “umbrella” of challenging election results, but other than re-counting votes in Madison and Milwaukee he really hasn’t spent much on that.  What Trump is doing is creating a whole new fund for “what’s next”.

And “what’s next” for Trump?  Today, and for the next few months, it might well be consideration of a Presidential run in 2024.  But even if he decides that’s too much effort, the $200 million goes a long way towards funding political action.  And political action for Trump means holding other politicians to the fire of what Trump wants. It’s a quid pro quo:  Trump controls the voters, and the others need the votes.  

So don’t expect the Congressional fealty to Trump to change.  Look at some of the Republicans up for re-election in the Senate in 2022: Murkowski (AK), Rubio (FL), Young (IN), Kennedy (LA), Blunt (MO), Burr (NC), Scott (SC), and Johnson (WI). They cannot stray far from Trump.  And in the House, the Democratic margin is narrowed.  The 2020 election showed Republicans doing well everywhere but for President.  And if the House becomes Republican in 2022, it will be Trump influence that does it, and McCarthy and Jim Jordan empowered to put Trump’s policies back in effect.

I’m sad to say that Monday, January 20^th, 2021 will not mean the end of Donald Trump.  And it won’t mean the end of his influence over the Republican Party either.  As Ledru-Rollin said, “There go the people…” and it’s the Republican leadership that must follow them.  And the “people” the Republican leaders must follow are the people of Donald Trump.