Thanksgiving
It’s Thanksgiving, perhaps the most American of holidays. It is a time of family and food – a favorite of mine. How can you go wrong – no presents to buy, just eat, and eat, and eat some more. The turkey and the beef tenderloin are poised for the fixing!!
But this is COVID Thanksgiving – when gathering is a danger to us all. So what do we have to be thankful for?
COVID is awful. Look back at historic plagues; it could have lasted for years. Yet today we look forward to vaccines that are literally “ready to go”. The “light at the end of the tunnel” may only be months away, not the years we thought might be ahead when COVID began. Stay healthy, stay safe, and look forward to next Thanksgiving and maybe even next Fourth of July when we can all gather together again. Raise a glass!!
Presidential Pardon
As we enter the final-final phase of the Trump Administration, it is only fitting that he will leave office under scandal, the same one he entered with. Today, the 45th President of the United States pardoned his convicted former National Security Advisor. Retired US Army Major General Michael Flynn was one of Donald Trump’s earliest supporters. His “stars” gave an imprimatur of respectability to the Trump campaign when there were few others besides former Senator Jeff Sessions standing beside him.
But he was also a harbinger of events to come. After the shock of the 2016 Trump victory, almost everyone from Chris Christie to Barack Obama told Trump not to hire Flynn as National Security Advisor. But Donald Trump, known best for taking his own counsel over others, proceeded to do so anyway.
Flynn lasted two weeks. Publicly what we knew then was that he lied to the Vice President and the American people about “ex parte” conversations he had with Russian officials almost a month before the Trump inauguration. Flynn suggested that the Russians should ignore then-President Obama’s sanctions for Russia’s interference in the 2016 elections. He said that the new Trump Administration would “fix” them. We knew all of this, because the NSA listens in on Russian diplomatic phone conversations. And Flynn, the former Director of Defense Intelligence should have known that too.
Flynn’s resignation was one of the first “scandals” of the Trump Administration. It was so dramatic that it was the subject of one of the early essays I wrote for Trump World, – What Happened to Flynn?
Flynn’s Deal
What we now know is that Flynn didn’t just lie to the Vice President, placing himself in a “compromised” position with the Russians. He also lied to two FBI agents who had a transcript of the phone conversation in hand, and who gave him multiple chances to “get straight” with the story. Flynn didn’t. The Mueller team indicted him for lying to Federal agents.
Flynn made a cooperation-deal with Mueller. He pled guilty to lying to Federal investigators. He then reneged on the deal, and was up for sentencing when the Attorney General, Bill Barr, directly intervened in the process and tried to withdraw the Government’s charges. Federal Judge Emmet Sullivan took the highly unusual step of refusing the Government’s move. The case was still being determined. Of course, that’s now all done. A Presidential Pardon absolves the recipient from all charges and penalties.
The Constitution of the United States gives the President the sovereign right to issues pardons. The only limitations are: it’s only for federal crimes, and there is no “pardon” for impeachment conviction. It is one of the few times that the Founding Fathers looked to the sovereign power of monarchy for Presidential powers.
Who to Pardon?
President Trump has a limited amount of time to get things done – until 11:59 am on January 20th. He already is trying to restrict the incoming Biden Administration on several fronts. Trump withdrew the United States from the Open Skies Treaty, and is in the process of destroying the aircraft that enforced it. His Treasury Secretary is moving more than $400 million in COVID relief funds into accounts that could require Congressional approval to spend.
And the President continues to try to “up-stage” the Biden Presidency by “stepping” on each Biden announcement. Today, Biden gave a pre-Thanksgiving speech, trying to steel the nation for impending COVID losses and rally us together. Trump waited until the speech was done, then released the “tweet” pardoning Flynn. Regardless that the election is over and Biden is the winner, Trump continues to try to focus attention back to Trump.
Don’t expect that this will be the last Presidential Pardon. Paul Manafort is home, but still convicted of crimes. He has been a “good soldier” and maintained his silence about the Trump 2016 campaign. In Trump’s gangster-style life, he deserves a Pardon. Bet on it.
And somewhere in the next few weeks, Donald Trump will raise the “specter of retribution”. He will claim that the “radical Democrats” are going to attack his family. Don’t be too shocked when he issues pardons “for any act they may have happened” to Jared and Ivanka, and Don Junior, Eric and their significant others. (Sorry Tiffany).
But, of course, he’ll then explain that the main target is Donald Trump himself.
The President
There are two ways that the sitting President can “indemnify” himself from future Federal prosecution. The first would be to follow the Nixon example. Nixon resigned from office, and his replacement, Gerald Ford, soon issued a blanket pardon for any offense he might have committed. I am not implying a “deal” was cut in 1974 – I don’t doubt Nixon wanted one, but Jerry Ford wasn’t that kind of politician. Ford legitimately felt that it was in the nation’s best interest to end the Nixon era.
Donald Trump could resign from office – maybe right after New Year’s. Vice President Mike Pence would then take over for the brief interregnum before the Biden inauguration. Pence could then pardon Trump. And while there can’t be a direct “quid pro quo”, perhaps Trump might guarantee backing for a Pence Presidential run in 2024. And in the converse, if Pence didn’t pardon him, then Trump could use the deadly “tweet” to destroy Pence’s chances.
Or President Joe Biden could pardon Donald Trump, harkening back to Ford’s “…long national nightmare is over”. I don’t think (or hope) Biden would do that, but anything is possible. But Trump won’t count on that.
Or, as a last act of defiance, President Donald Trump could pardon himself. It’s never been done, but there is no Constitutional prohibition against it. Should Donald Trump do this, he is ultimately throwing himself on the “mercy” of the Supreme Court, made up in part by three of his appointees. There are legal arguments on both sides. If he can’t get a Pence pardon – what does Trump have to lose?
But the most secure way for Trump to avoid prosecution would be a Pence Presidential pardon.
It’s THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION – Don’t be surprised!!
