Election Day
So, after one thousand, four hundred, sixty-one days, we have finally reached another Presidential Election Day. I wasn’t at all sure that we’d make it through “THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION” (Hamilton reference – “the Adams Administration”). But here we are. Hard to imagine: we are in the middle of a global pandemic, snatching children from parents on the border, and young Black men are at higher risk of dying from homicide than any other cause (CDC). Joe Biden, after trying for thirty years, is finally getting his shot at the Presidency and Donald Trump is campaigning for a second term, and a second chance. A decade ago, no one would have believed it as a movie script.
Margin of Error
A couple of weeks ago, I wrote a long essay, Likely Voters, on polling and the Presidential election. I warned that ignoring the “margin of error” could lead to “shock and awe” on election night. The most recent example is from Quinnipiac, a very reputable poll with a “B+” rating from “Five-Thirty Eight”. Their most recent Ohio poll showed Joe Biden with 48% of the vote to Trump’s 43%. Biden in the lead by 5% in Ohio seems more than extraordinary.
But in the fine print, Quinnipiac notes there is a 2.9% +/- margin of error in the poll. So Biden could be as high as 50.9%, or as low as 45.1%. Trump could be as high as 45.9%, even ahead of Biden, or as low as 40.1%. It definitely shows Ohio to be much closer than the “gut check – signs on the highway” Trump feeling you get. And while I’d rather be Biden in the poll, don’t lose track of the margin of error. We did in 2016.
I also wrote an essay, Electoral Math, laying out the path to the Electoral votes that both Trump and Biden need to reach 270, the number to win the Presidency. Assuming Biden wins all the states Hillary Clinton won, he starts with 233 Electoral Votes. Trump has more states but with fewer votes, and he starts with 125.
Florida-Florida-Florida
Since Mr. Trump has the harder road to 270, there are key states that will tell us early what may happen. Florida is already counting the early vote, and those numbers will be available soon after the polls close on Tuesday. Since in many parts of Florida, 80% or more of the total is early vote, we will have a good idea of what’s going on there – early. If we see that Biden is running ahead of Clinton’s 2016 totals, and that Trump is “under-performing” his 2016 effort, then it may well be Biden’s day.
So what are the “clues” to look for? President Trump is polling well with the Cuban/American community, better than he did in 2016. If that holds up, that might win the state. On the other hand, Biden seems to be doing much better than Clinton did with older Americans. If that stays true, particularly on Florida’s Gulf Coast, than it will impact more than just one state. Many of those “snow-bird” Floridians came from the Midwest – Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin. If they’re going for Biden, so might their “brethren” left in the cold north.
If Biden is at Clinton levels, then we know that Florida is going to be extremely close. That doesn’t mean that Biden is going to lose, but it does mean that a “Biden Blue Wave” is probably not in the cards. A close election in Florida probably portends a close election in the Midwest, and therefore the nation. By the way, if Florida does go to Biden – it’s over. Get a nightcap, in celebration or sadness depending on your view, and go to bed.
Early Tells
Ohio will also be a relatively early “call” on election night. Again, if Biden is running well ahead of the Clinton number of 2016, even if he doesn’t win the state, it means that the rest of the Midwest is likely to “return to Blue”. And if Biden wins Ohio (or Florida), it’s a solid indication that the election is over, and Biden is the next President.
Georgia may also be an early finisher. Democrats have lusted after Georgia’s electoral votes for years, but it’s been since Bill Clinton in 1992 that the Peach State went Blue. If Atlanta and the suburbs can overcome the rural parts of the state, it will be because of Stacey Abrams and her amazing efforts to counter Republican voter suppression. And, if Georgia goes for Biden, it’s time for that nightcap.
After Florida, Ohio and Georgia, the next results to watch carefully are from Texas. Something’s changed in the Lone Star State. More people have voted already, than voted in the entire 2016 election. What that means is still unclear, but theoretically there is a large portion of Democrats voting who didn’t in 2016. If that’s true, it could be the culmination of the work Beto O’Rourke started in his Senate campaign two years ago.
Texas turning “Blue” would be a total game changer. The last time Texas did, I was twenty and working for the 1976 Carter campaign – so it’s been a little while. Texas has the second biggest Electoral Vote in the nation, with 38. Simple math – Biden wins the 233 expected, then Texas at 38, and he is the next President. Have a nightcap – good or bad – and go to bed – it’s over.
Mail-In Votes
For the past four years we have been replaying the 2016 election. Clinton lost the “Blue Wall” states – Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. Out of the thirteen million votes cast in those three, Trump won by a total of 77744 votes. That’s 0.6%. The polling indicates that Wisconsin and Michigan should be solid Biden states, though still statistically within the margins of error. And while Biden holds a steady lead in Pennsylvania too, the race there seems to be tightening.
If Florida, Texas, and Ohio all go for Trump then Biden is back to the 2016 “Blue Wall” defense. And that’s when everything is going to get sticky.
All three states are relatively new to mail-in voting. And in all three, the Republican Party has filed lawsuits in court against counting mail-in ballots that arrive late. Meanwhile, in Philadelphia, Detroit and Milwaukee, the US Postal Service is failing to deliver on time almost half the time. So if you are looking for the nightmare, a 2000 Bush/Gore Florida election scenario – look no farther than the Federal District Courts in those three states. If the outcome comes down to the mail-in ballots, expect to see a “full court” (hah!) press by the Trump campaign to throw them out.
Expectations
So what are my expectations for Tuesday night? As my family will tell you, I am an optimist when it comes to Democratic Presidential candidates. I thought that Al Gore and Hillary Clinton would both be President. And while they both did win the popular vote, we still had to live through the Bush and Trump Presidencies.
I feel that there is a sea change occurring in American politics. So to crawl out on a limb (which my Trumpian friends will surely take pleasure sawing off) I think we are going to see a Blue “Tsunami”. Biden is going to win, big. Perhaps Florida big, perhaps even Georgia, Arizona and Ohio big. I’m struggling with Texas big, but maybe. But I do think that Biden will drag the US Senate with him, getting Senate seats in Arizona, Colorado, Maine, Georgia (maybe two) and North Carolina. I think the Dems will hold the Michigan seat, though I don’t see how to hang onto Doug Jones in Alabama.
And don’t forget that there’s a fight for the Senate in Iowa, and Montana, and even Alaska as well. Oh and wouldn’t it be sweet if Harrison beat Graham in South Carolina. So a Senate that is now 53 Republicans to 47 Democrats could end up 57 Dems to 43 Republicans. Sorry Mitch, game over.
If you’re going to predict, why not go big? So vote if you haven’t, and get prepared for Tuesday night, and Wednesday morning, if you have. It’s almost “game day”, and you might as well enjoy the suspense. It’s popcorn, beer, antacids, and a final nightcap. That might end up being a “Bloody Mary” – sometime after dawn on Wednesday morning.
