Countdown

In the Day

It’s six days before Election Day.  That has a different meaning now than it had in the “old days” when I was working campaigns.  Back then, in the 1970’s, the vast majority of Americans went to the polls and voted on “that day”.  It was the “Norman Rockwell – Saturday Evening Post” cover type of voting, as communities lined up to cast their ballots.  

As a political campaigner, the plan was to “peak” in the weekend before the election.  The last few weeks, the staff motto was “We’ll sleep after the vote”, and in the 1976 Carter/Mondale campaign I remember sleeping on the office floor for about a week.  Going home meant a quick shower and a meal, then back to the effort.

It made sense.  Perhaps 90% of the votes weren’t actually cast until Election Day.  You could change peoples’ minds, and get your voters out to the polls all the way until Tuesday.  And it really did make a difference.

Get Out The Vote (GOTV) was a Democratic specialty.  We had giant computer lists of voters, each carefully marked to highlight those who chose the Democratic ballot in the primaries.  We’d then reach out and try to contact each of those voters:  some by phone, and many by physically knocking on their door.  We sent “flying squads” of volunteers, mostly high school kids, into Democratic neighborhoods on the weekend before Election Day, using the “walking lists” of Democratic voters to encourage folks to vote.

Half the Vote

I’m sure all of that is still happening today.  But it has a lot less impact than it did back in the “old days”.  As of today, over 70 million Americans, more than half of the total vote count from 2016, have already voted.  They’ve done it in-person (like my wife and I did) in early voting sessions.  Or they filled out an absentee ballot and dropped it off at their local Board of Elections.  Or, in many states, they received mail-in ballots, and dropped it back in the mail to return.  

Somehow, the Postal Service has hit “a snag” in certain major cities.  The Service strives for a 90% “on time” arrival date for first class mail, one to three days.  In certain key cities: Philadelphia, Detroit, Milwaukee and Cleveland, the “on time” rate has fallen to near 50%.  That means that in this critical week for mail-in voting, almost half the mail in four critical electoral states is delayed.  And Republicans are going to Court to try to get ballots post-marked by Election Day but delivered after that day disqualified.  Guess which candidate the vast majority of voters in those “delayed” cities are voting for?  It sure isn’t Donald Trump.

It used to be that Republicans voted absentee, and Democrats lined up to vote on Election Day.  Now that script has flipped:  Democrats make up a much bigger part of the early vote.  And that’s why President Trump is making such a big deal about “the mail-in vote” and possible fraud.  It’s simple math:  if more Democrats vote before Election Day, then anything a Republican campaign can do to disqualify those votes, “wins”.  

Ethics and Lawyers

Ethical considerations don’t have very much to do with that decision-making.  President Trump himself said that if everyone voted by mail, no Republican could ever win again.  He wasn’t talking about “cheating”; he was simply stating the obvious.  The more people vote, the more likely it is that Democrats will win.  So making voting “hard” helps Republicans.  That fact alone ought to make you stop and consider what the Republican Party stands for.

American Thing

President Trump has “softened the ground” for Court action after the election. If the “regular” Election Day vote is counted first (and in most of the controversial states it is) and the “other” vote, mail-in, absentee, and early voting is counted last, then Trump might well be “winning” on Election night. If he could get the counting to stop right there, he could claim victory. So if there is a big early Trump lead in Pennsylvania or Michigan or Wisconsin, don’t be surprised to see the lawyers descend on those states to try to stop the “illegal” counting. It worked in Florida in 2000. (And just to add a little more controversy, Supreme Court Justices John Roberts, Brett Kavanaugh and Amy Coney Barrett worked as lawyers for the Bush effort in Florida that year edited after publication).

The “antidote” to all of that is an overwhelming victory.  Some states: notably Ohio, Florida, Texas, and Arizona will have the vast majority of their votes counted on Election Night anyway.  If Joe Biden wins three out of four of those states, the outcome will be clear.  But if it’s close, Trump/Clinton close or worse Bush/Gore close, then we are in for a long Election week or month, of counting, lawyers, and courtrooms.    

If you haven’t voted – do it.  It’s too late for mail-in voting.  If you’ve got a ballot, drop it off at your local Board of Elections.  Or, you can vote early there.  Or you can wait, and vote on Tuesday – the good old-fashioned way.  But make sure you plan to spend some time – it’s going to be the biggest election in American History.  However you chose to do it, one way or another, make your voice heard.  It’s the American thing to do.