Math Block
I was a social studies teacher, not a math teacher. And, to be honest, math was never my strongest subject anyway. I might blame my teachers – Mrs. Hibberd at Van Buren Junior High, who shoved me up against a locker for reading in her math class instead of doing homework, or that fateful junior year at Wyoming High School when the Algebra II teacher had a breakdown, and a series of substitutes left me with a ‘C’ in class and bereft of skills. But really, I just wasn’t a math guy.
So when I start calculating, it always deserves intense scrutiny and some skepticism. There’s the fair warning. But I have found some disturbing numbers, that don’t require skill in calculus to understand. In our current era of fake news and obfuscations, statistics are being used to cloud a whole range of issues.
Foggy Math
For example, the White House claims to have created the greatest number of jobs in American history. And it might well be true. In January of 2020, 132 million Americans had full-time employment. In April during the “shutdown”, that number dipped to 114 million, a loss of 18 million jobs. By August, 123 million Americans had full time jobs (Trading Economics). So the White House can claim that nine million jobs have been “created” in just the past few months. That’s as long as they don’t take any blame for the eighteen million lost.
But jobs numbers are always tricky; full time, part time, gig work, folks not working but still receiving pay, and on and on. While figures may not be lying, they certainly can be twisted and misleading.
Butcher’s Bill
COVID numbers are also not as simple as they appear. Today’s “butcher’s bill”: 6.46 million positive tests in the United States, and 193,253 deaths (Corona-Virus). Just on that number alone, three percent of those diagnosed with COVID-19 die.
But we know that testing figures are low, and that the rate of infection is probably much higher. So here’s where the “figuring and lying” comes in – but I think it still has validity.
Let’s say that the testing figure is off by an order of 3, meaning that at least 20 million Americans have been infected with COVID. And while it’s likely that many more people have died of COVID than just the 193000 listed, let’s simplify that figure. 20 million infected to 200000 dead – or 1% of those infected have died.
Herd immunity is when enough of the population has been infected or immunized with a disease that it no longer spreads from person to person. It assumes that you can get a disease once and then have immunity from that disease for a long time. While full “herd immunity” is in the ninety percent plus range, generally gaining “herd immunity” for the COVID-19 virus is considered to be around sixty percent of the US population. That’s roughly 200 million folks infected (or vaccinated if and when a vaccine arrives).
If the policy of the United States of America is to get to “herd immunity”without a vaccine, then we have to let at least 200 million people become infected. If the death rate remains at 1%, that means 2 million people will die from COVID-19.
Debate
As we approach 200,000 deaths in the next week or so, we need to have a discussion about what America wants to do. We can “go back” to the “good old days” of just eight months ago, let COVID spread quickly, and suffer the consequences. Or we can try to maintain control of the spread and hope that a vaccine will allow for a less fatal way of reaching some kind of “herd immunity”.
It’s not just an academic debate topic. What the US should do about COVID is a real life decision, with moral and real life consequences. It’s one that needs to be discussed in “the clear”, not quietly decided by a few advisors in the White House. And it certainly shouldn’t be a result of incompetent governing. If the US is going to allow the deaths of millions of its citizens, at least we ought to know it’s going to happen.
