Bush v Gore
It was “only” twenty years ago. Vice President Al Gore was the Democrat running to succeed Bill Clinton, against the Republican Governor of Texas, George W. Bush. Personally, as a Democrat disappointed in Clinton, Gore was only a small step up. He was a little less “moderate” than Clinton, but he was wooden as a campaigner. Clinton was able to immediate relate to folks. Gore tried to be that way, but came off as standoffish and mechanical.
George W. Bush on the other hand was the personable guy we still think of today. But a tough campaign staff offset his personal friendliness. John McCain found that out in the South Carolina primary, when Bush supporters circulated rumors of an illegitimate black child. It was “hard ball” politics, and a key factor in Bush’s win in South Carolina to lock up the Republican nomination (NYT).
The shadow across the Gore campaign was the Clinton Impeachment. Whatever you thought of the outcome, whether Clinton should have been impeached or removed or not; the facts we learned about his behavior in the White House were ugly. Of course, we learned a lot about Speaker Newt Gingrich, and Speaker-Elect Bob Livingston, and several other Congressmen as well. In the end, no one looked good.
Hanging Chads
So it shouldn’t have been a surprise that the November election was close. So close, that it came down to the electoral vote of Florida. And Florida came down to only a few hundred ballots out of the almost six million cast.
There is a scientific and mathematical term called “margin of error”. In any counting or polling, there is going to be some error in the results. In counting votes, or counting pennies, there will be some mistakes. Maybe it’s only one in ten thousand. But the Florida vote was so close, that it was within that margin. There were almost six million votes. A one in ten thousand margin of error was around six hundred. The deciding margin was five hundred and thirty-seven.
It also means that however many times you recounted, you would get different result each time.
And then there were the flaws in the ballots themselves. Many counties in Florida used “punch ballots”, where you punch out “chads” of paper so that a hole is left where you wanted to vote. But some “chads” don’t get punched completely out, and some folks didn’t push hard enough. Was a partially punched “chad” a vote for a candidate? What about a dimple?
And finally, there was the Palm Beach County ballot, the “butterfly ballot” where it was easy to confuse the “punch” for Gore for the “punch” for third party candidate Ralph Nader. How many Gore votes ended up as Nader votes was impossible to know. And how in the world could that error be undone?
The lawyers from both campaign descended, and Florida counted votes through Thanksgiving and on into December. Finally on December 9th the US Supreme Court, in a party line five to four vote, chose to stop the count. That made the winner George Bush.
Patriotic Duty
Many Democrats refused to accept the Supreme Court solution in Bush v Gore. It was only when Mr. Gore appeared in a nationwide address, and told the nation that he would support the new President, George W. Bush, that most began to accept the outcome. By the way, it’s worth a watch, if you’ve got eight minutes – a patriotic moment. By Christmas, there was lots of grumbling, but Vice President Gore led the Senate in counting the electoral votes and declaring Bush the victor. At the inauguration, Clinton and Gore made it clear that they were doing their best to transit the government to Bush (but some staff stole the “W’s” off of keyboards in the White House).
So here we are in 2020. The current President, Donald Trump, is maneuvering to have an “excuse” if the election doesn’t go his way. He’s already questioned the legitimacy of mail-in ballots, in spite of the fact we’ve been doing it since the Civil War. And he’s turned his back on international interference in our electoral process. So there is the question: will Donald Trump recognize the legitimacy of an election outcome that makes Joe Biden President?
Joe Biden, on the other hand, is a traditional American politician. There really is no question that if the “shoe’s on the other foot” and Trump somehow wins again, Biden will follow the tradition of Gore and the others. But Trump is not a “pro”, and he has made it clear that he has no problem being a “bad loser”.
Acceptance
And what about the “forces” of the Federal government? Trump hasn’t hesitated to use the military to pursue his political goals. Ask the thousands of troops moved to the Southern Border to stop the mythical “caravan” of illegal immigrants, right around the 2018 election. Or ask the thousands of Federal enforcement agents being mobilized today to go to “Democrat (sic) Cities”.
Defense Secretary Esper and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Milley have expressed regret at getting dragged into the clearing of Lafayette Square and the “policing” of Washington, DC. They seem prepared to fulfill the traditional role of the military in US elections: remain neutral. But until “orders” from the Commander in Chief come down, it’s difficult to tell what they would do.
Integrity
It’s not far fetched to envision a scenario where Biden or Trump wins by a narrow margin, weeks after Election Day as counting mail-in ballots progresses past Thanksgiving. After an ugly campaign, those weeks would be even more divisive. Taking the lessons of 2000, lawyers from both sides would descend on critical Boards of Elections, trying to put “their thumb” on the scale of the count for their candidate.
By the time it’s all concluded will either candidate accept the result? Will the American people?
The election of 2020 is a critical turning point in the story of American democracy. Whatever side of the political fray you find yourself, it will be an election held under unique circumstances, one conducted in the middle of a world pandemic. And we have already spent seven months learning to question every statement by the “experts” about COVID; it won’t be a big step to question the “experts” in counting votes.
There’s really only one way out. One candidate needs to win so decisively that there can be no question as to the will of the nation. But in a nation so divided, there’s no certainty of that. So to quote MSNBC host Rachel Maddow, “buckle-up”! This won’t be over on Election Day.
