Political Will

“There go the people. I must follow them, for I am their leader.” – Alexandre Ledru-Rollin– a leader of the French Revolution of 1848

Ahead of Opinion

Franklin Delano Roosevelt had already served seven years as President of the United States by 1940.  He had come into office facing the existential crisis of the Great Depression. There was near 25% unemployment, the banks failed and closed, and Americans starving in the streets.  Now in 1940 the unemployment rate was still at 17%. And though the New Deal had managed to reduce much of the raw suffering, times were still tough in America.

The United States was a nation turned inward.  World War II in Europe began in September of 1939, but most Americans wanted no part of another European conflict.  The scars of World War I, and the aftermath of the failed peace plan, led them to turn away from the threat of Nazism.  And while Japan had been waging war in Asia since 1932, it was still an ocean away.  Americans didn’t see Japanese imperialism as a threat.

Roosevelt did. And he saw Nazism for what it was: an overarching world peril. He knew that ultimately it would be the United States that would have to stand up to Hitler. But he also knew that the American people, and the United States Congress, weren’t prepared to make that commitment, yet. Congress was already hamstringing his efforts. If Roosevelt moved too fast or pushed too hard, Congress would further restrict him. So he had to maneuver American actions and policies, staying carefully “neutral” while knowing full well what would need to be done.

It wasn’t until September of 1940 that the draft was instituted to build up the armed forces.  And it wasn’t Germany at all, but Japan’s attack at Pearl Harbor on December 7^th, the ultimately pushed the American people into war.

Governor DeWine

Last week, Ohio Governor Mike DeWine spoke to the people of the state about the COVID-19 crisis.  Many thought that DeWine would institute a statewide mandate to wear facemasks in public, or might even call for a “shelter-in-place” order for the most affected counties.  But while some mandates were issued for counties that had dramatically increased infection rates, the Governor mostly urged Ohioans to take action on their own, without “orders” from the state government.  

 “…I’m asking you, I’m calling on all of you, to once again unite. This virus is real. It’s killing our family members, our friends, our co-workers. We must take the long view in a response to it and remember that Ohioans have always been a strong, determined, resilient people who time and time again have overcome adversity and beat the odds” (Governor Mike DeWine, July 15, 2020).  

In that speech he also referred to Franklin Roosevelt and James Cox, the Governor of Ohio during the 1918 Flu Pandemic.  Cox, much like DeWine today, referred health responses to local cities and counties, rather than a statewide approach.  And much like Roosevelt in 1940, DeWine was careful not to outdistance his support.

A Strong Stand

In the first round of COVID-19 reaction in March, the Governor took a strong stand. Along with the Amy Acton, the Director of Public Health, DeWine stopped the Ohio Primary election in March, and mandated a general state closure.  Ohioans responded well, virtually “closing down” the state for more than a month.  Unlike states on the east coast, Ohio had fewer infections, and the hospitals had plenty of capacity to handle incoming cases.

And DeWine was cautious about letting the state reopen.  Unlike Arizona, Texas, Georgia or Florida, Ohio waited until late May to reopen its economy.  But when it did, the Governor who had been so strong in March and April, all of a sudden became tentative.  What originally was a mask “mandate” became a “strong suggestion”, and the Dr. Acton, was sidelined.  So what happened?

Legislative Will

There were a series of demonstrations in the state, by folks demanding that DeWine allow things to reopen.  Often, those demonstrators combined their signs with legal arms, making for an intimidating force on the Statehouse lawn.  And the demonstrators were not only Ohioans but also Republicans, the same voters that supported DeWine and the majority Republican legislature in the first place.  

In early May, the State House of Representatives passed a bill severely restricting the Director of Public Health powers, and ultimately the Governor’s ability to deal with the crisis.  Speaker of the House Larry Householder made it clear that he thought Ohio had to follow the lead of the Southern states and reopen as soon as possible.  The proposed legislation moved much of the power to make those decisions to the legislative rather than the executive’s hands.

Ultimately the bill did not pass the State Senate.  But for DeWine the writing was on the wall.  Like Roosevelt in 1940, he might know what needed to be done.  But DeWine couldn’t get too far ahead of the legislature, or the citizens.  And he knew, even if he had the political courage to risk losing an election, the State Legislature would respond to their supporters.  It wasn’t the minority Democrats demanding the state re-open; it was his and the majority’s own political party.

A Piecemeal Solution

So Governor DeWine continues to use a county-by-county response to this “first wave” of the COVID-19 infection.  As rates rise in urban areas, those counties:  Hamilton, Montgomery, Franklin, Lucas, Summit and Cuyahoga are moved onto the “Red” alert list.  But the virus doesn’t respect county lines, so the surrounding counties, and those of other smaller Ohio cities, are also on “Red”.  

It’s probably the best that the Governor can do.  If he gets too far out ahead of the Legislature, then like Wisconsin, he’ll find that he’s lost his authority to act at all.  The present “color coded” plan responds to the virus, for the moment.  It will take a greater crisis, one that the citizens of Ohio recognize as undeniable, to give the Governor the strength to act.

Let’s hope it doesn’t cost too many Ohio lives.