Doug Collins
“A Clock and a calendar” was the term made famous by Republican Congressman Doug Collins during the Donald Trump Impeachment hearings, so long ago (six months in real time). Collins constantly referred to it, trying to use it as a cudgel to beat the Democratic majority. “It’s not a fair investigation,” he’d cry, “They (the majority) have denied the minority and the President representation and due process. They are controlled by a clock and a calendar”.
What he really meant was that the Democrats in the House were well aware that the closer to the 2020 election they came, the less likely (and more unseemly) the impeachment would be. The only penalty of conviction from impeachment is removal from office. As the 2020 election approached, that becomes the ultimate power of the voter, not to be usurped by the Congress.
Doug Collins wasn’t wrong about that part. As far as representation was concerned, the President’s representatives refused to cooperate enough to earn participation. The Supreme Court just ruled that their theory of “Absolute Immunity” from subpoena was false, and that was the issue the Democrats in the House held it as key to giving them a say. And the Republicans in the House certainly got a lot of “say”. From Jim Jordan to Louie Gohmert to young Matt Gaetz, and of course from Ranking Minority Member Collins himself; we heard from the Republicans aplenty.
Voter’s Choice
The clock was running, and the calendar turning. Now, no matter what the President might do it is up to the voters. Whether he grants a commutation of sentence to Roger Stone for lying to the FBI and Congress, throws Michael Cohen back in jail to keep him silent, or “pardons” Vladimir Putin for putting a bounty on American lives in Afghanistan; the decision will be made by ballot, not Senatorial vote.
But the “clock and calendar” are running for the Trump Campaign as well. They have found an “event” they cannot falsify, spin, or call “fake news”. The COVID-19 pandemic is relentless. They can demand what they want, but the virus doesn’t seem to care. And the infection numbers are growing, in spite of social media obfuscations and the loyalty of Governors in Arizona and Florida.
Manafort and Stone
And the clock and calendar were definitely running out for Roger Stone. He was days away from reporting to the Federal prison system, probably a shaky place to be for a sixty-seven year old man with a portrait of Richard Nixon tattooed on his back. From Trump’s political standpoint, it would have been better to let Stone serve a few months, until after the election. That’s because while for Trump’s true enthusiasts Roger Stone’s commutation was well deserved, for those less enthralled it might seem a bit too political and friendly. It might impact the few who haven’t made up their mind about voting for or against Mr. Trump. But that really didn’t matter. Roger Stone didn’t want to go to jail, and he had a choice.
Roger Stone, and Paul Manafort, had been “good soldiers” for Trump. They had stuck to the story, not giving prosecutors anything they could use against the Trump campaign of 2016. Manafort even pretended to “cooperate” with prosecutors so he could get more information to share with Trump’s attorneys. And when that came to light, Manafort went to prison, still closed mouth about Trump 2016.
They would say that they are emulating one of their mentors, G. Gordon Liddy of Watergate fame. But Manafort was also indebted to Russian oligarchs. There might well be a separate threat on his life, keeping his mouth closed to reporters and those who could reduce his sentence. So he did time, and when the first hints of COVID-19 reached the federal prison system, he was released to home confinement. He too may receive a pardon or commutation, but it can wait until after November.
Going to Jail
But Stone was going to jail. If the Trump Administration didn’t find a better way to intervene, Stone could talk. He could talk about his communications with Wikileaks, he could let the world know about his telephone calls with Trump himself. And it’s Roger Stone: so if the facts weren’t “juicy” enough to convince prosecutors to keep him out of jail, he would make up something better. And that would have an impact on the November election: a Stone admission of cooperation with Wikileaks as the intermediary for the campaign could influence those few undecided votes.
Stone represented a threat to the Trump 2020 campaign. So how to give him what he wants, no jail time, and still keep him obligated to silence? Loyalty to Trump wasn’t enough anymore. A full pardon would have freed Stone to say whatever he wanted. Stone could have written a book, timed to come out in October for maximum sales that would have set him financially for life. It’s not like Stone’s going to work as a political operative anymore.
A full pardon would have relieved Stone of his Fifth Amendment right against self-incrimination. But a commutation isn’t a pardon; it doesn’t clear the verdict of guilty. It simply removes the penalty. Stone can’t “confess” to crimes that he could still be charged for, and he can walk into the Grand Jury and demand immunity for any acts he might have done. Stone’s commutation keeps him out of jail, but still on the hook. Exactly where Trump wants him.
Time’s Up
Because the clock and the calendar have run out for the Trump campaign. They are facing a mountain far steeper even than the one they climbed in August of 2016. And, regardless (or irregardless – it’s in the dictionary now!) of the politics, competence in dealing with COVID will be the ultimate determiner of who wins in November. The clock has already run out for Trump on that.
