Bounty
The New York Times broke the story Friday night. United States intelligence sources had convincing information that Russian Special Forces were paying Taliban soldiers in Afghanistan a bounty for American soldiers. Put simply, Russia was paying to kill Americans, and they were doing it with US dollars. The Trump Administration immediately denied this, but reporting by the Washington Post, the Wall Street Journal, NBC News, the Associated Press, and others have confirmed the story.
Historically that’s nothing new. During the French and Indian War, the British paid a “reward” for enemy scalps, as much as £130 for male Indian scalps (Hands On). In a war where much of the fighting was by “proxy”, with both the French and British using varying tribes to pursue their objectives in North America, scalps were a way to guarantee kills.
Real Politk
But why would Russia do this? The United States has already reached a tentative agreement with the Taliban. America is to withdraw from Afghanistan over the next eighteen months, though the government of Afghanistan has yet to sign on. The answer is that the Russians know that the United States is withdrawing to end the loss of “blood and treasure” from the nineteen year Afghan war, the longest in American history. The driving force for leaving is the pain of that loss, and Russia is making sure that pain continues until the final GI’s are gone. Then Afghanistan is open to other power persuasion and particularly to Russian influence.
From a pure “world real politik” perspective, perhaps the Russian strategy makes sense. They are no longer able to “play” as an equal power to the United States, but President Putin can put pressure around the edges of American policy, trying to force acts to Russia’s advantage.
And from that same “Kissinger-ian” place, the United States should be responding is some proportionate way. It could be in Russian blood, but it could also be in the form of treasure. Economic sanctions would work, since it seems that money is the root of Putin’s power and desires. But, at least publicly, the United States is taking no action at all. In fact, the US response seems to be denying that the bounties ever happened.
Conspiracy
Here in America, a conspiracy theory holds that Vladimir Putin has some overarching control over Donald Trump, preventing US President from acting against him. The theory tries to explain Trump’s continual actions towards Putin; perhaps that he’s so indebted to Russian banks that Putin literally “owns” him. Or, that Putin’s support in the 2016 election was so crucial, that Trump cannot stand against him now. Or perhaps there is some “Kompromat”, blackmail that the Russian holds over Trump.
These charges were the basis for the Mueller investigation. We now know that the former FBI Director was hamstrung in his efforts, and left many stones “unturned”. Charges were never brought against Trump or his family. Americans were left with a tantalizing “report” that raised hundreds of questions, but failed to “close the deal”, either way. So when President Trump denies the intelligence information exists, it falls right into the “puppet of Putin” narrative.
Plausible Deniability
But there is a second, and even more disappointing possibility. It is well known that President Trump doesn’t want “bad news”; particularly when it comes to Russia and Putin. It is reported that his aides are often castigated for telling Trump things he doesn’t want to hear and several top advisors, from Bolton to Mattis to Tillerson, left the Administration because of this.
So it’s possible that no one wanted to tell Trump about the Russian plot. Even though there was a documented National Security Council meeting last April to discuss the intelligence, perhaps no one could be persuaded to bring it to the President. Or more insidiously, they could “inform” him without risking his wrath. President Trump doesn’t like to read. His intelligence briefers have taken to PowerPoint presentations, with graphs and illustrations, to try to keep his interest.
Maybe they just put the Russian intelligence in writing. Buried in the PDB, the Presidential Daily Brief, and Trump was “informed” without anyone suffering consequences. That way when it came out, there was “proof” that Trump was told. Richard Nixon in the old Watergate days called it “plausible deniability”: maybe the intelligence briefers were looking for similar cover.
Malpractice
Perhaps Donald Trump is “owned” by Putin. Or maybe he’s established an environment so corrosive that his advisors can’t bring him “bad news”. Or most likely, he simply fails to do the homework necessary to be the President of the United States. In any case, Donald Trump is demonstrating again, that he is unfit for the office he holds.
It’s just one more “brick in the wall” of Presidential malfeasance. Trump himself has said he couldn’t focus on the COVID-19 crisis, because he was being impeached. After the murder of Floyd George, he has acted to further divide the nation. And throughout his term he has done nothing to prevent continued foreign interference in the American electoral process.
And now Russia pays dollars to kill American troops. Trump has launched attacks: but it’s against the New York Times and, his favorite target, the intelligence agencies. There seems to be no response against Russia. At worst that’s criminal: at best, it’s Presidential malpractice.
