Anticipation

Sure it’s Carly Simon – but it really was that ketchup ad – wasn’t it?

The Song                                 The Ad

The Stats

The United States has the highest amount of infections for COVID-19 in the world with over 1.1 million (discounting the numbers that China probably is lying about).  The United States has the highest deaths from COVID-19 (maybe China, again) with over 67,000 lost as of this writing.  And yet, so far, we have dodged the bullet.

Our leading epidemiologists anticipated infections in the 20 million or more range, and deaths at 200,000 or more.  So there are a couple of caveats:  we haven’t tested enough to actually know what the infection rate is, and we only know the cause of death of those tested.  How many passed away in nursing homes, or at home, or from “pneumonia” or other causes that actually died from COVID-19, we really don’t know.

The Heart

But we do know this:  Americans took the recommendations to “socially distance” and “stay at home” to heart.  We did it, we “beat the odds” and actually did more than the epidemiologists ever expected.  Yes, over 30 million Americans filed for unemployment.  Yes, there were toilet paper shortages, and now there is likely to be meat missing in the freezers.  And there is the psychological price we’ve paid for being at home.  It will be interesting to see the number of divorces, and declared alcoholism, that will appear when all this is over.

But May 1^st was the deadline.  The entire last paragraph was written in the “past” tense.  We’ve paid the price, and now we get to fulfill our Anticipation.  Back to the bar, or the beach, or the ballgame.  In our head, it’s over – right?

The Deadline

But nothing has really changed.  COVID-19 is more ubiquitous than ever.  More people have it, and more can spread it, than before St. Patrick’s Day when all of this began.  Sure, for the moment, we “flattened the curve” and prevented the unthinkable:  hospitals so overwhelmed that they allowed some to die so others could live.  The Trump Administration keeps saying it:  “No American died from lack of a ventilator.”  I hope that’s true.

But we really are just in those first few weeks of March again.  If we re-open, go back to the bars and the beaches and the ballparks, the whole thing will start over again.  

The American people are known for their great hearts, and their lack of patience.  We’ve been anticipating “FREEDOM!!!” (Remember that memorable cry from Mel Gibson in Braveheart) and we were promised it, kind of, on May 1^st.  

The Governor

I think Governor DeWine here in Ohio did exactly what he had to do.  He couldn’t have said, back in early March, we’re going to close down Ohio until there’s a vaccine.  That would be maybe a year or more.  He couldn’t even say “June,” we had to wait until the end of April for him to start even hinting at that.  DeWine carefully measured the patience of the people of Ohio, and then made his decision.  It was May 1^st, until April 27^th.  Then, it wasn’t.  

Now he’s slipping a few “freedoms” out there, letting some people go back to work, and opening some stores.  But Mike DeWine knows that nothing has really changed unless the people of Ohio make it change.  And he’s under pressure from “his right”, the social media infused, AR-15 toting folks down at the statehouse, and the more “normal” folks who are looking at paying May bills without May salaries. 

This is where other countries got it right, and the United States didn’t.  Sure, most got $1200 from the IRS last month, but it wasn’t enough, and it doesn’t cover the May bills.  Canada and other countries put much of the workforce on “government salaries” to keep them home.  Here in “good old capitalist” America, we are forcing meat packing workers back into the cauldrons of COVID-19 transmission.  Upton Sinclair would find it oddly familiar.

What’s Next

When faced with the inability to pay for food, or rent, or transportation, many Americans will risk COVID-19. That they are making that choice for themselves is one thing, but the reality is that in doing so they are spreading infection to others.  The attitude seems to be, well, too bad?  We might not be able to “flatten” the next curve.

And Governor DeWine is stuck in the middle.  Much as he wants to mandate wearing facemasks, he backed away from it.  Much as he wants to keep our state buttoned up, he’s got to let some things open.  DeWine knows he’s risking the “bullet” coming back on us, but he doesn’t have a choice. 

 There’s been too much “anticipation”.

Morning Workout

So, I do a workout most mornings.  Since I’m “online teaching”, I time-shift my schedule, doing school work from six to eight, then take an hour to hit the elliptical machine and do some calisthenics.   It’s good to do something to stay in shape, particularly in this time of  “stay-at-home orders”.  

This morning I made sure I was on the elliptical machine when Mika Brezhenski interviewed Joe Biden on MSNBC’s Morning Joe.  This was Biden’s first response to an accusation of sexual assault made by former staffer, Tera Reade.  

Reade was a junior member of Biden’s Senate staff in 1993.  A couple years ago, she claimed that Biden inappropriately touched her hair and shoulder in a Senate hallway during that time.  She readily admits she is unclear on the actual time or date.  Her accusation fits a pattern that other women have said about Biden, that he was a “touchy-feely” man. Biden hugged, patted, and put his hands on shoulders, men as well as women.  Some women complain that they felt that contact was inappropriate, and Biden issued a blanket apology for making them feel uncomfortable.

But two weeks ago, Ms. Reade changed her accusation.  She now says that then-Senator Biden did more than just inappropriately touch her:  that he in fact reached under her clothing and penetrated her with his fingers.  The “inappropriate touching” became sexual assault.  She even went so far as to file a police report with the Washington DC police, even though the statute of limitations has long passed. Oddly, the report does not name Biden, though she later said that it was him (Washington Times).

#METOO

If this were Donald Trump, I would assume that the woman was telling the truth.  It certainly would fit the pattern of dozens of other women who claim the Trump did those kinds of things.  I wouldn’t even wait for any further “evidence” that could exist.  It’s the kind of guy Trump is, from paying-off affairs to the Access Hollywood tape.  Somehow though, Trump has gotten a “pass” from much of the nation for his actions.

But as a Democrat in the third year of the #METOO era, I am in a difficult dilemma.  I believe that there are men who abuse their power and assault women.  I’ve known some men like that, and I’ve supported women who stood up against them.  I was and still am appalled that our politics are so polarized that many of my Republican friends found ways to excuse Mr. Trump’s behavior.  

The Record

I reluctantly agreed that Democratic Senator Al Franken resign from the Senate.  Franken too was a “touchy-feely” guy, but worse, a former comedian with photos showing him pretending to commit sexual assault.  It all broke at the height of the Alabama Senate campaign, with Democrat Doug Jones running against a credibly accused child molester, Judge Roy Moore.  The national party had to make a clear demarcation between Moore and Trump-like behavior and what Democrats stand for.  Franken paid the price.

And I also agree that Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh got a “pass” for his possible behaviors.  Some credible (and some not so credible) claims were made that he committed sexual assaults.  The critical event of that time weren’t so much the charges, but that there was no real investigation into the women’s claims.  Instead, the FBI was ordered to do a whitewash, and prevented from following up any leads they received.  The Republican Senate made sure that Kavanaugh owed them for a lifetime; in return he received his lifetime appointment to the Court.

The Interview

So here I am, hitting my mileage on the machine, and listening to Joe Biden.  Here are Biden’s bullet points:

• Biden absolutely denies the accusation.  He allowed no “wiggle room”; he didn’t say he “can’t recall”.  Biden said it didn’t happen.
• He asked the Senate Secretary to have the National Archives open his files from the era, looking through all the personnel records to find the complaint she said was made.  The former Vice President is confident there is no such complaint.
• He has asked his staff at the time – no one remembers a complaint.
• He believes that a woman should be heard, and that her complaints should be considered credible.  Then there should be and investigation, and the truth found.  Biden is clear that the truth is that nothing happened.  
• He doesn’t see a contradiction between his stand in the Kavanaugh hearing and his stand today.  He believes that there wasn’t a real investigation of Kavanaugh.
• Biden made it clear he wasn’t questioning Tara Reade’s motives.

There is a “controversy” about Biden’s personal papers, now in possession of the University of Delaware.  Biden donated the papers to be cataloged and kept after his political career was over.  Delaware reasonably thought that would be in 2020, before Biden entered the Presidential campaign.  The “seal” has been extended.  Biden states that the papers contain his personal comments and conversations with world leaders and President Obama.  Legally personnel records cannot be included in those records.

Releasing them would not only hurt a future President Biden in his dealings with other nations, but would be a treasure trove of opposition research for his political enemies.  The records at Delaware are staying sealed. 

My Standard

So do I have a double standard? Well, I have seen and heard the evidence of Trump’s activities.  I have seen the evidence of Roy Moore’s activities.  I saw the pictures of Al Franken.  None of us saw the evidence regarding Kavanaugh; they weren’t allowed to pursue it.  So right now, I’ll listen to what Ms. Reade has to say.  But I’ll need to see more than just a changing story from twenty-seven years ago to believe her.  That’s my standard, and I’m sticking to it.