Anticipation

Sure it’s Carly Simon – but it really was that ketchup ad – wasn’t it?

The Song                                 The Ad

The Stats

The United States has the highest amount of infections for COVID-19 in the world with over 1.1 million (discounting the numbers that China probably is lying about).  The United States has the highest deaths from COVID-19 (maybe China, again) with over 67,000 lost as of this writing.  And yet, so far, we have dodged the bullet.

Our leading epidemiologists anticipated infections in the 20 million or more range, and deaths at 200,000 or more.  So there are a couple of caveats:  we haven’t tested enough to actually know what the infection rate is, and we only know the cause of death of those tested.  How many passed away in nursing homes, or at home, or from “pneumonia” or other causes that actually died from COVID-19, we really don’t know.

The Heart

But we do know this:  Americans took the recommendations to “socially distance” and “stay at home” to heart.  We did it, we “beat the odds” and actually did more than the epidemiologists ever expected.  Yes, over 30 million Americans filed for unemployment.  Yes, there were toilet paper shortages, and now there is likely to be meat missing in the freezers.  And there is the psychological price we’ve paid for being at home.  It will be interesting to see the number of divorces, and declared alcoholism, that will appear when all this is over.

But May 1^st was the deadline.  The entire last paragraph was written in the “past” tense.  We’ve paid the price, and now we get to fulfill our Anticipation.  Back to the bar, or the beach, or the ballgame.  In our head, it’s over – right?

The Deadline

But nothing has really changed.  COVID-19 is more ubiquitous than ever.  More people have it, and more can spread it, than before St. Patrick’s Day when all of this began.  Sure, for the moment, we “flattened the curve” and prevented the unthinkable:  hospitals so overwhelmed that they allowed some to die so others could live.  The Trump Administration keeps saying it:  “No American died from lack of a ventilator.”  I hope that’s true.

But we really are just in those first few weeks of March again.  If we re-open, go back to the bars and the beaches and the ballparks, the whole thing will start over again.  

The American people are known for their great hearts, and their lack of patience.  We’ve been anticipating “FREEDOM!!!” (Remember that memorable cry from Mel Gibson in Braveheart) and we were promised it, kind of, on May 1^st.  

The Governor

I think Governor DeWine here in Ohio did exactly what he had to do.  He couldn’t have said, back in early March, we’re going to close down Ohio until there’s a vaccine.  That would be maybe a year or more.  He couldn’t even say “June,” we had to wait until the end of April for him to start even hinting at that.  DeWine carefully measured the patience of the people of Ohio, and then made his decision.  It was May 1^st, until April 27^th.  Then, it wasn’t.  

Now he’s slipping a few “freedoms” out there, letting some people go back to work, and opening some stores.  But Mike DeWine knows that nothing has really changed unless the people of Ohio make it change.  And he’s under pressure from “his right”, the social media infused, AR-15 toting folks down at the statehouse, and the more “normal” folks who are looking at paying May bills without May salaries. 

This is where other countries got it right, and the United States didn’t.  Sure, most got $1200 from the IRS last month, but it wasn’t enough, and it doesn’t cover the May bills.  Canada and other countries put much of the workforce on “government salaries” to keep them home.  Here in “good old capitalist” America, we are forcing meat packing workers back into the cauldrons of COVID-19 transmission.  Upton Sinclair would find it oddly familiar.

What’s Next

When faced with the inability to pay for food, or rent, or transportation, many Americans will risk COVID-19. That they are making that choice for themselves is one thing, but the reality is that in doing so they are spreading infection to others.  The attitude seems to be, well, too bad?  We might not be able to “flatten” the next curve.

And Governor DeWine is stuck in the middle.  Much as he wants to mandate wearing facemasks, he backed away from it.  Much as he wants to keep our state buttoned up, he’s got to let some things open.  DeWine knows he’s risking the “bullet” coming back on us, but he doesn’t have a choice. 

 There’s been too much “anticipation”.