Campaign Frozen
Joe Biden is now labeled as the “apparent” Democratic nominee for President in 2020. There are a lot of delegates yet to be chosen. Worse, there are a lot of elections that no one knows how to actually conduct. We already are hearing of voters who got COVID-19 voting in the Wisconsin primary. We know, inevitably, someone will die because the voters of Wisconsin were forced to line up and vote.
By the way, the Facebook “meme” claiming that if people can lineup to get into Wal-Mart then they should be willing to line up to vote, is bogus. Lining up to vote, to exercise your citizenship right as an American, should not be a life threatening choice. Lining up to get into Wal-Mart may well be a dangerous choice today, but the difference is you don’t HAVE to go to Wal-Mart. There are always other ways, including online shopping and Wal-Mart’s Grocery Pickup that avoids the line, the crowd, and the risk of getting sick.
But there’s no such thing as a “voting” pickup in Wisconsin. If you don’t meet the “requirement” for absentee voting, you either show, or don’t vote. Of course, people could lie to get an absentee ballot, but voting fraud shouldn’t be the only reasonable choice a citizen can make to cast their ballot.
So let’s get back to Joe Biden’s problem. He’s going to be the nominee, but the elections may not be held to gather the 1991 delegates to win. Biden currently has 1305. There will be more elections; Ohio will close its March 17th vote on April 28th and those delegates will be added. But other states may never get around to having a primary.
Virtual Balloons
And while the Convention itself has moved from July until August, there isn’t even an actual date set for the event. Will it really happen in Milwaukee, or just be a giant “Zoom” event. And what about all of the free publicity a convention offers a candidate challenging the sitting President? Will Biden get the rousing endorsement speech we all expect from Barack Obama, or will it be a home televised event from the Obama basement? Will Biden himself ever get to make that final acceptance speech on a podium to applause and red, white and blue balloons, or will he speak from his home in Delaware?
All of this underlines Biden’s biggest issue: how to campaign in a COVID-19 world. I’ve been listening to MSNBC, a Biden friendly zone, for five hours this morning (while I did school work). For five hours it’s been COVID-19. There must be NO other news; the virus news has literally taken up all of the oxygen in the air. Biden’s name was not mentioned.
Other Democrats have offices and roles that give them more visibility than the presumptive nominee. New York Governor Cuomo, leading the nation’s greatest struggle against the virus, get’s airtime every day. Chuck Schumer, Senator Minority Leader comments on legislation. Nancy Pelosi, Speaker of the House, is highly visible with the Democratic agenda. But Biden is able to only push out some social media from Delaware; little more is getting out in “the world”.
No Campaign Trail
And even as some states “open” it’s not likely that Biden will be able to resume the campaign trail. Besides, why would Democrats risk Biden’s health to COVID-19? Just because the Governors of Georgia and South Carolina are willing to risk their state’s population, Democrats shouldn’t put Biden on the block.
So in our brave new COVID-19 world, how does a man run for President? And even if the virus lifts in the summer, what happens to campaign momentum if, as the scientists predict, the virus re-emerges in the fall? The President will still have his “bully pulpit” but will the Democratic nominee have a podium? And finally, how far can a candidate go running against a President embroiled in a national crisis of the first order?
All of these questions are important, if the question of the election is Trump versus Biden. That’s traditional campaign thought, and what we all expect will happen. But to upset that traditional paradigm, the 2020 election may not be the man-to-man campaign that both Biden and Trump want. It’s just as likely to simply be a test of Trump, the popular evaluation of his four years, and particularly the last year. It will by about his competency as President.
And if that’s the case, then Joe Biden should stay low. He’s got it in the bag.
