Month: March 2020

The Threat

How big a threat does Donald Trump consider Joe Biden to be to his Presidency?  So large, that he was willing to risk the office, face impeachment and join the short list of three, to muddy Biden’s reputation.  When Biden seemed like he was failing, he fell off of the GOP radar.  Now that he’s back as one of two candidates for the Democratic nomination, guess what’s back?

Monday, Senator and Trump lackey Ron Johnson threatened to issue a subpoena to a private company to investigate Burisma. Johnson claims the company, named Blue Star,  “sought to leverage Hunter Biden’s role as a board member of Burisma to gain access to, and potentially influence matters at, the State Department” (Politico).

Johnson is using his position as Chairman of the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee to leverage the investigation.  Democrats on the Committee are warning the Republicans that they are, “concerned that the United States Senate and this committee could be used to further disinformation efforts by Russian or other actors” (Politico).

This move is despite warnings from fellow Republican Chairman Lindsey Graham (Judiciary) and Richard Burr (Intelligence) about treating such intelligence as Russian disinformation.

The Tactic

The Republicans learned at the “feet” of former Congressman, turned Fox News commentator, Trey Gowdy.  Gowdy spent two and a half years, issued a 700-page report and spent $7.8 million to investigate Hillary Clinton and her involvement in the Benghazi disaster and the death of Ambassador Chris Stevens.  While ultimately the Committee was unable to blame Clinton for any wrongdoing, there were able to “drag Clinton through the mud” for more than two years before her run for President.    As now House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy said in September of 2015:

“Everybody thought Hillary Clinton was unbeatable, right? But we put together a Benghazi special committee, a select committee. What are her numbers today? Her numbers are dropping. Why? Because she’s untrustable. But no one would have known any of that had happened, had we not fought” (WAPO).

Donald Trump had the highest unfavorable ratings historically of recent Presidential candidate at the end of the 2016 election cycle, 61%.  His only chance of beating Hillary Clinton was to make her nearly as “unfavorable” as he was.  Starting with the Benghazi hearings and then the FBI email investigations, Clinton reached a negative rating of 52%, nearly as bad at Trump, and close enough to create the extreme conditions where Trump won the Electoral College despite losing the popular vote by three million votes (Gallup). 

Today Donald Trump has a 52% disapproval rating.   Currently Biden has a 47% rating, though this rating is based on polling done prior to the South Carolina and Super Tuesday primaries.  To replicate the election strategy of 2016, Trump must make Biden as unfavorable as he is.

The Mud

It won’t just be investigations of Hunter Biden and Burisma.  It will be attacks on Biden himself, about his age and his well know propensity to commit verbal “gaffes”.  And I’m sure there will be some weird sexual allegations about Biden “inappropriately touching”.  If Biden gets the nomination, watch for an “October Surprise”.  

Truth isn’t the issue.  Finding “real dirt” won’t be the problem.  We are in the “post-fact age,” so there is no need for veracity.  And it will be aided by the powerful social media presence of the Trump campaign, and added to by Russian Intelligence.  

So get ready.  We are going to hear all sorts of things about Joe Biden, most not true.  But, as Alexander Hamilton noted two hundred and twenty four years ago:

“The public mind fatigued at length with resistance to the calumnies which eternally assail it, is apt in the end to sit down with the opinion that a person so often accused cannot be entirely innocent”(Hamilton – The Reynolds Pamphlet).

Baked In

The public perception of Trump is baked in.  We already know he’s a misogynist, a racist, a narcissist, and a whole lot of other “ist” words.  There is little a President, elected without a majority, impeached by Congress for a crime he admitted doing, could possibly do to make the public see him as any worse.

A segment of our American society has bought the lie:  we need a bad man to make our country better.  It is the “myth” of the Fox show Twenty-Four:  to “protect America” we need Jack Bauer, willing to break any law and violate any moral. Trump himself has made that point explicitly by defending, protecting and pardoning Eddie Gallagher, a disgraced Navy Seal who murdered a teenage prisoner, then took a “trophy” picture with the body to send to his friends.

Joe Biden has been in the service of America since the 1970’s.  Unlike many, he did not enrich himself in service in the Senate.  He came in the poorest Senator, and he left the Senate thirty some years later still as the poorest.  He has been prone to verbal “gaffes” since he first ran for President in 1987, it’s not a sign of “old age,” it’s him.  We all know that from the stage-whispered “this is a big f**king deal” in Obama’s ear when the Affordable Care Act was passed.  

So Biden will “be in the barrel”.  It will be up to America to ignore the lies.  

Shock and Awe

The clear winner of Super Tuesday was former Vice President Joe Biden.  He won the South:  North Carolina, Virginia, Alabama, Tennessee, Arkansas, and Oklahoma. Oh, and by the way, he won Texas as well.  He won in the North:  Massachusetts and Minnesota.  Maine, with 91% of the vote counted, is still to close to call.  And while he didn’t win in the West, with Colorado decided for Sanders, and California likely to do the same:  he did well enough in those states to stay close to the total number of delegates that Senator Sanders earned.  

In short, Joe Biden won Super Tuesday.  He will likely have the delegate lead when all of the counting is done (which will be a while, California mail-in ballots aren’t due into the boards of elections until Friday).  And Biden did all of this, without a campaign staff on the ground in most of those states, and without a television ad anywhere.  

When it’s all said and done, if Joe Biden earns the nomination, Congressman Jim Clyburn of South Carolina is the reason.  His heartfelt endorsement of Biden the Wednesday before the South Carolina primary changed the entire track of Biden’s campaign.  The former Vice President’s overwhelming South Carolina victory, based largely on his strength in the black communities, altered the national perception.  When Clyburn said, “Joe knows us,” he anchored Biden support.  It carried over to the rest of the South, and obviously much of the rest of the nation.

Slogging it Out

Now we are looking at slogging it out, primary by primary, throughout March, April and May.  Biden’s lead will certainly not be insurmountable, and the dedication of Senator Sanders and his followers is legendary.  If there’s a way to make hard work pay off in votes, the Sanders campaign will find it.  

But the calendar will not be kind to Bernie.  Next Tuesday’s contests: in Idaho, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, North Dakota and Washington leave only two states where Sanders has a solid chance of success.  But in Michigan the latest polling shows Biden up by 6%, and Washington polling is pre-South Carolina. Even then Sanders may have to struggle.  And the St. Patrick’s Day contests in Alaska, Florida, Illinois, and Ohio the next week are even more likely to be “Biden Country”. 

The end of March may find Biden with a seemingly insurmountable lead, but both candidates will certainly fight it out to the bitter end.  The last six primaries: South Dakota, District of Columbia, Montana, New Jersey, and New Mexico; take place on June 2. 

Staying In

Elizabeth Warren and Mike Bloomberg are faced with a serious question:  do they continue in the campaign or not.  Warren has years of work invested in her quest for the nomination, and heartfelt views and concerns about America.  If she stays in, she will be, rightly or wrongly, constantly blamed for cutting into Bernie Sander’s delegate count.  Her only path forward to the nomination is as a compromise candidate in a brokered convention at Milwaukee in July, an outcome that is looking less likely then it did twenty-four hours ago.

And Mike Bloomberg, well, as the Beatles sang, “Money don’t buy me love”.  Divide the $500 million spent into the number of votes he earned on Super Tuesday – about $300 per vote.  Bloomberg is a “data” guy; I expect he will soon decide that his presence as a candidate is no longer viable.  It wouldn’t surprise me though, if we went through another week or so before he does. Cutting your losses at half-a-billion dollars has got to be tough to do.

The conventional wisdom suggests Warren votes go to Bernie, and Bloomberg votes go to Joe.  I’m not sure that’s completely true, I think a lot of Warren supporters are backing a strong woman for President.  I’m not sure what direction they take when that is no longer an option.  But I do think Bloomberg voters either go to Biden, or don’t vote at all.

Looking for the Revolution

Bernie Sanders has promised that a revolution of young and disaffected voters will rise-up to support his candidacy.  But it hasn’t happened yet.  The huge turnouts in many of the Super Tuesday states weren’t Bernie-backers; they were black folks and white suburban women.  They didn’t show up to vote for Bernie, they came for Joe.  And that encourages more moderate Democrats to support Biden. 

That is because, while Sanders preaches Democratic-Socialism, what he promises is a whole new voting block to defeat Donald Trump.  That promised up swelling of Sanders supporters didn’t show when he needed them on Super Tuesday.  If he can’t count on them in the primaries, then it raises huge concerns about defeating Trump in the general election.  

Biden needs to organize.  The momentum of South Carolina and Super Tuesday will only carry him so far:  he requires staff on the ground, and ads on social media and television.  The money will roll in, but “staffing up” is harder to do.  Amy Klobuchar and Pete Buttigieg can help, but if Bloomberg does decide to withdraw, there is an entire national campaign on site and ready to go.  

But historically, regardless of the outcome in Milwaukee, Biden’s victories on Super Tuesday will go down in American history, beside Harry Truman’s “Dewey Wins” Presidential victory of 1948 and John McCain’s 2008 South Carolina turn around.  To go from a campaign on life-support after Nevada, to a clear shot at the nomination today, is more than remarkable.

Democrats, as Tom Perez said, need to “…fall in love, then fall in line”.  After Milwaukee, all of our eyes need to be on a single prize, removing Donald Trump from the Presidency, and saving our nation.  Bernie or Joe, we need to be one party with one mission.

So I grew up in the Boys Scouts.  Sure I went to church, and had great parents, but a big part of my “moral” foundation seemed to be linked to the tenets of Scouting.  Maybe all of the other influences: my parents, my school and church; got summed up by the clear rules of the Scout Oath, Law, Slogan and Motto.

Scouting made it simple:  I was supposed to be trustworthy, loyal, helpful, friendly, courteous, kind, obedient, cheerful, thrifty, brave, clean and reverent. As a Scout, I was “prepared” and I really did try to “do a good turn daily”.  I really worked at  “doing my duty to God and my country”.   I even tried to be “physically strong, mentally awake, and morally straight,” whatever that last part meant.  

All Scouts Are Green

The Scout rules I grew up with meant that race didn’t matter, nor social standing.  We were all “green” (it was before the uniform went khaki). Doing my duty to my country meant accepting others freedom to have any religion or no religion at all.  It meant equality of citizens, and helping those who were less fortunate.  It might even mean protesting against an unjust war, but it would also have meant going to that war if required. 

Looking back, I’m sure all of my adult leaders were Republicans.  They were mostly business executives, men who had great experiences as Scouts themselves, and wanted to pass them on.  I lived in Cincinnati, and my Scoutmasters were both Proctor and Gamble men.  I didn’t know it at the time, but one, Clayton Warman, led men through the Battle of the Bulge in World War II.  Another, Tom Morgan, a P&G Engineer, flew Bombers for the Air Force in the 1950’s.  They were solid men, good leaders, teachers and role models.

Those leaders helped me earn Eagle Scout.  But it was after that, when my “advancement” in Scouts was basically over, that they let me have the experiences of leadership and teaching that lead me to my career in education.  I became a teacher and a coach, but Scouting is where I had my apprenticeship that led me to the field.

Applying the Rules

I guess those men didn’t realize they were helping me become a Democrat.  I know Scouting has never been considered a “liberal” organization, but it seemed like a logical outgrowth of the doctrines.  Even as a Scout, I struggled with Scouting’s demand of religious faith.  And later, as an adult, I applauded the acceptance of gay Scouts, and later, gay adult leaders. 

And Of course I think no one should be denied medical care because they can’t afford it.  As a Scout we were taught to aid someone in trouble.  I didn’t think about liability, or race, age, or gender, when I raced to help a child who was traumatically injured.  My training kicked in.  I was prepared.

Of course we should take care of those less fortunate, helping them to improve their lives.  My “Eagle Project” was repainting a group home for the mentally handicapped. It helped them, and it helped us Scouts as well. 

 And of course everyone is equal.  When you were a Scout, you were measured by your effort and your willingness to carry your share of the load, sometimes literally when we were backpacking.  Your race, creed, religion made no difference.

And that’s why I get confused today, when we don’t recognize that every citizen should have an equal say in our government.  We cling to bias and unfair political traditions, from the Electoral College, to Gerrymander districts, to restrictive voting processes.  All of these are designed to make some “more equal” than others, definitely not in line with the “Boy Scout way”.   

Earning Your Way

Sure Boy Scouts was “capitalistic”.  You earned you way up the chain of rank, from Tenderfoot to Eagle.  “Time-served” didn’t get you much in the way of advancement, you had to “show what you know” each step of the way.  But our troop practiced democracy:  we elected our youth leaders from the Patrol to the Troop level.   We also gave boys leadership opportunities even when they weren’t elected.  Everyone at some point got the chance to lead, sometimes literally with a map and a compass.  And we all followed, even if it meant that our five-mile hike was going to take ten.

I know the Scouts are in trouble.  Like Little League, Church groups, and my profession, some adults used it as cover to abuse children.  It’s absolutely right that our era today is looking for justice for the victims, and the organizations do bare responsibility for enabling those actions.  But a lot of good came from them too.  That shouldn’t be forgotten in the turmoil.

Boy Scouts has become Scouting USA.  Boys and Girls are now in Troops together.  Just like America, Scouting had to grow, to be more than what it was in its “heyday” in the 1960’s.  And Scouting is taking responsibility for what it did “wrong” in those days as well.  The National Council is seeking bankruptcy protection so it might survive the lawsuits it’s facing.

But the standards that the Scouts demand are still valid.  The foundations they established are still sound, regardless of the failings of the organization.  Just like the United States, they are struggling to be “more perfect” in a dynamically changing society.  Let’s hope they can follow their own motto and  “Be Prepared”.

Fall in Love

At the end of October, four months that feel like four years ago, I wrote an essay called Fall in Love. I examined the various Democratic candidates for President of the United States, and the “theory” of Tom Perez, Chairman of the Democratic Party.  Perez said, “I hope you fall in love with multiple people, and then fall in line when we get the nominee” (NBC).

In that essay, I “fell in love” with Pete Buttigieg.  He articulated an advanced America, one that was more than just an end of Trump or an extending of Obama.  Mayor Pete explained his vision of “Day One” after the Trump reign is over.  I thought he did it better than any other candidate, and I endorsed him.

Somewhere in the middle, perhaps during the “long ago” impeachment crisis, Pete seemed to get a little stale.  Like many of the candidates, it was tough for him to find something new.  He wasn’t the only one:  Bernie seemed to be stuck on the same lines, and Elizabeth Warren’s plans were wearying.  But recently Pete found new life, not just in winning Iowa and finishing a close second in New Hampshire, but in a clear understanding of what a Sanders/Trump choice might mean to our country.

“Berning” Down

Pete warned us that “burning down the party” as he thinks Sanders would, might not be the answer to beating Trump.  He offered a “middle path” not only between Democrat Socialism and mainstream Progressives, but also from the Biden/Bernie/Bloomberg/Boomer generation to his own Millennials.  Buttigieg represents the future, and he was calling on Democrats to join him there.

South Carolina’s results made it clear to the Buttigieg “brain trust” that there was no path forward to this nomination.  Tom Steyer, by the way, found the same thing.  Almost $200 million didn’t “buy him love” from Democratic voters.   The Palmetto State and Congressman Jim Clyburn gave Joe Biden’s candidacy new life with a resounding victory.  

Clear a Path

So Mayor Pete withdrew from the election last night.  He did it not only because it was reality, but also because it was the right thing to do.  Pete spent a month warning that a Sanders’ candidacy was dangerous, now he found his own candidacy would further Sanders’ efforts.  So Pete stepped out of the way, allowing more moderate voters to consolidate around another candidate, probably Vice President Biden.  And he did it before Tuesday’s massive primary vote in seventeen states.

I suspect Senator Klobuchar will do the same, after Tuesday and her home state of Minnesota’s primary.  I’m not so sure what Senator Warren will do after her home Massachusetts results; she still is waiting for Sanders’ voters to trend to her side.  Perhaps Warren sees herself as “Sanders lite,” a more progressive candidate without Bernie’s socialist baggage.  

And we don’t know what impact $500 million of Mike Bloomberg’s money will have on Tuesday, though Steyer’s experience might be forewarning.  

Polling indicates that Bernie Sanders will be a big winner on Tuesday, particularly in California with its “mother-lode” of convention delegates.  Warren isn’t cutting into his vote so far, and more moderate Democrats will be split between Biden and Bloomberg.  But Wednesday morning will tell us where the Democratic Party stands for the next four months. We are either on the way to a Sanders nomination, or we are in for a grueling knockdown fight between Sanders and the moderates, probably Biden not Bloomberg.

The Future 

But one thing is for sure.  Pete Buttigieg showed not only a tremendous amount of political “grace” in getting off the field, but also a tremendous amount of political acumen.  He knows that the future of the Party is his.  Whatever the outcome of Super Tuesday or even the 2020 election, all of the current leaders of both political parties will be gone by 2024.  Sixty may be the new forty, but being in their mid-eighties will stop the candidacies of Biden, Bloomberg, Sanders, and Trump in four years. 

So Pete did the right and the smart thing.  He took his wins and his political capital, and he saved it for a future run.  I suspect he will ultimately endorse another candidate for the nomination, but he will wait to see Tuesday’s results before he does.  Pete will not be President in 2020.  But he is “the future” of the Democratic Party, and he will be back.

In the meantime, my own Ohio Primary is coming up on St. Patrick’s Day.  There’s good reason not to vote early, the candidates are changing so fast that a vote today might be meaningless in three weeks.  I suspect Joe Biden will still be viable, and I anticipate he will have my vote, even though he didn’t win my heart.  As Tom Perez said, it will be time to “fall in line”. 

Note: Joe Biden won South Carolina last night. That definitely changes the primary equation — but Tuesday night will really “tell the tale” of Sanders, Biden, Bloomberg and a possible brokered convention. More on Wednesday.

COVID-19

We don’t know what’s going to happen with the “COVID-19”, commonly (and inaccurately) called CORONAVIRUS. COVID-19 is a type of Coronavirus, one of many, that is now causing illnesses throughout the world.  We don’t know how “bad” it is, though preliminary information indicates a death rate of about 2%.  COVID-19 seems to kill the old, the very young, and the immune-compromised.  That’s unlike SARS of a few years ago or the Spanish Flu of 1918:  those killed the young and healthy first.

We do know that it’s a virus that can be transmitted through the air in the form of droplets, and through contact.  And we know it’s here in the United States, both in the form of those who unfortunately were in Asia when it broke out, and now, those getting it through what is wonderfully called “community transmission”.  That phrase really means:  we don’t know how the Hell they got it, it simply was “out there” in the community.

Not the Flu

It’s going to be a “thing” for a while.  Likely, folks will get sick, and if the numbers hold true, 98% of them will get better.  That’s compared to the “regular” flu, where the fatality rate is .05%.  In clearer terms, if 10000 people get the flu, five will likely die.  If 10000 people get Covid-19, two hundred will die.  That’s a big difference.

We are being told that wearing a mask won’t stop Covid-19.  So we are supposed to wash our hands, not touch our face, and make sure that if we get sick, we don’t go out, we self-quarantine.  All of which seems to be pretty lame answers for what should be a national emergency.

Deep State Rescue

The present Administration in Washington has done everything it can to denigrate the “deep-state:” those government workers who in various ways make our country run.  We’ve been told that the scientists who predict global climate change are wrong, “bought out by the extreme left,” and that the intelligence agencies are out to get the President.  The Trump Administration instead offers us nonexistent “clean coal” and takes away our flavored Vape pens.  Facts have been a casualty of this White House since the very beginning, political and scientific.

On Fox News, commentator Laura Ingraham offers us this calming advice:

“Instead of giving in to panic and partisanship perhaps we should thank the good Lord that we live in the most well equipped country in the world to weather these challenges and overcome them.”

The problem is, the United States may not be as equipped as we have been. Offices sit vacant in the National Institute of Health, the White House, and the Department of Homeland Security. We’re not sure that this Administration has he personnel to “weather these challenges”.

Political Medicine

There have been medical crises in the past.  Just recently the Obama Administration faced the Ebola virus, a disease with a 90% fatality rate.  Quickly and quietly, they kept Ebola out of the general US population.  They brought US citizens exposed to the virus back home and treated them.  They worked with the rest of the world to find a way to stop it, with a “cure” that drops the fatality rate to 34%.  And they found a vaccine, a way to prevent Ebola.

That was a huge “success” of both the Obama Administration and the world, but most importantly, for science.

There have been failures as well.  When HIV first arrived in the United States, it was a disease soon wrapped in politics. Because it first afflicted the gay community, spending money and resources on research became “a thing” for the Reagan Administration.  AIDS was controversial:  it wasn’t until the virus got into the general population’s blood supply and began to impact all Americans, including the deaths of tennis star Arthur Ashe and hemophiliac Ryan White, that the disease was “normalized”.  

It took six years to develop the first vaccine.  By 1996 23 million people had the disease worldwide.  By then scientists had developed treatments that allowed people to live for longer periods of time.  Today there are over a million Americans living with HIV.  But more than 700,000 died before the disease was controlled.

The Good Guys

So what is COVID-19 going to be, Ebola or HIV?

The answer is neither:   COVID-19 is not nearly as deadly as either of those.  And, as Ms. Ingraham said, we are the nation “best equipped” to deal with this national health issue.  The problem the Trump Administration has is depending on “the good guys” in the white coats to find solutions.  Mr. Trump has made it a policy to alter facts and ignore science when it suits his story. He has already done so with COVID-19.  “It will miraculously disappear in the summer,” he said, and if we “…don’t touch handrails” we may be all right.

And noted anti-science guy, Vice President Mike Pence, is now in charge.

So now we are depending on the Vice President and the President to let science “loose” on COVID-19, and get out of the way.  We are depending on them to give us the facts so we can take appropriate actions to protect our families and ourselves without unnecessarily barricading our houses with towels under the doors.  

The White House needs to get out of the way, and let the “white coats” do their thing.  They need to let “the good guys” of science solve the problem.  We need to hope that politics can be set aside, something that the President has so far been unable to do. Don’t hold your breath, though that is one short term preventative measure – really short term.