No one else was in the room where it happened, the room where it happened, the room where it happened. No one really knows how the game is played, the art of the trade, how the sausage gets made. We just assume that it happens. But no one else is in the room where it happens.
Lyrics from “In the Room Where it Happened” from Hamilton – The Musical
Two Trillion
Two trillion dollars: it was only thirty-four years ago that $2 trillion was the total amount the US government debt (today, the amount is approaching $23 trillion). Today the US Senate is debating corona-virus aid legislation that will add two trillion dollars to the US economy, and to the debt of the United States.
Or to look at it another way, the total budget for the US government in 2019 was $4.45 trillion. This week, they plan to spend almost half of that again.
So it’s a lot of money. Republicans and Democrats don’t agree on much, but at least that’s one thing they all acknowledge. When the government spends that much money, all at one time, we shouldn’t be surprised that all of the ideas, principles, dreams and bêtes noire of both parties comes out, in spades. And they’re doing it under extreme pressure, as the country faces an existential crisis as large as World War II and the Great Depression combined.
Watching the Process
And the rest of America, many “sheltering in place” in their homes, has little else to do but watch. There’s nothing that will ruin the taste of sausage more, then to watch how it is made. But we’re seeing it, because we’re all “in the room where it happened”.
I use Facebook to see what the “other side” is saying. Someone somewhere, maybe Brad Parscale in the Trump Campaign, maybe a Russian intelligence agent in St. Petersburg, maybe Mr. Trump’s 400-pound man in his parents’ basement, makes meme after meme attacking Democrats.
- The Democrats are keeping you from getting paid (not true)
- They are trying to pay for abortions (some elements of truth)
- They are pushing the Green New Deal (true for solar energy tax incentives)
- 47 Democrats in the House don’t care about you (it’s 47 in the Senate not the House)
- Drunk Nancy Pelosi is holding up help for you (it’s the Senate, not the House again – and she’s not drunk).
The Democratic side is pushing their view, but not quite with the same Facebook presence. Dems are demanding that aid to big corporations have “strings attached” so that the stock buybacks and management salary expansions of 2009 doesn’t happen again. And Democrats are demanding more power for labor unions, longer extensions of unemployment compensation, and that the “cash handout” to low income Americans not get smaller the less money they make (that was in the original proposal).
Under Pressure
You can feel the pressure – and it really is all about two issues. The first is direct payments. Americans heard that if you make less than $75000 ($150000 for a couple) the Government will give you a $1200 check, plus $500 per child. If you make more than $99000 it’s none (rumor is that will be based on your 2018 tax return).
While the Labor Department has moved to hide unemployment figures, telling states they cannot release the number of unemployment applications filed, it’s clear that there are at least ten times more people unemployed today than a month ago. The Trump Economy that was his one clear way to win the White House with 3% unemployed is likely to hit 12% or more this month. People need to cash to pay bills, to eat, and the overwhelming number of applications has bogged the system down. If they can’t get unemployment compensation, the check “in the mail” may save them.
So that’s created immense pressure on the Congress to “make the sausage”.
The second area is in what is happening to small business. Big corporations can “bridge” the loss of income as the economy virtually shuts down. The Federal Reserve has cut interest rates to zero creating money for the taking. But for small businesses, the corner restaurant and bar, the local jewelry store, and the second hand furniture store; there’s not enough equity for a normal loan. Small business needs help to survive, to pay the rent, and to protect the employees they still have (though many have already been laid off).
The Small Business Administration can offer loans that ultimately will be forgiven to allow those businesses to survive. That’s in the “bill” and those business owners know it, need it, and want to have it NOW.
Close Your Eyes and Eat
Americans are pressing for action, and many are watching the Congress play-by-play.
But the sausage isn’t “made” until the final votes are taken. This is just the Senate bill; the House of Representatives will still want to have their say as well. And then both House and Senate will need to vote on a final bill again.
And the President will need to sign it into law. Since his Treasury Secretary has been the prime negotiator in the Senate, it would make sense that with his sign-off, the President will too. But making sense has not been the hallmark of the Trump Administration.
It won’t be today, but maybe by Monday – and then the sausage might be ready for the tasting. Close your eyes and eat.
Provisions of the Senate Bill
as of 3/24/20 (AM) CBS
- Direct payments of $1,200 to most individuals making up to $75,000, or $2,400 for couples making up to $150,000. The amount decreases for individuals with incomes above $75,000, and payments cut off for those above $99,000.
- Expanded unemployment benefits that boost the maximum benefit by $600 per week and provides laid-off workers their full pay for four months
- $367 billion in loans for small businesses
- $150 billion for state and local governments
- $130 billion for hospitals
- $500 billion in loans for larger industries, including airlines
- Creation of an oversight board and inspector general to oversee loans to large companies
- Measure prohibiting companies owned by President Trump and his family from receiving federal relief
