Dow Jones
The Dow Jones finished at 29398 on Friday, February 14th. It closed on Monday, March 23rd at 18591. That’s a loss of 37% of the entire market value in a little over a month. In very simple terms, if you had $10000 in the market on Valentine’s Day, it’s probably worth about $6300 today (DJI).
Donald Trump has based the success of his Presidency on the health of the economy. The thermometer he uses to determine that is the Dow Jones Industrial Average of the New York Stock Exchange. In his rallies he’s flat out said it: “you don’t have a choice, you have to vote for me, because your 401(k)’s down the tubes, everything’s gonna be down the tubes” (The Hill).
He wasn’t ready for the corona-virus crisis shutting down the American economy. He isn’t ready for the sacrifices the crisis is demanding of him, and of the nation. And he doesn’t know how to win the Presidency without “winning” the Dow Jones. He can’t win if your 401(k) is already “down the tubes”.
The Epidemic
The hard facts of the corona-virus epidemic are that 40% of Americans will get the virus. That is close to 130 million people. 80% or more, 102 million people, will get it and recover without a lot of problems. Americans don’t need to “socially distance” for them. To parrot the current Facebook disinformation campaign, for them, it’s just like “the flu”. The crisis is in the 20% who will get so sick they will need hospitalization. If those 26 million people hit hospitals all near the same time, there is no possible way our healthcare system can care for them.
The fatality rate of corona-virus seems to be somewhere under 4%. Even if only one percent of Americans that get the disease die, that means 1.3 million people. But if they all arrive at the hospital at the same time, then the fatality rate will be much higher. Many, many more will die. They will die for the worst reasons: from lack of equipment, lack of care, and lack of medications. They will die unnecessarily.
To protect those millions, the scientists have told Americans to stop interacting with each other. If we stay apart, we can slow the spread of the virus. The number of people who will contract corona-virus may not change, but it will happen over a much longer period of time. By doing this, the surge of patients in hospitals will be lower. For those who get the sickest, they will have the best chance of getting care and surviving. The scientists call it “social distancing” in order to “flatten the curve”.
Waiting for the Curve
But flattening the curve means extending the time we are socially distant. That means that the economy of the United States will need to stay “closed” for a longer period. It means that the Donald Trump’s chosen measure of political health, the Dow Jones, will stay bad. It threatens his reelection. And he can’t stand it.
Monday, in his daily news brief/political rant, President Trump voiced his impatience:
“We cannot let the cure be worse that the problem itself. At the end of the 15 day period, we will make a decision as to which way we want to go!” (Fox).
He can hold on for fifteen days, but after that, he wants the economy to start up again. Regardless of the scientific evidence that shows that the nation may need to stay “closed” longer, maybe even months, President Trump wants to get “back to normal”. That’s a real choice: the Dow Jones can go up right along with the death rate. It’s a tradeoff, politics for bodies.
The Sacrifice
Trump’s far right supporters are chiming in, pressing the President to let this happen. Monday night, Texas Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick spoke on the house organ, Fox News:
“Tucker, no one reached out to me and said, ‘As a senior citizen, are you willing to take a chance on your survival in exchange for keeping the America that all America loves for your children and grandchildren?’ And if that’s the exchange, I’m all in,” Patrick said, later adding, “My message is, let’s get back to work. Let’s get back to living. Let’s be smart about it, and those of us who are 70-plus, we’ll take care of ourselves”(AOL).
Patrick is volunteering to risk his life, and millions of others, to hurry things along. That’ll fix the Dow Jones, and maybe, get Trump re-elected President again with just a few more (million) deaths along the way.
It’s not a joke, and it’s not an extremist view. This is the advice that the President is hearing from his internal economic advisors, and it fits right in with what he wants to do, his infamous “gut”.
Is this America now? Let’s throw a few million people under the bus, so we get the Dow Jones back up again, and re-elect Trump.
Let’s hope not.
