Stop the Surge
It took weeks, but the public health authorities finally gave a clear explanation for their actions. The question many Americans were asking was that if everyone would ultimately be exposed to the corona-virus, what was the point of “social distancing”. Why should we go to all the trouble of changing our lifestyles, cancelling our events, and even staying in our homes?
It isn’t about “avoiding” the virus. It’s about “stopping the surge”.
Once the United States lost the opportunity to “contain” the virus, the only thing left to do was to “mitigate” the damage. The damage is in the numbers. Public health experts suggest as many as twenty to forty percent of Americans will get the corona-virus. That’s somewhere between 70 to 130 million people. And, judging on the Chinese and Italian outbreaks, 80% of those will have mild to moderate symptoms, not requiring hospitalization. They’ll get sick for a week or so, and get better.
Flatten the Curve
So it comes down to the twenty percent, those who need hospitals, intensive care, and even mechanical vents, breathing machines. Twenty percent of 70 million is 14 million people. The United States has somewhere around 800,000 hospital beds, and around 70,000 intensive care units. If millions of people need intensive care all at one time, there is simply nowhere for them to go. In Italy, doctors have been forced to triage patients, determining who gets care based on who has the best chance of survival. People are dying because there aren’t hospital rooms for them.
But if public health officials can convince Americans to “spread out,” avoiding mass events where the virus will quickly spread from person to person, then perhaps we can avoid that surge of patients needing care. It’s not that they won’t ultimately need to be hospitalized, it’s that they will hit the hospitals over a longer period of time. They can go in, be treated, and be released before the next patient arrives. Over time, they all can be treated, as long as they don’t all show up at one time. Many more will survive; hospitals will avoid determining who will live and who will die.
So if we can “flatten the curve” we can spread the number of cases over time. Flattening the curve spreads patients about, if will allow many more people who are at risk from corona-virus to survive. It makes perfect sense – they just had to tell us!
It would have made sense three weeks ago too, and it would have worked so much better.
Bernie’s Bargain
Wednesday Senator Bernie Sanders spoke out about the results of Tuesday’s primaries. He made it clear that he was going to continue his campaign, and debate Biden Sunday in Phoenix. But Bernie’s speech wasn’t really a challenge to Biden’s success; it was the opening gambit in negotiations with the Democratic convention.
Sanders honorably has spent a lifetime fighting for his beliefs. Universal health care, forgiveness of student loans, and dealing with climate change are his core issues. He’s bringing them to the table at the debate, demanding that Biden respond to his concerns. What Bernie offers is a motivated base, a voting group that Biden absolutely needs to win the election in November.
And Biden can offer Sanders and his supporters reasonable answers, moving to “the left” without leaving his more moderate supporters. So the debate on Sunday is likely to be more friend-to-friend negotiations, rather than a bitter attack that damages both candidates.
If Sanders likes what he hears, and Biden gets the results in Tuesday’s primaries in Ohio, Florida, Illinois and Arizona that he expects, perhaps the Democratic Primary campaign will wrap up in the next week. If not, Sanders will continue. This is his last chance to run for President, and his best chance of getting his views “on the table”. He won’t quit without getting something.
Back to Work
Just a personal note: I’ve gone back to work, temporarily. I’m teaching social studies to sixth, seventh and eighth graders, filling in for a teacher who just had her first child. It’s a real eye-opener: when I left the classroom in 2006 there were still chalkboards and pencil and paper notes. Today there’s a “Smart Board”, every kid has a “Chrome Book” and tests, assignments and projects appear magically in the “In Box”.
Luckily for me, kids are still kids, and history is still history. So if my “Trump World” essays seem to be appearing later in the day, and have odd references to Hindu culture, the Middle Ages, or the Civil War, there is a reason. It’s exciting to be back in the classroom, but it’s not exciting to be back in “five in the morning” world. Thank goodness spring break is only a week away!
