Is It Over?

Another Tuesday

Tuesday’s primary votes are telling a story, a tale that supports Joe Biden’s candidacy.  But it’s not “all about Joe,” it’s more about the choices Democrats are making today.

Just as South Carolina was Biden’s “firewall”, a total win or lose proposition, Michigan was Bernie Sanders last line of defense.  The Biden campaign was on its last legs after abject failure in Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada.  Anything short of overwhelming success in South Carolina, a state where African-Americans make up over half of the Democratic electorate, and the Biden campaign would wither away.  It wouldn’t be Biden’s choice:  the money would dry up, and with it, his candidacy.

South Carolina and Jim Clyburn came through for Biden.  That Saturday success turned the tables on the national electorate, and Super Tuesday led to Biden victories throughout the country.  He took the delegate lead, but more importantly, he came through in the popular vote among African-Americans, suburban women, and older voters.  Biden created his own unique coalition, different from Barack Obama, and from Bernie Sanders as well.

Super Tuesday was important not just because of the success of the new Biden coalition.  It was also marked by the failure of the Sanders “revolution,” the whole new grouping of young new voters who were going to change the fabric of the American electorate.  Bernie counted on them to appear in overwhelming numbers, enough to bring his Social-Democratic dream to the fore in American politics.

No Revolution

But it didn’t happen.  The young supporters didn’t turn out to vote.

So Michigan became his last bastion, the site of a surprise victory over Hillary Clinton in 2016 that re-energized his campaign.  Michigan convinced Sanders to continue his 2016 efforts all the way to the end of the primary season, much to the disgust of the Clinton camp.  

The question to ask about 2016:  were people voting for Bernie Sanders, or were they voting against Hillary Clinton. Clinton had the second highest negatives of any major candidate to run for President (Trump had the highest):  were Michigan voters in 2016 choosing the Social-Democratic philosophy, or were they simply opposing another Clinton for President?  And how much of a role did misogyny play in both the primary and general elections?  Was it just the fact that a woman was running for President that cost her the election?

So when the Sanders campaign went “to the barricades” in Michigan last week, they couldn’t have been absolutely confident.  Yes they had the bulwarks:  college voters from the University of Michigan and Michigan State to Superior State.  Would those students be enough to offset the powerful vote of the black community around Detroit, clearly trending towards Biden?  What would the suburban vote, fresh off the “change” election of 2018, say about Sanders? And how would the Michigan farmers, suffering under the agricultural and immigration policies of the Trump Administration do?

Bad News for Bernie

It’s probably not as much about Bernie, as it is about Donald.  Turnouts are hitting record levels, but it isn’t the “revolution” that’s driving folks to the polls.  And while Joe Biden may be a “good guy” and all, he’s not Barack Obama, with charismatic energy.  Democrats are coming to the polls with a single, burning purpose:  to choose the candidate that can beat Donald Trump.

2016 Democrats weren’t even worried about Donald Trump. They thought, “The GOP would never nominate him”. Or if they were foolish enough to do so; he would never, ever, never have a chance of being elected.  So the 2016 primaries were about the last year’s of the Obama Presidency, and the frustration of McConnell blocking every effort to make positive changes.  Merrick Garland was only the most obvious example, it seemed that every Democratic goal was stopped by, the “Grim Reaper”.

So Democrats in Michigan and other places took the opportunity to challenge the establishment, in the persona of Hillary Clinton.  Bernie was the foil, the tool used to express common Democratic feeling of frustration.  

But we woke up on a Wednesday morning in November to the realization that Donald Trump was President.  Democrats have lived that nightmare ever since.  2020 Presidential calculations have come down to one simple equation:  which candidate has the best chance of ending the Trump Presidency.

Why Joe?

Results show that Democrats aren’t willing to risk the Sanders Revolution for fear that it might fail.  They are willing to take a less than perfect candidate in Biden, who is a weak stand-in for President Obama. He still represents the strength, calm and professionalism of the Obama Administration.  In short, they don’t want a revolution; they want a return to normalcy.

Every single county in Michigan went for Joe Biden Tuesday night.  Even in Washtenaw County, home to the University of Michigan and Eastern Michigan University, Biden edged Sanders out.  And in the northern farm counties, up high in the “mitten”, the farmers voted for Biden as well.

Sanders flew back to Vermont Tuesday night, forced to cancel his Cleveland rally due to corona-virus concerns.  He had nothing to say.

So he will need to make a decision soon.  In 2016 he went all the way to the end of the primaries, forcing Hillary to defend in each state while knowing that she would ultimately need the Sanders’ supporters to win in November.  If he does that again in 2020, will he really chance wounding Biden in the ultimate quest to beat Trump?