Numbers Count
Politics is a matter of numbers. Can you raise enough money? Do you have enough contacts? Have you found enough issues that resonate with the voters? Did you get enough votes?
In 2016 we learned that polling isn’t an exact science. Many felt that the polls mislead the American people, polls that showed Hillary Clinton as the clear winner of the Presidential election up through the day before the vote. And, as Democrats are quick to point out, Hillary technically got the most votes in the election, by almost three million. But that’s not how America chooses its President.
Pollsters would argue that the Trump/Clinton polls were “within the margin of error”. But the fact that every poll showed Clinton winning, and every poll was on the “wrong” end of the error margin certainly led many Americans to doubt their credibility.
So the fact that the most recent polling shows Joe Biden ahead in the Michigan primary (by six percentage points) isn’t something you’d bet the ranch on. We’ve learned that betting the ranch might cost – the ranch.
Two Issues
In Michigan, Senator Sanders is arguing that he is “closer” to the labor voters because he was against NAFTA and the “Bailout of 2009”. Sanders argues that NAFTA sent good Michigan jobs out of the country, without protecting workers here at home. And he argues that we “bailed out” the wealthy Wall Street firms in the Great Recession, but left the common homeowners hanging with underwater mortgages.
He’s not wrong. And to make his next point, Sanders points out that Joe Biden voted for NAFTA, and was the Vice President supporting President Obama with the Wall Street bailout. That’s how Bernie plans to make his point to Michiganders: I backed you, Joe didn’t.
Of course, Biden will come back that Sanders was against the auto industry bailout that saved General Motors and Chrysler. That bailout saved thousands of Michigan jobs, and the single most important industry in the state. So there’s that.
Waterloo
Bernie Sanders is in a difficult situation. After the surprise of “Super Tuesday”, he now is behind in delegates to the Democratic Convention in July. Tomorrow Michigan, Missouri, Mississippi, North Dakota, and Washington will determine their delegates. Judging from “Super Tuesday” results, Biden will likely have an overwhelming victory in Mississippi. Sanders won Michigan in 2016, and did well in Missouri. Whether that was a reaction to the negative imagery of Hillary Clinton, or more about his stand on the issues, will be tested tomorrow. But one thing is clear: Sanders must staunch the bleeding of Super Tuesday. If he doesn’t win somewhere, in particular, if he can’t replicate his Michigan win of 2016, it’s hard to find his path to the nomination.
Michigan may represent his “Waterloo”: win and he’s Wellington, lose and he’s Napoleon.
Pure Michigan
Michigan is highly representative of the American electorate. There is the urban center of Detroit, with a high percentage of black voters. Biden has so far dominated with that voting block. But Sanders has tried to make inroads; Jesse Jackson came in to endorse him last weekend. Whether Jackson will impact with older black voters, an area where Biden runs strong, still has to be seen.
There is the strong labor union vote in Michigan. Union leadership seems to be trending towards Biden, but Sanders hopes his platform appeals to the rank and file. Sanders won strong union support in Nevada despite their leadership; gaining union votes is his key to winning. But perhaps most significantly, there is a strong suburban vote in Michigan, the vote that turned Michigan from Republican to Democratic control in 2018. Sanders must find a way to appeal to suburban voters in Michigan, in order to prove that he can reach them nationwide.
But most importantly, Bernie needs to reach the younger voters, and turn them out to the polls. The core of Sanders appeal is his outreach to Millennials and younger. If they don’t vote overwhelming for him, it’s hard to imagine a Sanders victory.
It Ain’t Over ‘til It’s Over
This Tuesday will NOT mark the end of the Democratic primary campaigns. But Tuesday’s results will tell us whether the Biden “surprise” was a fluke, or a movement. And that will tell us whether Bernie Sanders is destined to be the Democratic Candidate for President, or will have his same result from 2016.
Tuesday will tell that tale.
