Too Soon

It’s far too soon to think about politics.  In fact, in a nation “sheltering in place” with hopes of hiding from the corona-virus, it’s not even “on the table”.  Jobs, kids, family, and those who are at mortal risk from the disease are so much more important than the act of choosing the next President of the United States.  The election is in November: we don’t even know if will we even be allowed out of the house by then.

But make no mistake, politics is “on the table” at the White House.  The President who eschewed daily press contact, allowing the White House Press Room to remain empty and dust covered for over a year, now is on television every day.   He’s trying to read the statistics, telling us all what he’s doing “right”, and attacking the press for questioning his actions.  There’s no more rallies, no more “lock her up”; we now have the daily brief.  

Bully Pulpit

It took the “big four” networks a couple of weeks to realize what was going on.  But last week, when the President spoke for more than an hour and bled into the “Nightly News” timeslot, they decided to break away:  even Fox.   So now you can see the President on the twenty-four hour news channels, CNN, MSNBC, Fox News, PBS, CBS and ABC.  I haven’t checked out the others, but CNN and MSNBC are “fact checking” the President as he goes.  CNN literally does it as he speaks, running chyrons correcting his mistakes.  MSNBC brings in experts after he’s done, to straighten out the facts.

You can’t blame the President for using his “bully pulpit”.  And it’s hard not to watch, even if the President confabulates the facts, he still has Dr. Fauci and the others behind him.  They are telling the truth, both to Mr. Trump and the nation, and we want to know.

Changing Views

The President has made a significant change in his political calculations in the past few weeks.  When the crisis should have begun, back in December and January, Mr. Trump led the way in denying there was a concern.  Unlike countries like South Korea, Taiwan and Sweden, the United States didn’t engage in any kind of widespread testing for the virus.  Since we didn’t test, we couldn’t follow the traditional public health model of “contact tracing”, following the trail of illness back to the original source, and isolating the cases.

Did that happen because the Centers for Disease Control had a test that didn’t work?  Or was it because the United States refused the World Health Organization test?  We do know that Mr. Trump didn’t want to hear “numbers”.  In fact, he kept a cruise ship out in the Pacific for days, because if it landed, “his numbers” would go up.   There was a lot of political pressure on the health agencies NOT to test – in fact there still is today.  We still don’t know the extent of national exposure; doctors estimate that infection rates are at least ten times more than we acknowledge.

Someone Else’s Problem

So we didn’t test, and we couldn’t contain.  The fallback medical position is to “mitigate” the damage, to slow down the infection rate so that hospitals can have a chance to handle the surge.  That’s why we’re all “sheltering in place” now.  The essence of “fault” for that should be a major issue in the fall election campaign.

And when the crisis grew, the President seemed to “pass the buck” to the states.  It was the Governors and the Mayors that led the way in taking action against the virus, notably Mike DeWine of Ohio and Andrew Cuomo of New York.  And many other Governors have stood up and made the hard decisions for their states.  The problem:  the President’s reticence to take control has allowed a “free market” approach to apportioning health care items.  Masks, gloves, gowns, and most importantly, respirators for the health care workers, and ventilators for the victims:  all are out there for the highest bidder.

Governors are asking the President to take control of the supply process.  They are asking him to use the power of the Federal government to control interstate commerce, and ration healthcare items.  So far, Mr. Trump has chosen not to take action.

And some Governors are avoiding taking charge.  They are following the President’s lead in Florida, Missouri, and Texas; trying to avoid the problem by letting the local counties deal with a virus that doesn’t recognize political boundaries.  It seems that there are disasters looming in those states, in because of them, for our entire nation.

The New Slogan

And now the President has found a new, grisly campaign point.  “It could have been millions of dead, instead it’ll be a hundred thousand or so,” is his new slogan.  “ I saved lives”.  

That’s the image he’s building with his daily “briefings”.  And that’s the campaign slogan for 2020 – Trump Saved Lives.  

It’s too soon, too soon for campaigns.  But when we emerge from our homes to a new world of corona-virus contagion, we need to ask the question:  If the President had acted at once, how many lives could have been saved?

Another Press Rant

Watching President Trump’s daily press conference has become the huge point of frustration in my life. He ignores the facts and the science in order to pursue his own political agenda. It will cost human lives.  It’s hard to give him “credit” for the “good” he’s done, for every “good” there’s so much more that turns out bad.  Friday what stood out to me was his open narcissism. His message:  I’ll help Governors who are grateful for MY help, as if the American people aren’t the ones paying for it.

He’s only the President of those who are grateful to him, only willing to help those Americans who live in “Red States”. The pinpoint enforcement of the Defense Production Act against General Motors is simple payback for closing Lordstown, not a needed action.  It’s vindictive. His attack on the Democratic Governor of Michigan, Gretchen Whitmer (who commits two sins, a Democrat and a woman) is ugly and personal. Mr. Trump has abrogated his role as President of all of the United States.  You see it in his press briefing, and you read it in his twitter feed.

From a political standpoint, I was shocked that Mr. Trump’s approval rating reached the highest point of his Presidency, 50%.  Nate Silver, pollster of “538” and the one guy who got the 2016 election right, analyzed the numbers.  Silver’s view is that Americans are looking for a unifying figure in this corona-virus crisis, and “want” to support the President.  That doesn’t mean they’ll vote for him; in Biden versus Trump polling, Biden is still winning by 7% or more.

I was looking back at the Presidential terms I’ve lived through, trying to find which Presidents I’ve respected and admired, and why.  I left off on Jimmy Carter.  Here’s part two of Respect and Admiration.

Reagan

We elected an actor and cowboy as President in 1980.  It was all right that California picked him as their Republican Governor (boy, have times changed) after all, they’re California.  But the entire nation selected him over a hamstrung Jimmy Carter, trapped in the White House by the Iran hostages.

When “progressive” Democrats say today that we have to nominate an extreme progressive rather than a moderate, they point to the 1980 election.  Jimmy Carter was a moderate. Reagan, a smoothed over Hollywood version of Barry Goldwater, confronted him, and Carter was crushed.  Progressives claim we need to do the same in 2020.

Changing the Course

Reagan brought his extreme brand of conservatism to the White House, trying to alter the steady course of American government since Franklin Roosevelt.  In his first years, he crushed unions by destroying the Air Traffic Controllers, he “freed” education from Federal control by cutting billions of education dollars, and he followed the 1920’s Republican philosophy:  what’s good for business is good for America.

And, in a foreshadowing of today’s crisis, when AIDS appeared in the gay community, he ignored it.  It took the death of hundreds of thousands, including children and “straight” celebrities, for the Reagan administration to begin to act.  That delay allowed the disease to infiltrate the US population:  ultimately 700000 Americans died.  All because being “gay” was against the Reagan political view.

But Reagan was able to “act” the part of President, perhaps better than any.  When the space shuttle Challenger exploded on launch, it was Reagan who spoke the words written by Peggy Noonan, quoting the World War I poem:  “…they reached out, and touched the face of God”.  And Reagan traded dollars for blood, driving the Soviet Union into bankruptcy with the Cold War arms competition.  In the end, the US debt quadrupled, but we never had the nuclear war that our generation expected.  You have to respect that.

Bush One

Reagan was Hollywood’s President:  Bush was a traditional Republican.  He acted like one, running the country like an Eisenhower or a Nixon (without the war and the corruption).  Perhaps he was just in the right time, the Cold War was over, but Bush managed the ensuing unrest that came after.  He was a President with a “light” touch.

He came to the rescue of Kuwait, and the world’s oil resources, with the Persian Gulf War.  It was a war of American precision, carefully orchestrated with a huge alliance of nations in support.  And it was a “win” against a far outmatched opponent, the Iraq of Saddam Hussein.  We got ahead, and we quit, deciding not to destabilize the region by removing Hussein from power.  It was a lesson a son should have learned.

Bill Clinton

In a world where the President didn’t seem quite as important, Bill Clinton gained the Presidency with 43% of the popular vote in 1992.  Clinton was a moderate, so much so, that he seemed to be Republican-lite.  The old liberals of the Democratic Party swallowed hard to accept another Southern Governor as President, but, like Eisenhower, Clinton seemed to be a candidate less likely to “rock the boat”.  That was particularly apparent when compared to the third competitor in the field, Ross Perot, who promised short-term economic pain and suffering to wipe out the national debt.

Clinton governed from the middle, making him a very popular guy.  When Bob Dole ran as the Republican in 1996, Clinton took the broad political spectrum.  Dole was only able to win over the right.  So eight years of Clinton was eight years of moderation, with a healthy dose of personal irresponsibility.  It was Bill Clinton that created the division between “personal” and “professional” conduct that paved the path for Donald Trump’s election despite immorality.  Americans were getting what they wanted from the Clinton Presidency, so what if Bill was getting “something else” in the Oval Office.

But there was a price to pay for the Clinton impeachment.  The voters couldn’t vote against Clinton in 2000, but they could vote against Al Gore in protest.  The price America paid was George W Bush.

George W

So what happens when a nice guy, a guy you’d have a beer with at the local bar, becomes the President of the United States.  It all depends on the people around him, and George W Bush specifically rejected the advisors that carefully steered his father’s Presidency.  Instead, he became the “front-man” for Vice President Dick Cheney and the neo-cons, Americans who practiced a new version of manifest destiny.  Cheney believed the US had power and should control the world economy.  If it took military might to do it, so be it.

You have to respect Bush’s leadership.  His actions after the attack on 9-11 helped unify the nation.  Even this liberal Democrat was ready to do whatever needed to be done, when President Bush put his arm around the firefighters at Ground Zero and said: “I can hear you! I can hear you! The rest of the world hears you! And the people — and the people who knocked these buildings down will hear all of us soon!”

But more importantly, later that week the President went into a mosque and spoke of his admiration for Islam.  He let Americans know that we were at war with terrorists, not with a religion.

But Cheney subverted the righteous anger of 9-11 to pursue his economic agenda, and manipulated the intelligence data to put the United States at war in Iraq.  The fall of Saddam Hussein was hailed as a victory, but it really “took the cork out of the bottle” of the Middle East, leading to the rise of Iranian power and the disorder we see today.

Obama

When the history is written, Barack Obama will be much more than just the first Black President.  He will be seen as the President who, against his will, presiding over the segmenting of America.  He isn’t the first President to come in with an opposition party, but he may be the first to have an opposition party who believed that their ONLY goal was to defeat him.  For the Republican leadership, what was good for America was a poor second choice.

Whether it was ideology, racism, or money, or a combination of all, it was difficult for President Obama to govern.  He still did it with grace and honor.  Not since Kennedy was there a President who could lift Americans so high with his words. But many refused to listen, as money and media drove wedge after wedge into our minds.  Barack Obama was the President who passed the Affordable Care Act and killed Osama bin Laden, but Roger Ailes ran Fox News with a free hand and an unlimited bank account from Rupert Murdock.  That may be the most significant event of the Obama Presidency.

Today

It certainly brought us to today.

I long for the language of Kennedy and Obama, or even Reagan.   Long for the leadership of Eisenhower or Johnson, or even Nixon.  I hope for the moral rightness of Carter, or Ford, or George HW Bush.   Even wish for the “good times” of Bill Clinton’s tenure.  

In this existential crisis caused by our current President’s malfeasance, a crisis that will unnecessarily cost thousands, perhaps millions of American lives, none of that is possible.  But, we are Americans, and we will struggle through.  What remains of the  “hated Deep State” in our government will try to do what’s right, even though the Administration will fight to do what’s wrong. 

In our current crisis, we talk a lot about lines and arcs, flattening the curve to protect our most vulnerable.  And in our national story, Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. used arcs to describe our history.  He said, “The arc of the moral universe is long, but it bends towards justice”.

I still believe in American exceptionalism and American justice. America has the ability to rise above any crisis, even one led by our own President.  We will survive, and we will learn from our mistakes.  It is not only what we must do.  

 It is all that we can do.

Respect and Admiration 

(This is an essay where I found too much to say – so this is part one)

Last Night

I watched the President’s press briefing last night, and found myself angry and frustrated.  In the most basic terms, I feel like the President is willing to let Americans die so he can get the “economy” going again.  To me, those words are code for his desire to be re-elected, with his popularity tied so closely to the Dow Jones Industrial Average.  It’s not about what’s good for America; it’s about what good for Trump 2020.

I know my friends who support the President will call this out.  They will say I’m coming from a “place” of hate; that I can’t accept that maybe Mr. Trump is right, and all of those scientists are wrong.  Or worse, they will try to convince me that the “damage”, the numbers of deaths opening up the economy would create, is worth it.  As Dan Patrick, the Lieutenant Governor of Texas said, speaking for all those at-risk seniors, “…Let’s be smart about it, and those of us who are 70-plus, we’ll take care of ourselves”.  

So I need to take a moment, and look back at how I view the twelve Presidents that have served in my lifetime.  Some I know more by history then by actual experience, but for most, I know how I felt then, and what I think about them now.  So for the next two essays, here’s what I think, and what I felt about those men.

Ike

I was born in 1956, so Dwight Eisenhower is only a vague memory for me.  There was a campaign song that my parents’ friends sang about me running in the 1960 Presidential campaign, “…vote, vote, vote for Martin Dahlman, throw old ‘Ikey’ down the sink…” I know now, most of those friends were Democrats.  

And I remember that my Mom didn’t like Eisenhower on a personal level.  During World War II she encountered him entering Allied Headquarters in London.  She was a “spy”, part of the Special Operations Executive (SOE) with the brevet rank of Lieutenant Colonel.  SOE had makeshift uniforms at best, considering most of their time was spent undercover in enemy territory, but Eisenhower decided that Mom’s wasn’t “sufficient”, and commented on it.  I remember my Mom saying she told the Supreme Commander that she wasn’t part of HIS American Army, and ending the conversation.

But looking back at Eisenhower he lived up to his “moderate Republican” label.  He led the American post-war boom, in industry and wealth as well as babies.  He kept America out of nuclear war, controlling his old friends in the Defense Department who wanted to flex their new atomic muscles.  And Ike recognized the danger of the military-industrial complex, driving foreign interventions for economic gains.  So on a whole, he did OK, regardless of his conflicts with Mom.

Let the Word Go Forth

John Kennedy was a young, dynamic leader who offered America new energy and goals.  I was still very young, but I wore my Kennedy button proudly.  Mom was connected to the Kennedy’s too, having had his sister as a roommate in boarding school, but it was the excitement he generated that drew many to his standard.

And looking back at Kennedy, he did uplift Americans, starting with his inaugural address challenging:  “…ask not what your country can do for you, ask what you can do for your country.”  He set standards and goals, and showed strength under fire, getting us through the Cuban missile crisis.  The tragedy of his death is still seared in what was my seven-year-old mind.  The whole afternoon of November 22 is still available, a play-by-play in my memory.

LBJ

Johnson memories are clearer.  From his swearing in on Air Force One, to hearing him speak at the Montgomery County Fairgrounds in Dayton, I saw Johnson as carrying on the goals set by JFK.  Johnson was the Southern politician who championed civil rights, and began the “War on Poverty” to change America.  And he defeated Barry Goldwater in 1964, a man who seemed willing to go to war without provocation.

But Johnson too was at war, and I entered adolescence submerged in Vietnam.  By 1968 I came to support those who were against the war, and therefore against the President.  The core of my political interests and values were established watching the 1968 Democratic Convention in Chicago, the disastrous police generated riots in the streets and parks.  I was trapped on a couch in front of the TV, a newly broken arm propped up on a box, and horrified that the leaders I supported were being shut up and shut down by brute political and police force.

What Are We Fighting For

Nixon won the election.  They announced it over the Van Buren Junior High public address system.  I put my head on the desk, as my classmates whooped and clapped.  And while Nixon, like Eisenhower, was a moderate Republican, even putting wage and price controls on the nation; it was Vietnam that defined his Presidency.  His “peace plan” from the 1968 campaign seemed to be “fight the war forever”.  We marched in the streets, and nominated McGovern in 1972 to end the war. McGovern lost.

Watergate subsumed my junior and senior years of high school.  I knew it all, the name of the security guard who found the “taped” door (Frank Wills) and the lawyer who led the “dirty tricks” campaign (Don Segretti).  I wrote Nixon jokes on the chalkboard at school, much to the outrage of my government teacher, Mr. Wagner.   With pride, I served an in-school suspension for my offense.

Nixon was the first President I couldn’t find a way to respect.  He was a liar, in public, and we knew it then.  He lied “to our face” and expected Americans to believe him.  We didn’t, and ultimately the rest of the nation didn’t either.

A Young Politician

Gerald Ford was nowhere near as “dumb” as Nixon made him out to be.  He led the nation from “the long national nightmare,” and while I didn’t agree with his politics, I respected him as a leader.  But I worked hard for his opponent, Jimmy Carter in 1976.  It was my first taste of professional campaigning, and one hundred hours a week wasn’t enough.  I remember walking though Fountain Square in downtown Cincinnati on the morning after “we” won the election, knowing how narrow the outcome was.  Carter won Ohio by 10,000 votes; I could take credit for at least some of them.

I have the utmost respect for Jimmy Carter.  He, like Ford, was a standup man, a leader without the narcissistic flaws of either Nixon or Johnson.  He was a “good” man, but he didn’t know how to navigate the pitfalls of Washington politics.  That kept him from achieving his goals. He was a moderate Democrat in a party shaped by the radicalism of the anti-Vietnam effort.  He got elected, but he didn’t fit in with his own “team”.  

Honorable Man

Off the subject, Jimmy Carter has led an incredibly fulfilling life after his Presidency. And by the way, it really is “Jimmy”.  That’s what he told me, a twenty-year old kid working on his campaign when I called him “Governor Carter.” And as a former (junior) campaign staffer, I stayed connected to the Carter Foundation and all the great work being done.  It’s not just ending childhood blindness in Africa (trachoma), or building homes in poor American neighborhoods (Habitat for Humanity).  President Carter has personally overseen elections throughout the world, helping to bring democracy in places that never had a say before. 

He stands up for what he believes, even now at ninety-five years old.  While his Presidency got entangled in internal partisan politics, his life after he left the White House is full of even greater achievements. 

He is a man to respect, unlike our current leader.

(Next essay – the rest)

Sausage Update

Sausage Update:  Late Wednesday night, the Senate passed the $2.2 trillion aid package.  The final hitch in the process was a small group of Republican Senators, led by Lindsey Graham, who complained that some workers on extended unemployment might make actually make more money than they would at work.  They would be “dis-incentivized to work,” they said.  But ultimately the bill passed by unanimous consent.

Speaker Pelosi signed onto the bill.  It will pass the House on Friday by voice vote.  No one will call the roll, nor will anyone even call for a quorum.  Most House members are back in their districts, and they’re not coming back. Unanimous consent will put the bill on the President’s desk.  The sausage is made, with all sides getting things they wanted, and accepting things they don’t.

Back to Politics

Don’t tell anyone, but the United States is in the middle of a Presidential election.  It’s been going on for over a year, and while it seemed to “go away” during the Presidential impeachment, and now again in the corona-virus crisis, it’s still out there.  Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden are still contesting for the Democratic nomination, though Biden seems to have an insurmountable delegate lead.  The nominating convention is in July, and unlike the Olympic Summer Games, it can’t be put off until 2021.  If we’re still “socially distancing” by then, Democrats (and Republicans later) will need to find a wholly different way to choose their candidate.

Biden and Sanders are faced with a quandary, one that I’m growing familiar with as well.  As a (substitute) teacher for the remainder of the school year, I am trying to find strategies and techniques to teach a class I can’t meet, have a face-to-face discussion, or even touch.  I know that sounds weird, but part of keeping 7^th grade boys on task is as simple as teaching from right beside their chair, and casually tapping them on the shoulder to bring them back to focus.  I can’t reach through their computer screen and do that.

Old Dogs, New Tricks

So I’m learning new techniques and different ways to catch and keep my middle school students’ attention.  It’s about “old dogs” learning new tricks. 

And there’s no question that Biden and Sanders are “old dogs”.  They are tactile campaigners (and no, I’m not accusing either of anything improper).  Biden and Sanders gain energy from their supporters; they are excited about shaking hands and holding babies.  Their “power” is personal as well as political.  And that’s been shorn from this campaign.  Now all they can do is find new ways to reach out, to make a dent in the electorate.  And it’s even harder to do when the entire nation is focused on something else.

President Trump has a similar problem.  He has two main communication techniques:  the rally and the tweet.  And now the rally is gone:  there will be no more “lock her up” chants for the foreseeable future. His tweets are still effective, he’s gone back to attacking his favorite enemy, CNN.  “…They are CORRUPT & FAKE NEWS” he says, talking about reporting of him isolated in the White House wondering, “when life will return to normal”.   Of course he is.

But tweets have never energized his base and his campaign; it’s been the face-to-face contact, the rallies.  So he’s tried a new technique.  Trump’s dusted off the old James S. Brady Press Briefing Room, the place where Sean Spicer and Sarah Huckabee Sanders met their ultimate demise.  It’s where he drags out his “crisis team,” Vice President Pence, Dr. Anthony Fauci, Dr. Deborah Birx and a cast of other assorted members.  Those folks stand (way, way too close together by the way) as the President’s backdrop for his new technique – the press briefing rant.

National Attention

In 2015 when Donald Trump was considered a joke as a Presidential candidate, he was desperate for airtime on national “news” programs.  He managed to get more free time by calling into television shows like Fox and Friends and Morning Joe (on MSNBC) then all the other candidates combined.  His hours of on-air phone conversations seemed to legitimize his candidacy, and led him to become a “real” candidate for President.

In 2020 President Trump has found a new way to captivate the nation.  The corona-virus crisis has given him center stage on daily national press conferences.  There he gets to tell how “smart” he was to stop travel from China, and how much he’s helping the state governors.  He then gets to attack his favorite enemy, sitting there in front of him, the press.  And he gets to do it all on uncontested national television, in an arena where anyone who contradicts his message can be “slain” by his cutting remark: “that’s a nasty question” or “you’re a lousy reporter”.

National news organizations are well aware of the trap they fell into in 2015.  And they know what’s going on now.  NBC, ABC and CBS cut away from the President when he strayed past 6:30pm, into their national newscasts.  So now the President talks until 6:30, then lumbers off the stage leaving Pence and the rest to continue on the 24-hour news channels.

What Campaign

There’s little Biden (or Sanders) can do to compete with Trump at this point.  They can focus on online media, and the constant flow of emails to registered Democrats.  And they can try to contrast their “normal” approach to national crisis to this President’s.  But all of that doesn’t give them the opportunity of the national audience Trump is able to grab.

In a nation “sheltering in place” it’s hard to imagine what a general Presidential election will look like.  But with our current crisis, it’s also hard to see how we will “return to normal”.  We are not only changing our lifestyles in education, but in politics as well.  All the “old dogs” will have to find new ways to campaign.  And all us voters may have to find as new way to vote.

No one else was in the room where it happened, the room where it happened, the room where it happened.  No one really knows how the game is played, the art of the trade, how the sausage gets made. We just assume that it happens.  But no one else is in the room where it happens.

Lyrics from “In the Room Where it Happened” from Hamilton – The Musical

Two Trillion

Two trillion dollars:  it was only thirty-four years ago that $2 trillion was the total amount the US government debt (today, the amount is approaching $23 trillion).  Today the US Senate is debating corona-virus aid legislation that will add two trillion dollars to the US economy, and to the debt of the United States.  

Or to look at it another way, the total budget for the US government in 2019 was $4.45 trillion.  This week, they plan to spend almost half of that again.

So it’s a lot of money.  Republicans and Democrats don’t agree on much, but at least that’s one thing they all acknowledge.  When the government spends that much money, all at one time, we shouldn’t be surprised that all of the ideas, principles, dreams and bêtes noire of both parties comes out, in spades.  And they’re doing it under extreme pressure, as the country faces an existential crisis as large as World War II and the Great Depression combined.

Watching the Process

And the rest of America, many “sheltering in place” in their homes, has little else to do but watch.  There’s nothing that will ruin the taste of sausage more, then to watch how it is made.  But we’re seeing it, because we’re all “in the room where it happened”.

I use Facebook to see what the “other side” is saying.  Someone somewhere, maybe Brad Parscale in the Trump Campaign, maybe a Russian intelligence agent in St. Petersburg, maybe Mr. Trump’s 400-pound man in his parents’ basement, makes meme after meme attacking Democrats.  

• The Democrats are keeping you from getting paid (not true)
• They are trying to pay for abortions  (some elements of truth) 
• They are pushing the Green New Deal (true for solar energy tax incentives)
• 47 Democrats in the House don’t care about you (it’s 47 in the Senate not the House)
• Drunk Nancy Pelosi is holding up help for you  (it’s the Senate, not the House again – and she’s not drunk).

The Democratic side is pushing their view, but not quite with the same Facebook presence.  Dems are demanding that aid to big corporations have “strings attached” so that the stock buybacks and management salary expansions of 2009 doesn’t happen again.  And Democrats are demanding more power for labor unions, longer extensions of unemployment compensation, and that the “cash handout” to low income Americans not get smaller the less money they make (that was in the original proposal).

Under Pressure

You can feel the pressure – and it really is all about two issues.  The first is direct payments.  Americans heard that if you make less than $75000 ($150000 for a couple) the Government will give you a $1200 check, plus $500 per child.  If you make more than $99000 it’s none (rumor is that will be based on your 2018 tax return).

While the Labor Department has moved to hide unemployment figures, telling states they cannot release the number of unemployment applications filed, it’s clear that there are at least ten times more people unemployed today than a month ago.  The Trump Economy that was his one clear way to win the White House with 3% unemployed is likely to hit 12% or more this month.  People need to cash to pay bills, to eat, and the overwhelming number of applications has bogged the system down.  If they can’t get unemployment compensation, the check “in the mail” may save them.

So that’s created immense pressure on the Congress to “make the sausage”. 

The second area is in what is happening to small business.  Big corporations can “bridge” the loss of income as the economy virtually shuts down.  The Federal Reserve has cut interest rates to zero creating money for the taking.  But for small businesses, the corner restaurant and bar, the local jewelry store, and the second hand furniture store; there’s not enough equity for a normal loan.  Small business needs help to survive, to pay the rent, and to protect the employees they still have (though many have already been laid off).  

The Small Business Administration can offer loans that ultimately will be forgiven to allow those businesses to survive.  That’s in the “bill” and those business owners know it, need it, and want to have it NOW.

Close Your Eyes and Eat

Americans are pressing for action, and many are watching the Congress play-by-play.  

But the sausage isn’t “made” until the final votes are taken.  This is just the Senate bill; the House of Representatives will still want to have their say as well.  And then both House and Senate will need to vote on a final bill again.

And the President will need to sign it into law.  Since his Treasury Secretary has been the prime negotiator in the Senate, it would make sense that with his sign-off, the President will too.  But making sense has not been the hallmark of the Trump Administration.  

It won’t be today, but maybe by Monday – and then the sausage might be ready for the tasting.  Close your eyes and eat.

Provisions of the Senate Bill

as of 3/24/20 (AM) CBS

• Direct payments of $1,200 to most individuals making up to $75,000, or $2,400 for couples making up to $150,000. The amount decreases for individuals with incomes above $75,000, and payments cut off for those above $99,000.
• Expanded unemployment benefits that boost the maximum benefit by $600 per week and provides laid-off workers their full pay for four months
• $367 billion in loans for small businesses
• $150 billion for state and local governments
• $130 billion for hospitals
• $500 billion in loans for larger industries, including airlines
• Creation of an oversight board and inspector general to oversee loans to large companies
• Measure prohibiting companies owned by President Trump and his family from receiving federal relief

Dow Jones

The Dow Jones finished at 29398 on Friday, February 14^th.  It closed on Monday, March 23^rd at 18591.  That’s a loss of 37% of the entire market value in a little over a month.  In very simple terms, if you had $10000 in the market on Valentine’s Day, it’s probably worth about $6300 today (DJI).

Donald Trump has based the success of his Presidency on the health of the economy.  The thermometer he uses to determine that is the Dow Jones Industrial Average of the New York Stock Exchange.  In his rallies he’s flat out said it:  “you don’t have a choice, you have to vote for me, because your 401(k)’s down the tubes, everything’s gonna be down the tubes” (The Hill). 

He wasn’t ready for the corona-virus crisis shutting down the American economy.  He isn’t ready for the sacrifices the crisis is demanding of him, and of the nation.  And he doesn’t know how to win the Presidency without “winning” the Dow Jones.  He can’t win if your 401(k) is already “down the tubes”.

The Epidemic

The hard facts of the corona-virus epidemic are that 40% of Americans will get the virus.  That is close to 130 million people.  80% or more, 102 million people, will get it and recover without a lot of problems.  Americans don’t need to  “socially distance” for them.  To parrot the current Facebook disinformation campaign, for them, it’s just like “the flu”.  The crisis is in the 20% who will get so sick they will need hospitalization.  If those 26 million people hit hospitals all near the same time, there is no possible way our healthcare system can care for them. 

The fatality rate of corona-virus seems to be somewhere under 4%.  Even if only one percent of Americans that get the disease die, that means 1.3 million people.  But if they all arrive at the hospital at the same time, then the fatality rate will be much higher.  Many, many more will die.  They will die for the worst reasons:  from lack of equipment, lack of care, and lack of medications.  They will die unnecessarily.  

To protect those millions, the scientists have told Americans to stop interacting with each other.  If we stay apart, we can slow the spread of the virus.  The number of people who will contract corona-virus may not change, but it will happen over a much longer period of time.  By doing this, the surge of patients in hospitals will be lower.  For those who get the sickest, they will have the best chance of getting care and surviving.  The scientists call it “social distancing” in order to “flatten the curve”.  

Waiting for the Curve

But flattening the curve means extending the time we are socially distant. That means that the economy of the United States will need to stay “closed” for a longer period.  It means that the Donald Trump’s chosen measure of political health, the Dow Jones, will stay bad.  It threatens his reelection.  And he can’t stand it.

Monday, in his daily news brief/political rant, President Trump voiced his impatience:

“We cannot let the cure be worse that the problem itself.  At the end of the 15 day period, we will make a decision as to which way we want to go!” (Fox).

He can hold on for fifteen days, but after that, he wants the economy to start up again.  Regardless of the scientific evidence that shows that the nation may need to stay “closed” longer, maybe even months, President Trump wants to get “back to normal”. That’s a real choice:  the Dow Jones can go up right along with the death rate.  It’s a tradeoff, politics for bodies.

The Sacrifice

Trump’s far right supporters are chiming in, pressing the President to let this happen.  Monday night, Texas Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick spoke on the house organ, Fox News:

“Tucker, no one reached out to me and said, ‘As a senior citizen, are you willing to take a chance on your survival in exchange for keeping the America that all America loves for your children and grandchildren?’ And if that’s the exchange, I’m all in,” Patrick said, later adding, “My message is, let’s get back to work. Let’s get back to living. Let’s be smart about it, and those of us who are 70-plus, we’ll take care of ourselves”(AOL).

Patrick is volunteering to risk his life, and millions of others, to hurry things along.  That’ll fix the Dow Jones, and maybe, get Trump re-elected President again with just a few more (million) deaths along the way.

It’s not a joke, and it’s not an extremist view.  This is the advice that the President is hearing from his internal economic advisors, and it fits right in with what he wants to do, his infamous “gut”.  

Is this America now?  Let’s throw a few million people under the bus, so we get the Dow Jones back up again, and re-elect Trump.

Let’s hope not.

Moses or Camus

It sounds Biblical:  the same forces that led Pharaoh to “let my people free”.  We already are living under the “plague”:  waiting for the real impact of Corona-Virus, the surge of serious illness that may well overwhelm our healthcare systems.  Americans are used to disasters that happen NOW:  hurricanes and tornados, terrorist attacks, fires and earthquakes.  We don’t wait well.

Waiting for the “graphs” and “curves” to come to pass.  Will we peak like Italy, with all of that unbelievable death, or will we flatten (and lengthen, they don’t talk much about that part), so that we don’t overwhelm our hospitals?  We distance ourselves from each other, hope, and wait.

It’s Biblical, apocalyptic, something out of an existential expressionist novel of the 1950’s. If only we could sit around a seedy bar and talk about it, in black and white of course.  But then we wouldn’t be “social distancing,” and anyway, the bars are closed.  I remember reading in college, a “long hair” with torn jeans and flannel shirt, thinking deeply about the absurdity of trying to control the uncontrollable.  In the 1970’s we thought we could “control” almost anything. Existentialism’s ideas then seemed out-of-date and historic. 

So floods are almost like a welcome relief.  Flooding requires movement, problem solving, and action.  They too are inexorable and uncontrollable, but at least there is a visible “foe” to attack.  Flooding is a “normal” disaster.  Americans can deal with that.

All of this is because it flooded here in Pataskala this weekend.  

City Planning

Pataskala is that little farm village that grew.  “City planning” wasn’t really a part of the growth process.  When you talk to the government, they say the drainage system for what now is the city was built on the flat farm fields of Ohio a century ago.  It was probably later for our neighborhood. The first round of development just outside the village occurred about seventy years ago, when the old Van Atta farm, just beyond Vine Street, was one of the first housing additions.  That’s where I live now.

So the developers built storm drainage out of big red clay twelve-inch tiles, laying them across the fields and hooking up to the century old existing village system that went to the river.  No one at the time thought about easements and right-of ways.  They were burying tile in fields, just like the farmers did.

When more developers “filled in” the middle, building in those remaining fields between town and Van Atta, no one worried about the storm sewers running below their houses.  They built right on top of them.  Tiles were everywhere in the old fields, some worked, some didn’t.

Clay Tile

Clay tile is a lot more durable then you’d think.  With all of the houses built, the seventy-year old storm drainage line struggled to handle the increasing volume of water.  A really heavy rain might flood the neighborhood, but give it a couple of hours, and the water would soon go down. It used to be a neighborhood joke, a nuisance.  Folks would bring out their rafts and kayaks and play.  But just recently, the water comes up, and it doesn’t go down nearly as fast.  In fact, it stays long enough for a second round of storms to drive water into basements, garages, and crawl spaces. 

In the thirty-eight I’ve lived in my house, built on a small rise above road level, the garage has never flooded.  Friday there were four inches and more, flooding the room and pouring into the crawl space under the house. It sounded like a waterfall.  The actual structure of the rest of the house is lifted about two feet above the garage level.  Yesterday, I had six inches left before water hit the joists, the electric wires, and came up through the hardwood floors.

What happened?

Cap the Tile

There is a newer house “in town” built directly over the storm sewer, the old clay tile line.  That tile started leaking, and the owner demanded that the city pay him damages for a flooded basement.  The city responded that the house was knowingly built on top of the line and they weren’t responsible.  The owner replied by cutting the line and capping it off.

So now there is no drainage from the old Van Atta farm.  The water flows down the clay tile towards the river – then it stops.  The “lakefront” property that used to be our occasional joke now faces serious ongoing damage.  That’s bad for me, and my house is NOT the lowest house on the street.

The city has a long-term solution.  They may not have an easement for the old clay tile lines, but they do own the roads. So, this summer, a brand new sewer line, big PVC pipe and concrete drop boxes; will be installed under the roads, replacing the seventy-year-old tile.  Instead of dropping money in nuisance lawsuits to defend old red clay, they are putting money towards a modern solution.  Then, if a pipe breaks, the city can dig up wherever it needs to.  It makes perfect sense.

And in the meantime, every time there’s a heavy rain, the City sends workers with a pump and water lines.  They hook at up to the old tile, and pump around the blocked off sewer line and back into the system.  It seems silly, but it’s the literal “work-around”.  The only problem:  water from a twelve-inch tile has to travel through a three-inch hose.  The whole drainage process is slowed way down.

Friday’s Deluge

It rained three inches in as many hours early Friday morning.  High winds accompanied the rain, lashing the houses and street.  Friday is trash-day; the dumpsters were knocked over, drifting down the street now river, spreading neat trash bags around the edges as the water lapped up against the houses.  The recycling bins are kept “loose”, no bags to organize the trash.  You could tell how far your stuff went by what kind of beer bottle ended up in the neighbor’s yard down the street.

I woke up at 6:00am to go grocery shopping. Kroger’s opened at 7:00am  (out of toilet paper at 7:05).  But when I saw the flood, and the garbage, I had to go find my dumpsters, and try to pick up my trash.  It was dark, but I had a “Gorton’s Fisherman” yellow coat on. A (deleted) pickup truck driver decided it’d be fun to soak me.  The neighborhood got an early morning shout-out of Dahlman profanity.

We were late responding to the crisis back at the house.  It took us a while to realize what was happening underneath in the crawl space.  But once we got it, we sandbagged the doors to the garage, and starting pumping the water back into the lake outside the door.  We used my little pump to empty the hot tub, and it took hours to get the water level to drop.  Meanwhile the water crept up in the crawl space, coming ever closer to the joists, the wires, and the floor.

Keeping Occupied

It took until late Friday afternoon to realize the flow was stopped, and the house wasn’t going to flood.  Saturday the garage was a mess, soaked, but the standing water was gone.  The crawl space still had a couple of feet of water, and there was still a lake all around the house.  But everything is slowly draining away.  The sump pumps under the house were hard at work, and I can still hear the city’s pump at work even now.

This is going to be a week for cleanup, when the water finally goes down.  They predict another two to three inches of rain is coming.  But one thing’s for sure – whatever Governor DeWine decides about “sheltering in place” they’ll be a lot to do at this place. I haven’t even looked in the shed at the back of the yard.

 So it’s time to stop writing and get to work.

FDR

Franklin Delano Roosevelt had lots of practice at being the national leader well before World War II.  He became President in 1933, at the depths of the Great Depression.  Unemployment was over twenty percent, most banks were closed, and the stock market hadn’t even begun to recover.  While entering a World War called for all of the strength of the “Bully Pulpit”, entering office in 1933 required more than just words.  

FDR had a plan, the New Deal.  He knew the nation needed to see action, federal action, and in the first one hundred days of his administration he created the “alphabet soup” that became what we know today as the federal bureaucracy. They included: National Recovery Administration (NRA), Federal Emergency Relief Administration (FERA), Civilian Conservation Corps (CCC), Civil Works Administration (CWA), Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA), Agricultural Adjustment Act (AAA), Home Owners Loan Corporation (HOLC) and the Federal Housing Administration (FHA).

He communicated through action, and he communicated directly to the people through his “Fireside Chats”.  FDR didn’t do it in 140 characters; he took time to explain and reassure Americans that their lives would be better.  His Administration exuded confidence and competence.  It’s a little like the press conferences Governor Cuomo of New York is doing now; talking about how people feel as well as the cold hard facts of the corona-virus pandemic and the actions needed to counter it.

The War

So when World War II came around, he had a strong staff, already used to taking the initiative and willing to take the lead in gearing the nation for War.  He had the confidence of the country, and when he told us that “…yesterday, December 7^th, 1941, a day that shall live in infamy,” Americans lined up to join.  

When he needed an organizer to prepare his military, he found George Catlett Marshall, who managed Nimitz and MacArthur, Eisenhower and Patton to win the War. And when he needed a weapon, he found a single-minded son of a bitch, Major General Leslie Groves, who herded his scientists into developing a working atomic bomb.  

Lincoln

Abraham Lincoln was a War President.  He made it clear from before the first shots at Ft. Sumter that there was only one condition for ending the War, reaffirmation of the Union.  Slavery was not the issue, nor was “Northern aggression”.  Stay in the Union, and almost anything else was possible.  Leave the Union, and War was the only answer.

Lincoln made it clear that the Union was more important than even the law.  Ask the Maryland legislators who found themselves locked away without charges in Ft. McHenry, the same symbol of Star Spangled Banner fame.  It’s a little like Ohio’s Governor Mike DeWine, who knew that a statewide election would put Ohioans in greater danger.  So he cancelled the election, and when a court ordered it back on, he had his Director of Public Health declare it a public hazard, and shut it back down.

Lincoln had a “team of rivals” as his cabinet, competitive and absolutely competent.   But while it took him more than a year to begin to find that same competence in his military leadership, ultimately the people stood with him as he searched for General Grant.   It was his rhetoric, his language that spoke to the American people, raising them to a willingness to defend, serve, and become “…the brave men, living and dead, who struggled here…”

More than Words

We know what a “War President” looks like.  Even George W Bush found his place, as he stood at the side of first responders at “ground zero” and said, “I can hear you! I can hear you! The rest of the world hears you! And the people — and the people who knocked these buildings down will hear all of us soon!”  Unfortunately he squandered that respect in an unnecessary War in Iraq.

A War President takes the lead.  He doesn’t equivocate about whether the state or federal government is in charge, or whether getting ventilator machines out to the crisis areas is some “mail clerk’s” job.  A War President uses the media to get out the information he needs people to have.  He doesn’t spend his time disparaging them for “nasty questions” or claims they are all “fake” news.

And a War President finds a Grant or a Marshall or a Groves to spearhead an American effort to deal with crisis.  Instead, this President put his Vice President in charge, and then steps in front of him to take credit for any positive results.  And finally, a War President recognizes that trust and truth are ultimately what creates confidence and a willingness to sacrifice, not made up results or untested cures.

Trump

Why should the kids on spring break in Florida believe what our government is saying?  Our current “War President” has spent three and a half years trying to convince them that the media constantly lies, while lying himself over 16,400 times since his inauguration.  How does anyone trust or depend on that?

When our President claims it’s like being in a War, what he really wants is the laurels of victory that come with being a War President.  What he doesn’t realize is that those laurels aren’t simply bestowed by the office and the situation.  They are won by the leader’s hard earned actions and earned respect.   That hasn’t happened.

By the way – as I write this — on top of everything else happening in the world, this morning’s storms have made my house “lakefront” property again!! Oh boy!

Shelter in Place

“Shelter in place” was a scary enough term when it we were dealing with mass shooters.  As a teacher, it meant huddle in the corner of a classroom, hope that the door didn’t open, and wait for help.  The concept sucked, as did the alternative “Alice” training.  Throwing Campbell’s soup cans at someone with an AR-15 (yep, I even know that means Armalite, not Automatic Rifle) just doesn’t seem like a fair fight.

But now it has a whole new meaning.  In other eras it was called house arrest or curfews, but now it means, “please, stay at home, so we don’t have to make the police force you to do it”.  It’s a kinder, gentler way of keeping folks in their houses.  And, of course, it’s the right thing to do in this corona-virus world – something I expect we will be doing here in Ohio soon.

An After Thought

By the way, Joe Biden won three elections last night.  He gained a 289 delegate lead in the race to the nomination over Bernie Sanders, 1153 to 861.  Biden won Florida 62% to 23%, Illinois 59% to 36%, and Arizona 44% to 32%.  If Ohio had voted he would have won there as well.

But with social distancing, sheltering in place, and cleanliness guidelines, how will the remaining half of the states manage to hold primary elections?  Big states are still in play:  New York, Pennsylvania, Ohio (re-run) and Wisconsin among them.  And if they can’t find a way to vote, what does that say for the November election.  The “wave theory” of corona-virus says there will be this first onslaught, then a pause.  Scientists then predict a second “wave” will hit sometime in the fall, when the social distancing rules may need to be applied again.  

A friend strenuously objected to Ohio’s postponing the election yesterday, saying that we must protect the right to vote at all costs, even in this health crisis.  He had a point:  if there’s a health crisis in November will there be some attempt to postpone the Presidential election?  It would be hard for me to  “shelter in place” if that happened.

Of course there are alternatives.  Oregon and Washington vote by mail: no physical contact or polling places needed. Even those who forget to send their ballots can drop them off at “collection” stations.  That minimizes the risks to both the voters and the collectors.  While many states have struggled to make voting easier, for political or other reasons, perhaps our current health crisis will “trump” those concerns.  We will see.

Bye Bye Bernie?

In the meantime, Democrats are treading lightly when it comes to the Bernie Sanders campaign.  The writing is “on the wall” so to speak for the Senator from Vermont.  Statistically speaking there doesn’t seem to be a reasonable chance he could win the nomination for the Presidency.  As crazy as it seems, it’s less than a month from Bernie’s big win in Nevada and New Hampshire and the virtual write-off of the Biden candidacy, the world is now “upside down”.  Democrats nationwide have spoken, and Biden will be the nominee.

Joe Biden did his best to sound Presidential, magnanimous, and accommodating to the Bernie Sanders’ supporters in his victory talk last night (it really was a streamed talk, not a typical campaign victory speech).  Biden, like Hillary Clinton in 2016, knows that he needs all the help he can get to defeat Donald Trump.  Sanders’ supporters represent votes, and even more importantly, energy in the fall campaign.  So “kid gloves” is the word for talking about Sanders and his followers.

And there isn’t, so far, the bitterness that pervaded the end of the Clinton/Sanders battles of 2016.  The DNC has gone above and beyond to be fair, and like it or not, the voters have made the choice very clear.  So the time is coming to wrap up this primary season.    

The election is currently running way back in second place in this corona-virus news world.  It would be a good time for Senator Sanders to do what’s right for the Party, and the Nation, and let us concentrate on getting through this crisis, and onto ending the four-year disaster of Donald Trump.

New Normal

It’s St. Patrick’s Day, Tuesday, March 17^th, 2020:  a unique day in our history. Unusual things have happened on this day, as Ohio and the rest of the nation dig deeper into the era of Corona-Virus.  Here, Governor Mike DeWine tried to cancel today’s primary elections, and a local court overruled him.  When he lost the case, the wily veteran showed his well-earned political wisdom. He waited until 10:00 pm last night to have his Public Health Director declare the election a public health hazard – too late to appeal.  The election is postponed, probably for a while.

Speaking of Governor DeWine, it’s not often you’ll hear me speak highly of a member of the GOP in this age of Trump.  And while it’s not likely that I’ll be voting for him, I do admire has political courage. Two weeks ago he cancelled one of the most important revenue and sporting events in Columbus, Ohio, the “Arnold Sports Classic;” and the town was aghast.  Today, in what seems like months later, it’s not a big deal.  The Governor is trying to stay ahead of THE curve, literally, and I hope he continues to be willing to make the tough decisions.  He’s doing what’s right, not what’s politically correct. DeWine is an Irish name, and from one Irishman here (it’s Martin O’Connor Dahlman) I’ll raise a glass to the Governor tonight.

Homework

I spent my day working from home.  It’s kind of hard to wrap your head around the idea of substitute teaching from my office at the house, and today grading “papers” was all done online. But I spent my “work” hours staring at some awesome projects from my new social studies classes.  I even got the same old headache I used to get with term papers, but I didn’t fall asleep grading quite as much!

As I worked I listened to the President’s press conference.  As of yesterday he finally realized the real bad news:  millions may die on his “watch”.  Mr. Trump is subdued, and worried, and saying all of the things that he should have said two weeks ago; the kind of things that Mike DeWine has been saying all along. But at least he’s got it, and he’s working to be “Presidential”, something he’s always said he could do but never pulled off.  

I also watch Governor Cuomo of New York today, talking about his children, and his parents, and what life is like under “social distancing”.  The Governor was telling stories of his life to describe what we have to do:  it must have felt the same when Americans gathered around the radio to listen to President Roosevelt in the depths of the Great Depression.  Cuomo’s key:  what’s going to happen is going to take time, but in the scope of our lives, it’s a short time that will only feel like it lasted forever.  The only things we will lose are those family and friends we lose through death.  Whatever we can do to lessen that loss is worth the sacrifice.

In the World

I did venture to the Kroger’s for some needed supplies.  No, we’re still fine on toilet paper, but heaven forbid the dogs run out of carrots, or canned food.  Good thing about the toilet paper, by 2:30 there was none left in the store again.  Someone must have a mountain of that stuff somewhere, a basement filled to the rafters, or a garage that you can’t open the door.  I guess I have to admit it:  I hope they have a flood.  It would serve them right. Even if Ohio says “shelter in place” you still will be able to go to the store for supplies.  That includes toilet paper.

But I found what we needed, keeping my “appropriate” physical distance from the other customers.  Everyone was subdued, except for the young cashier.  There wasn’t a “bagger” so I was doing it myself. As I attempted to pickup a new plastic grocery bag again and again, she watched me, and finally said, “You have to lick you fingers”.  I knew that, but it’s a “new” world of corona-virus, and I didn’t think that finger licking was appropriate.  But as she said, “it’s your bag”. 

St Patrick’s Day

Anyway, I’m thinking about an electronic assignment for my remote students at the other end of the computer screen.  There’s a Bobby Kennedy quote:

            “There’s an old Chinese proverb:  may you live in interesting times. Like it on not, we live in interesting times.”

I think my young charges should write what life is like in the 2020 Corona-Virus.  I hope it’s a one-time event for them, something they can tell tall stories about to their children.  It’s history class I’m teaching, and it’s history that they’re living. So are we.

But regardless of all that, it’s St. Patrick’s Day – and we’ve laid on a supply of Guinness and Conway’s.  There’s no party at the Irish Pub tonight, but I’ll still be celebrating me Irish heritage.

Sláinte!

Bad News at the Door Step

If you listen to the news, this week it seems all depressingly the same.  Social distancing, washing hands, flattening curves, an exponential crisis:  everywhere you turn you’re being warned.  Here in Ohio the schools, restaurants, bars, casinos, racinos (yep, there’s a difference) fitness clubs, and even my dentist’s office are all closed.  When you run into people, out on the street or at the grocery store, they look a little guilty:  I’m not in my house; is my excuse to be out “good” enough?  

Pataskala, Ohio is dealing with the corona-virus crisis just like everyone else.  We’ve had our bad moments.  There supposedly was a fight in the local grocery store:  one man took three packages of toilet paper when he was only allowed to have two, another took the last package left, and wanted the extra.  There were words, and a shoving match, and someone else had to intervene to stop something worse.

It’s odd:  why toilet paper?  How did that become the symbolic product shortage of the corona-virus, a disease of the lungs?  Sure, they’ve run out of bacterial wipes, and paper towels, but toilet paper?  And why is everyone convinced that there will be shortages, that somehow they will be ordered into their homes with no way out?  But that’s where Pataskala’s residents are.  If you want white bread, you’re probably out of luck.  Good thing I like rye!

Back to School

I picked a great time to get back into education.  As the “long-term sub” for a middle school social studies teacher, I was just getting my legs (and voice) back when schools were closed.  Now, this “old dog” is going to have to learn a lot of new tricks.  Education isn’t going to stop:  there’s a whole new world in “Google Classroom” where students and teachers can interact and learn.  Good thing we were supposed to have spring break next week, I can buy some time to figure out how to make all this happen.  

Republican Governor Mike DeWine will probably never get my vote, but he absolutely has earned my respect.  His handling of the crisis has been forthright and honest, and he is willing to make the tough decisions that might save lives here in Ohio.  He rolled out his “plan” over several days, not wanting to “nail” Ohioans with too much at one time.  Sure schools are closed until after April 3^rd, but I would bet as we get closer, schools will remain shuttered much longer.  He’s just in no hurry to deliver one more piece of bad news.

So the staff at the school will learn how to educate from a “social” distance, via computer.  They’ve already picked up the challenge, and many have offered to help an old “chalk” teacher with the new technology.  I’ll get it, and if needs be, we can teach for the rest of the year.  I’ll miss the contact, and the discussions, but that’s the one thing we can’t have for a while.

Good Cops

By the way, since all the kids are at home, some parents are frantic.  They have to work, and the school and the YMCA and the library are all closed. There’s nowhere for their kids to go.  The Pataskala Police Department has offered to stop by and check on them; just give them the address and your phone number.  “Wellness checks” are something they’re happy to do: making sure that young teens are OK at home is a great service to our community.

Good Friends

As I’ve noted before, Pataskala is the home to more pizza shops than almost anything else (well, there’s a lot of car parts places too).  There are also several restaurants of one kind or another, a Chinese carryout, two Mexican places, and a number of bars that serve food.  But the governor has ordered all restaurants closed, carryout or delivery only.  

Members of the community are putting the local menus online, and encouraging folks to buy some local carryout food at least once a week.  The big businesses, the chain restaurants will probably be all right, but places like the Nutcracker and Ziggys and the “hallowed” local pizza place, Capuanos, will need community support to survive the crisis.  I believe that they’ll get all the help they need – it’s just too bad Ziggys can’t carryout beer.

Speaking of beer, even the local brewery, the Granville Brewery, is closed.  But I heard they’ll fill your growlers for you if you need it, you just can’t sit at the bar!!

There’s lots of grousing and grumbling:  no one around here is sick – yet.  But there’s also an underlying fear, of what might happen, if not to you, then to someone you love.  It seems that things will get much worse before they begin to get better.  But Pataskala, with all its flaws, will stand together to help each other.  Neighbors will check on neighbors, and friends with friends.  

They might even loan you a roll of toilet paper.

Back Before

Twelve days ago was “Super Tuesday”.  Joe Biden won big, ten states to Bernie Sanders’ four.  And even Sanders’ win in the “big enchilada,” California, was close, earning him only forty-seven more delegates than Biden, 211 to 163.  Super Tuesday results changed the entire course of the Democratic nominating process, followed up by Biden’s strong results this past Tuesday in Michigan, Missouri, and three other states.  Sanders managed to win only one, North Dakota.

That was the “big deal” last week, the week before the United States confronted the Corona-Virus head on.  And the elections, and life, go on, despite all of the “oxygen” in our lives taken up by this ultimate health crisis.    

My wife is “fostering” a rescued dog.  She named the eight-year old “Bandit,” and he came to the house three weeks ago in sad shape.  His back legs hardly worked, his ears were so filled with infection the he couldn’t hear, and he had other skin infections and probably worms. He was a mess from months wandering outside.  Before there was the corona-virus quarantine, Jenn was quarantined here in the house, giving intensive care to Bandit.  This coming Tuesday he goes for an MRI and possible spinal surgery to determine his fate.

But he has improved under Jenn’s care.  He’s standing better, eating regular dog food, and finally sleeping more than two hours at a time.  He’s good enough, that Jenn could actually leave the house for a few hours without worrying.  Since Tuesday is Bandit’s big day at the veterinary hospital, we decided to go cast our primary votes at the County Board of Elections in Newark.

Social Distancing

It was the first Saturday of  “social-distancing” to slow down the course of the corona-virus.  Folks here in Licking County seem to be taking that seriously.  The roads weren’t as crowded as usual.  When we arrived at the Board of Elections, there wasn’t a line, even though this was the only place to cast early ballots on Saturday morning.  We walked straight in, got our “new” optical ballot from the clerk, and voted.  I complimented the clerks on the new apparatus, not only is there an actual paper ballot printed, but you can visually check your votes to make sure there are no mistakes.  Licking County seems ahead of the voting curve.

We were out, Jenn for the first time in weeks.  So we went to lunch at a local pub.  It was a little early, but we didn’t expect to be the only customers in the place.  It gave us a chance to talk to the staff over our burgers.  This was their new “reality” of business, a few customers but many open tables.  It was supposed to be a Saturday of NCAA basketball finals with the bar packed.  Today the bartender was straightening out the bottles on the top shelf; no one was looking for a drink.

It’s Saint Patrick’s Day weekend, America’s excuse to drink Guinness beer and Jamison’s Irish whiskey.  But it’s not happening, folks are staying home, and no one is getting a tip for good service.

On the Point

What’s going to happen to these restaurants?  One of our favorite spots in Cleveland, Nighttown, has closed its doors for a month.  The workers are laid off, told to collect unemployment.  Other restaurants are shortening their hours, and soon will start cutting back on employees. 

Investors have been anticipating a recession for months, but Corona-Virus has sealed the deal.  It’s not just the stock market, down twenty percent, 6000 points in the past month.  It’s those bartenders and waiters, standing around at the restaurant, talking nervously to the few customers.  Food comes out fast, and drinks are never empty.  But these folks won’t be working for long.  When the government says that they’ll take care of those hurt by the epidemic, I hope these guys are in the front of the line.

I know we’ve got to practice “social distancing”.  My substitute-teaching job has turned into developing materials for “online education”.  Kids are going to check-in online, get their assignments, and then put them in the “drop-box” to be graded.  It’s a “brave new world” of teaching, one that puts us all out of harm’s way.  And if you study the “flattened” curve of disease, it’s going to last for months. So get used to it.

But don’t forget all those folks who are going to lose out.  Not just kids who will miss the personal contact, but people who will lose their jobs because we are all hiding from the virus in our homes.  

And if you go out to eat, leave a big tip.  They need it.

Today

I had the distinct honor of coaching high school track and field for forty years.  Thousands of kids ran, jumped, and threw on my teams.  Some struggled, some were average, and some were champions.  One athlete won the state and set records that still stand.  Others were close to those achievements, striving to be the best. I asked all of them one thing:  to work to be better than they were.  

Track is like that.  You compete against others, sometimes against the best there is, but you always, always, compete against yourself.  And that is what makes it special; it doesn’t require a competitor to measure your own effort and success.  Even if you are the “worst” you can still be better than you were yesterday.  And if you are the best, you can still have a reason to be even better.

Don’t Wait

The advice I often gave those athletes was; “Strive today, because no one can promise tomorrow”.  When you have the opportunity to do something special and extraordinary, don’t fail to make the most of it.  As you float down the track in the 100 meters, the fastest in the field, don’t miss the chance to go even faster.  Tomorrow isn’t promised; a hamstring injury in the prelims might end your season.

When you soar over the crossbar at 15’, don’t let the wind distract you from going even higher.  It might be the one time that all of the random forces, including luck, are at your back.  You might only have this one chance to set a record, to reach your dreams.  Don’t depend on tomorrow, it isn’t promised.  

When you run the fastest 400 in school history, don’t suffer that someone was even faster in the field.  Tomorrow pneumonia might strike, and your season is over.

Focus on today, on now, on this moment.  Achieve it now.  Tomorrow isn’t promised.

As the coach, I was there for many athletes who strived today and hoped for a tomorrow to fulfill their dreams.   For a chosen few, the gift of tomorrow came, and they achieved all that they hoped.  And yet, even for them, there was still that self-competition.  They might have been better than everyone else, but they were not yet better than themselves.

Tomorrow’s Gone

Today, many of those athletes are finding out there is no tomorrow.  It’s all for the right reasons:  the United States is in a desperate race against the Corona-Virus.  It is an odd race, one we will certainly lose.  But if we lose it slowly enough, we can actually win. We must reduce social contact.  We must save lives by saving space in hospitals.  It’s our duty, as a nation. 

But it doesn’t make it easier for those athletes, who are giving up their dreams.  

There is the story of the 1980 American Olympians, many the best in the world at what they did.  They trained their whole lives simply for the chance to compete, and for some, to win a medal.  But the Russians invaded Afghanistan, and the Olympics were in Moscow.  My former boss, President Jimmy Carter, determined that the US team should not compete in the capital of an invading nation.  The cause was right, but the impact on those Olympians lasted a lifetime.  They lost their chance at the dream.

There are few future Olympians running for the team I once coached today.  But there are some alumni training on their college teams, who just lost their NCAA championship chance.  I know them; they will put their heads down and move onto the next goal.  That’s who they are, and how they’ve been trained.  But they will never forget, and they will always regret losing this tomorrow.

Do Your Duty

In the larger scale, everyone knows what’s right.  Everyone knows that, to quote Commander Spock, “the good of the many outweighs the good of the few”.  We will weather this onslaught of Corona-Virus, in six months or a year.  And we will have a vaccine for this disease inside of two years.  Corona-Virus will become another in the list of world pandemics that burned through, then faded away.  

I explained smallpox vaccination to a class of eighth graders.  It’s a disease that exists only in germ warfare labs today, extinguished by science.  I reached to my shoulder to show them that mark of “ancientness,” a scar from the vaccination for a disease they’ve hardly heard of.  So too will Corona-Virus be.

But it won’t change the individual losses, both to those that don’t survive the onslaught, and those who give up their dream that others may live.  We must be a nation of purpose.  But don’t hold it against the few who will do their duty, if they mourn the loss of their tomorrow.

Stop the Surge

It took weeks, but the public health authorities finally gave a clear explanation for their actions.  The question many Americans were asking was that if everyone would ultimately be exposed to the corona-virus, what was the point of “social distancing”.  Why should we go to all the trouble of changing our lifestyles, cancelling our events, and even staying in our homes?  

It isn’t about “avoiding” the virus.  It’s about “stopping the surge”.

Once the United States lost the opportunity to “contain” the virus, the only thing left to do was to “mitigate” the damage.  The damage is in the numbers.  Public health experts suggest as many as twenty to forty percent of Americans will get the corona-virus.  That’s somewhere between 70 to 130 million people.  And, judging on the Chinese and Italian outbreaks, 80% of those will have mild to moderate symptoms, not requiring hospitalization.  They’ll get sick for a week or so, and get better.

Flatten the Curve

So it comes down to the twenty percent, those who need hospitals, intensive care, and even mechanical vents, breathing machines.  Twenty percent of 70 million is 14 million people.  The United States has somewhere around 800,000 hospital beds, and around 70,000 intensive care units.  If millions of people need intensive care all at one time, there is simply nowhere for them to go.  In Italy, doctors have been forced to triage patients, determining who gets care based on who has the best chance of survival.  People are dying because there aren’t hospital rooms for them.

But if public health officials can convince Americans to “spread out,” avoiding mass events where the virus will quickly spread from person to person, then perhaps we can avoid that surge of patients needing care.  It’s not that they won’t ultimately need to be hospitalized, it’s that they will hit the hospitals over a longer period of time.  They can go in, be treated, and be released before the next patient arrives.  Over time, they all can be treated, as long as they don’t all show up at one time.  Many more will survive; hospitals will avoid determining who will live and who will die.

So if we can “flatten the curve” we can spread the number of cases over time.  Flattening the curve spreads patients about, if will allow many more people who are at risk from corona-virus to survive.  It makes perfect sense – they just had to tell us!

It would have made sense three weeks ago too, and it would have worked so much better.

Bernie’s Bargain

Wednesday Senator Bernie Sanders spoke out about the results of Tuesday’s primaries.  He made it clear that he was going to continue his campaign, and debate Biden Sunday in Phoenix.  But Bernie’s speech wasn’t really a challenge to Biden’s success; it was the opening gambit in negotiations with the Democratic convention.

Sanders honorably has spent a lifetime fighting for his beliefs.  Universal health care, forgiveness of student loans, and dealing with climate change are his core issues.  He’s bringing them to the table at the debate, demanding that Biden respond to his concerns.  What Bernie offers is a motivated base, a voting group that Biden absolutely needs to win the election in November.  

And Biden can offer Sanders and his supporters reasonable answers, moving to “the left” without leaving his more moderate supporters.  So the debate on Sunday is likely to be more friend-to-friend negotiations, rather than a bitter attack that damages both candidates.  

If Sanders likes what he hears, and Biden gets the results in Tuesday’s primaries in Ohio, Florida, Illinois and Arizona that he expects, perhaps the Democratic Primary campaign will wrap up in the next week.  If not, Sanders will continue.  This is his last chance to run for President, and his best chance of getting his views “on the table”.  He won’t quit without getting something.

Back to Work

Just a personal note:  I’ve gone back to work, temporarily.  I’m teaching social studies to sixth, seventh and eighth graders, filling in for a teacher who just had her first child.  It’s a real eye-opener:  when I left the classroom in 2006 there were still chalkboards and pencil and paper notes.  Today there’s a “Smart Board”, every kid has a “Chrome Book” and tests, assignments and projects appear magically in the “In Box”.  

Luckily for me, kids are still kids, and history is still history.  So if my “Trump World” essays seem to be appearing later in the day, and have odd references to Hindu culture, the Middle Ages, or the Civil War, there is a reason.  It’s exciting to be back in the classroom, but it’s not exciting to be back in “five in the morning” world.  Thank goodness spring break is only a week away!

Is It Over?

Another Tuesday

Tuesday’s primary votes are telling a story, a tale that supports Joe Biden’s candidacy.  But it’s not “all about Joe,” it’s more about the choices Democrats are making today.

Just as South Carolina was Biden’s “firewall”, a total win or lose proposition, Michigan was Bernie Sanders last line of defense.  The Biden campaign was on its last legs after abject failure in Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada.  Anything short of overwhelming success in South Carolina, a state where African-Americans make up over half of the Democratic electorate, and the Biden campaign would wither away.  It wouldn’t be Biden’s choice:  the money would dry up, and with it, his candidacy.

South Carolina and Jim Clyburn came through for Biden.  That Saturday success turned the tables on the national electorate, and Super Tuesday led to Biden victories throughout the country.  He took the delegate lead, but more importantly, he came through in the popular vote among African-Americans, suburban women, and older voters.  Biden created his own unique coalition, different from Barack Obama, and from Bernie Sanders as well.

Super Tuesday was important not just because of the success of the new Biden coalition.  It was also marked by the failure of the Sanders “revolution,” the whole new grouping of young new voters who were going to change the fabric of the American electorate.  Bernie counted on them to appear in overwhelming numbers, enough to bring his Social-Democratic dream to the fore in American politics.

No Revolution

But it didn’t happen.  The young supporters didn’t turn out to vote.

So Michigan became his last bastion, the site of a surprise victory over Hillary Clinton in 2016 that re-energized his campaign.  Michigan convinced Sanders to continue his 2016 efforts all the way to the end of the primary season, much to the disgust of the Clinton camp.  

The question to ask about 2016:  were people voting for Bernie Sanders, or were they voting against Hillary Clinton. Clinton had the second highest negatives of any major candidate to run for President (Trump had the highest):  were Michigan voters in 2016 choosing the Social-Democratic philosophy, or were they simply opposing another Clinton for President?  And how much of a role did misogyny play in both the primary and general elections?  Was it just the fact that a woman was running for President that cost her the election?

So when the Sanders campaign went “to the barricades” in Michigan last week, they couldn’t have been absolutely confident.  Yes they had the bulwarks:  college voters from the University of Michigan and Michigan State to Superior State.  Would those students be enough to offset the powerful vote of the black community around Detroit, clearly trending towards Biden?  What would the suburban vote, fresh off the “change” election of 2018, say about Sanders? And how would the Michigan farmers, suffering under the agricultural and immigration policies of the Trump Administration do?

Bad News for Bernie

It’s probably not as much about Bernie, as it is about Donald.  Turnouts are hitting record levels, but it isn’t the “revolution” that’s driving folks to the polls.  And while Joe Biden may be a “good guy” and all, he’s not Barack Obama, with charismatic energy.  Democrats are coming to the polls with a single, burning purpose:  to choose the candidate that can beat Donald Trump.

2016 Democrats weren’t even worried about Donald Trump. They thought, “The GOP would never nominate him”. Or if they were foolish enough to do so; he would never, ever, never have a chance of being elected.  So the 2016 primaries were about the last year’s of the Obama Presidency, and the frustration of McConnell blocking every effort to make positive changes.  Merrick Garland was only the most obvious example, it seemed that every Democratic goal was stopped by, the “Grim Reaper”.

So Democrats in Michigan and other places took the opportunity to challenge the establishment, in the persona of Hillary Clinton.  Bernie was the foil, the tool used to express common Democratic feeling of frustration.  

But we woke up on a Wednesday morning in November to the realization that Donald Trump was President.  Democrats have lived that nightmare ever since.  2020 Presidential calculations have come down to one simple equation:  which candidate has the best chance of ending the Trump Presidency.

Why Joe?

Results show that Democrats aren’t willing to risk the Sanders Revolution for fear that it might fail.  They are willing to take a less than perfect candidate in Biden, who is a weak stand-in for President Obama. He still represents the strength, calm and professionalism of the Obama Administration.  In short, they don’t want a revolution; they want a return to normalcy.

Every single county in Michigan went for Joe Biden Tuesday night.  Even in Washtenaw County, home to the University of Michigan and Eastern Michigan University, Biden edged Sanders out.  And in the northern farm counties, up high in the “mitten”, the farmers voted for Biden as well.

Sanders flew back to Vermont Tuesday night, forced to cancel his Cleveland rally due to corona-virus concerns.  He had nothing to say.

So he will need to make a decision soon.  In 2016 he went all the way to the end of the primaries, forcing Hillary to defend in each state while knowing that she would ultimately need the Sanders’ supporters to win in November.  If he does that again in 2020, will he really chance wounding Biden in the ultimate quest to beat Trump?  

Known Knowns

Here’s an update on the coronavirus. We know if you’re healthy, especially young and healthy – coronavirus is generally not a risk to you. If you’re older – like me – or have underlying health issues – or both – coronavirus puts you in danger. We think 80% of people who get coronavirus will be ok.  The other 20% will face serious illness with possible long-term damage, and particularly lung damage. And of course some small percentage of them, elderly mostly – will die. 

You read the memes and messages – flu kills more people – we don’t freak out about it. Measles is more easily transmitted – and we are only mildly concerned.  

And there is the one scientific fact that we absolutely know.  If we don’t test people for coronavirus, we won’t know how many people are sick.  Many will have cold and flu symptoms, and simply treat themselves.  They won’t “go in the count”.  But they will have the opportunity to spread their disease, for up to two weeks before they experience whatever symptoms they are going to have.

Not testing doesn’t mean we’re doing better than other countries, like Italy or Iran or China.  It simply means we don’t know what we don’t know.

Counter-Measures

But we have vaccines for both flu and measles. Much of the concern about those diseases is that by not getting vaccinated, those most in danger are placed at the greatest risk – people immune compromised or otherwise unable to be protected.  It’s not so much that you or your kid will get sick, it’s that you or they become a walking infection machine before being aware they are sick. Then they infect those who can’t survive the disease. 

And there’s no vaccine for coronavirus:  all that can be done is treat symptoms in those who become critically ill. In a letter from an Italian doctor I read recently, he spoke of the shortage of mechanical vents, breathing machines, in Italian hospitals.  Operating rooms are turned into intensive care units as the last vents left available.  In some cities there is no other medical care going on other than treating coronavirus. The at-risk twenty percent are overwhelming. 

Here in America we are being given lessons on washing hands. We are told stay six feet from each other (try that in any public school classroom in America) and sneeze in your elbow, not your hands. 

Doesn’t that sound reassuring?  Modern science at it’s best, saving society with soap, water, and alcohol based sanitizer. That’s it: sing a song while you wash your hands? Our vaunted medical establishment, the folks that stopped Ebola, that’s all they’ve got?

Yep.

Mitigation not Containment

So let’s get all this straight. COVID 19 is the particular coronavirus we are worried about.  The opportunity to “contain” the virus has passed, with “community transmission” (sounds like a cable company) occurring in several parts of the United States.  Now, all that can be done is mitigation – another term for cutting losses. 

Like the Ebola outbreak in 2014, we’ve started with nothing more than isolation and “mitigation”.  The difference is during Ebola; mitigation was quickly followed by a vaccine of sorts, and even more specific treatment options.  And there was no “community transmission”.   But we are being told by the “best and the brightest” of American medicine, that a vaccine is a year away, at minimum.

“But the spring will end this,” they say.  “Like the flu, it will go away in the summer sun.”  We don’t have any reason to know that.  It didn’t happen with the Spanish Flu in the horrible epidemics from 1918 to 1920.   And by the way, it isn’t the temperature that reduces the incidence of disease.  It’s the fact that folks spend more time outside, beyond the four walls of the hothouse disease spreading environments of their homes and offices.  School’s out too.

Looking Forward

It’s disappointing.  We expected more from our science, and our government.  But we are here now, facing a massive infection of American society.  This isn’t the apocalypse, and this particular disease won’t end our society, though it already is having a dramatic impact on our economy.  Oil prices are down:  China’s not using as much, and a tiff between Russia and Saudi Arabia means that the supply will go up.  That’s fine; gas prices will probably drop again soon.

That will match the stock market, after a few days of near free-fall.  The Market is looking forward to limited productions, supply-line disruptions, and possible citywide quarantines.  Working from home doesn’t work, if you’re a restaurant, or a factory, or a distributor.   While the Administration and the Federal Reserve will try to “pump” the economy by adding funds, money might not solve the market value problems.

It’s America.  We will find a way to muddle through.  We will have elections and conventions, and probably the World Series as well.  But denial is not the answer.  We need to recognize the problem, realize that some will in fact get sick, really sick, and some will die. We need our hospitals to get prepared for the onslaught. And then,  we’ll have to deal with it, not ignore it.

Numbers Count

Politics is a matter of numbers.  Can you raise enough money?  Do you have enough contacts? Have you found enough issues that resonate with the voters? Did you get enough votes?

In 2016 we learned that polling isn’t an exact science.  Many felt that the polls mislead the American people, polls that showed Hillary Clinton as the clear winner of the Presidential election up through the day before the vote.  And, as Democrats are quick to point out, Hillary technically got the most votes in the election, by almost three million.  But that’s not how America chooses its President.

Pollsters would argue that the Trump/Clinton polls were “within the margin of error”.  But the fact that every poll showed Clinton winning, and every poll was on the “wrong” end of the error margin certainly led many Americans to doubt their credibility.

So the fact that the most recent polling shows Joe Biden ahead in the Michigan primary (by six percentage points) isn’t something you’d bet the ranch on.  We’ve learned that betting the ranch might cost – the ranch.

Two Issues

In Michigan, Senator Sanders is arguing that he is “closer” to the labor voters because he was against NAFTA and the “Bailout of 2009”.  Sanders argues that NAFTA sent good Michigan jobs out of the country, without protecting workers here at home.  And he argues that we “bailed out” the wealthy Wall Street firms in the Great Recession, but left the common homeowners hanging with underwater mortgages.

He’s not wrong.  And to make his next point, Sanders points out that Joe Biden voted for NAFTA, and was the Vice President supporting President Obama with the Wall Street bailout.  That’s how Bernie plans to make his point to Michiganders:  I backed you, Joe didn’t.

Of course, Biden will come back that Sanders was against the auto industry bailout that saved General Motors and Chrysler.  That bailout saved thousands of Michigan jobs, and the single most important industry in the state.  So there’s that.

Waterloo

Bernie Sanders is in a difficult situation.  After the surprise of  “Super Tuesday”, he now is behind in delegates to the Democratic Convention in July.  Tomorrow Michigan, Missouri, Mississippi, North Dakota, and Washington will determine their delegates.  Judging from “Super Tuesday” results, Biden will likely have an overwhelming victory in Mississippi.  Sanders won Michigan in 2016, and did well in Missouri.  Whether that was a reaction to the negative imagery of Hillary Clinton, or more about his stand on the issues, will be tested tomorrow.  But one thing is clear:  Sanders must staunch the bleeding of Super Tuesday.  If he doesn’t win somewhere, in particular, if he can’t replicate his Michigan win of 2016, it’s hard to find his path to the nomination.

Michigan may represent his “Waterloo”:  win and he’s Wellington, lose and he’s Napoleon. 

Pure Michigan 

Michigan is highly representative of the American electorate.  There is the urban center of Detroit, with a high percentage of black voters.  Biden has so far dominated with that voting block.  But Sanders has tried to make inroads; Jesse Jackson came in to endorse him last weekend.  Whether Jackson will impact with older black voters, an area where Biden runs strong, still has to be seen.

There is the strong labor union vote in Michigan.  Union leadership seems to be trending towards Biden, but Sanders hopes his platform appeals to the rank and file. Sanders won strong union support in Nevada despite their leadership; gaining union votes is his key to winning.  But perhaps most significantly, there is a strong suburban vote in Michigan, the vote that turned Michigan from Republican to Democratic control in 2018.  Sanders must find a way to appeal to suburban voters in Michigan, in order to prove that he can reach them nationwide.

But most importantly, Bernie needs to reach the younger voters, and turn them out to the polls.  The core of Sanders appeal is his outreach to Millennials and younger.  If they don’t vote overwhelming for him, it’s hard to imagine a Sanders victory.

It Ain’t Over ‘til It’s Over

This Tuesday will NOT mark the end of the Democratic primary campaigns.  But Tuesday’s results will tell us whether the Biden “surprise” was a fluke, or a movement.  And that will tell us whether Bernie Sanders is destined to be the Democratic Candidate for President, or will have his same result from 2016.

Tuesday will tell that tale.

Philmont

I was thirteen soon to be fourteen in August of 1970.  As a Boy Scout I was given a special age waiver to participate in a “high adventure” activity at Philmont, New Mexico.  The Boy Scouts owned (still do) several hundred square miles of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains near the town of Cimarron, and small groups of Scouts would backpack from camp to camp through the range.  It was a ten-day adventure, taking us high above the tree line on Mt. Baldy at 12,000 feet, and exploring near one hundred miles of the world of New Mexico wilderness.  We met deer, and bear, and tested our limits on the high mountain trails.  

We were on the western side of the territory, miles from the headquarters and highway, when a boy died on a base camp day hike.  He didn’t die of injury; he became gravely ill from an unknown cause, and then passed away.  Authorities weren’t sure what caused his death, but the symptoms he exhibited before his passing resembled pneumonic plague.

Plague

Everyone knew what the bubonic plague was, the rat-borne bacterial disease that killed massive numbers of the population in the middle ages.  And even if they don’t know about the plague, they probably know the signs:

“Ring around the rosy, pocket full of posey, ashes, ashes, all fall down”.

That ancient rhyme describes the ringed red pustules of bubonic plague that smelled so bad that flowers were used to try to cover the odor.  Burning bodies, “ashes, ashes” and everyone dies.  It seemed like such an innocent childhood song.

Bubonic plague was passed through fleas.  The rats had the disease and the fleas bit the rats.  The rats died, and the fleas moved onto the nearest warm bodies, humans, carrying the disease with them. 

The plague still exists in some rodent populations, including squirrels in the mountains.  But pneumonic plague is different, instead of passing through an insect bite; it is carried in the air by droplets from an infected source.  That makes it much more dangerous, because it is so easily transmitted.

Quarantine

They sealed Philmont off.  Parents drove to the camp, lining the highway at the front gate trying to reach their children.  The National Guard came in to guarantee the quarantine.  My group, 8-04-C2, blithely continued hiking our itinerary, actually passing off the property for half a day before reaching our next camp.  Headquarters didn’t want to call everyone back in, massing the Scouts in base camp would increase risks of infection.

So, while my parents worried, and my sister had her first child, I was marching the hallowed trails of Philmont.  It took a couple of days and an autopsy to find that the unfortunate boy had a congenital heart defect, not pneumonic plague.  The crisis that didn’t ever exist was averted.

Coronavirus

We are not so lucky today.  The crisis of the COVID-19 virus is very real.  Like the pneumonic plague, it is passed through airborne droplets, or through contact with the virus on surfaces.  Unlike plague, it has a much lower fatality rate, though scientists are still unsure how dangerous it may be.  Somewhere between 2% and 4% of those who contract the disease die. The victims are older, sicker, or have compromised immune systems.

The disease moves from person to person, with the potential for exponential growth.   I’m not a “math guy”, so I’ve stolen a graph from the Internet to explain the difference between linear growth and exponential growth.

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Known Unknowns

Now the Centers for Disease Control tell us that the United States has 164 cases of coronavirus (as of today, March 7 CDC).  But the one factor they don’t mention:  the tests to diagnose sick people with coronavirus are still extremely limited.  If you can’t test people, you can’t know how many people have it.  If you don’t know how many people have it, you can’t determine what the progression of the disease might be.

Somehow, the United States, the leader in scientific research in the world, hasn’t developed a mass test for this disease.  In fact, we are told that we pay the highest drug costs in the world because we are financing that scientific research, the infamous “cost of the first pill” that drives American pharmaceutical prices.  But if you go to your local doctor today, it’s unlikely he can test you for coronavirus.

Instead, you must go to a hospital emergency room, a fertile area for disease transmission pretty much anytime, and even then you may not be able to get tested.  The United States is not ready.  We don’t know, we what don’t know.  And we don’t know how many people have coronavirus today.

What to Do

So the great American scientific community is telling us to wash our hands, stay away from sick people, and not to touch our faces.  And we are cancelling mass gatherings:  college basketball games played in empty field houses, the Ultra Music Festival in Miami and the famous South by Southwest Festival in Austin called off.  The elderly and sick are told not to fly, and for sure, not go on a cruise.

But Disney World remains open.  Orlando still beckons spring breakers.  Everyone is determining how much of their life will be disrupted for this unknown disease.  They are trying to determine if hiding in their home is enough to protect them, and if it’s worth it.

We need better guidance, and the government needs to get better information.  It looks like we’ve missed the opportunity to “stop” anything, now we are going to have to deal with the human, medical, and economic consequences.  

Maybe it’s time to head for the mountains.

Liberal

I used to be a Liberal.  I believe in liberal ideals, like the Affordable Care Act with an option for government insurance like Medicare for anyone who wanted it.  Like we ought to have at least two more years of public education available for everyone for free.  That we ought to make a huge government-run effort to fix the environment, with an emphasis on reducing hydrocarbons and making energy from renewable non-polluting sources.

I used to be a Liberal.  I looked to the “liberal lions” of the Senate, Hubert Humphrey and Ted Kennedy, Russ Feingold and Sherrod Brown, as role models and defenders.  Franklin Roosevelt and Lyndon Johnson were liberals (at least Johnson as far as civil rights were concerned).  And I “thought” that the term “liberal” was changed to “progressive” for political reasons.  Somehow in the 90’s people thought that “liberal” was bad, so they came up with a new term for it.

Progressives

I was listening to former Ohio State Senator Nina Turner last night.  Turner is a co-chair of the Bernie Sanders campaign, and made it clear that unless you were “all-in” on the Sanders’ agenda, you weren’t a “progressive”.  Medicare for All, the Green New Deal, paying off all college debt, and taxes on the wealthy:  all are gospel.  If you aren’t for all of it, then you aren’t a “progressive”.  I like a whole lot of those ideas, but I also have trouble seeing a path for their absolute acceptance by even a small majority of Congress.

In the “old” days, the Bernie Sanders movement would have been considered beyond the “liberal” wing of the Party.  Social Democrats in the German or United Kingdom mold were beyond the scale of modern American politics.  So the Sanders movement has taken the title “progressive” and left the rest of the Democratic as “moderates”.  But moderate means something very different to me.

Moderates

Mike Bloomberg is a moderate.  While he has some more “progressive” notions, like gun control, he is essentially a Wall Street Democrat. Bloomberg is closer to the “Rockefeller Republicans” of old, a moderate wing of the Republican Party that has ceased to exist.  The remnants, with nowhere left to go, became Democrats, just like the former Republican mayor of New York.

Jimmy Carter was a moderate, the Governor of Georgia running to the middle to win the Presidency.  In fact, one of Carter’s biggest difficulties in governing was in gaining cooperation with a Democratic House and Senate, both more liberal than him.  Their inability to reach agreements to govern helped get eight years of Ronald Reagan’s administration.

Bill Clinton and the “Blue Dog” Democrats were moderates.  They were more concerned about balancing the budget than many of the social issues that would cost money.  At the time, they were able to reach agreements with many of the Republicans, who still were in the Bloomberg moderate lane.  

But there seem to be no more moderate Republicans left.  Folks like John Kasich, who appears to be a more moderate Republican today, is really a traditional conservative of old.  It’s just that the Party has moved so far to the right – Kasich looks like he’s in the middle.

There are however moderate Democrats, including many of the new House of Representative members who turned Republican seats in the 2018 election.  It was those moderates who won control of the House, basically filling the vacuum that the “new” Republican Party left in the middle of the ideological spectrum.  These are also the Democrats who most fear a Sanders’ Presidential candidacy.  They know that they can’t move so far to the left to reach Sanders without losing their Congressional Districts.

Semantics

It’s all a question of semantics, but semantics has political consequences.  Just as current Republicans today claim the “conservative” title of old, when in fact they are far right of traditional conservatives, so the Sanders’ camp is claiming the progressive label.  They are far past what a traditional liberal, a Paul Wellstone or Gary Hart would be.  By taking the “progressive” label, they are trying to mainstream what is a more extreme ideology.

That doesn’t mean their ideology is wrong. 

What it does mean is that there is little common ground between the extreme of Social Democrats and even the moderates in their own party.  Where is the compromise allowing a more diverse Congress to move legislation, that the “my way of the highway” purity test doesn’t allow?   In our Democracy, there has to be a way to reason, and compromise, to achieve almost anything.

So I’ll stick with my own label.  I am a Liberal, out of the grand tradition of liberalism in the Democratic Party.  I won’t be pushed into the “progressive” wing, but don’t you dare call me a “moderate”.