Five Days
The next five days are critical for Senator Bernie Sanders. Tomorrow’s South Carolina primary will determine whether Sanders’ current major competitor, Joe Biden, remains a viable candidate for President. If Biden has a big win in South Carolina, he can move on. Less than that, Biden’s funds will dry up, and his candidacy will end.
Then on Tuesday, Sanders faces the power of the “almighty dollar” in Mike Bloomberg. How Sanders, Biden and Bloomberg fair in the seventeen state election will give everyone a more accurate view into the Democratic race.
I know, I haven’t mentioned Warren, or Klobuchar, or Buttigieg. I don’t see a way for them to proceed, unless Tuesday’s results are so fractured that no one is advanced. If that is the case, then Democrats are in for a wild ride, and a divided convention. Folks talk about Sander’s candidacy resembling George McGovern in 1972. But that fragmented result might be more like the riot-filled convention in Chicago in 1968.
Super Stupid
The New York Times published an article this week about Democratic Party Officials using “super delegates” to stop Sanders at the convention, if he can’t win on the first ballot (NYT). It’s a stupid thing for them to be talking about. The election is now, and the “narrative” hasn’t been written yet. If there is one thing that will motivate Sanders’ voters, it’s the shadow of the “DNC” trying to put its thumb on the convention scale. Many Sanders’ supporters are convinced that happened in 2016. Even if the Democratic leaders are doing exactly that, they need to shut-up about it now before they create a self-fulfilling prophecy of Sanders’ success.
But here’s what should happen.
The Revolution
Bernie Sanders has based had candidacy on creating a “revolution” that will carry him to the Presidency. Sanders has been very clear: for his programs to move forward, he will need the House and the Senate to join in. As Angelica Schuyler sings in the musical Hamilton: “…you want a revolution? I want a revelation!” The revelation that Sanders need to demonstrate to the Democratic Party: his “revolution” really exists.
A revolution requires an army of followers. Senator Sanders has promised that he will bring a whole new cadre of voters to the polls, voters that haven’t been part of the electorate in the past. He promises the young, the Millennials, and the disaffected. That’s how revolutions work, and it’s what Bernie has preached for decades.
Now is his chance. Prove the “Revolution.” Bring this whole new constituency to the polls, and win. If the Senator can do this, there won’t be a question about wining the nomination on the first ballot. He will have an overwhelming majority in the convention, and the super delegates won’t have the chance to influence the outcome.
And there won’t be the fear that Sanders is the “next” George McGovern, a man who won only one state in the landslide Presidential defeat of 1972. If there is a “revolution” then the revolutionaries will show up in November, and the loss of “Never-Trump” votes on the “right” won’t cripple Democratic candidates. There will be a “blue tsunami” of millennial voters, new to the fight, lifting Democrats to the Presidency, and control of the Congress.
Place Your Bet
Senator Sanders is asking Democrats to go “all-in.” He wants the Party to support his brand of Democratic-Socialism, going farther “left” then ever before. And he’s doing it at a time of the greatest risk to American democracy: Donald Trump.
Senator Sanders only earns the right to place that bet, if he can bring new voters to the table. There is no “credit” available in this game, he’s got to prove the “goods”. The proof is simple: he either has the votes and the delegates to win on the first ballot, or he doesn’t. If he can’t win on the first ballot, than he has failed to prove the “revolution”. That failure would show Democrats that his gamble won’t pay off.
Then the delegates in Milwaukee will need to make a different choice.
