“Between 2014 and 2060, the US Population is projected to increase from 319 million to 417 million…by 2030 one in five Americans is projected to be 65 or older, by 2044, more than half of all Americans are projected to belong to a minority group (any group other than non-Hispanic White alone), and by 2060, nearly one in five of the nation’s total population is projected to be foreign born.” US Census – Projections – 2014-2060
Post Mortem
No wonder Republicans are worried.
After the Mitt Romney lost in 2012, the Republican Party did a “post-mortem” study of their last two Presidential elections losses. In the 100-page report released in 2013 (Atlantic), the future of a GOP that didn’t make drastic changes was foretold. The Party was described as shrinking; closed to minorities, women, youth and Hispanics. The Republican Party of 2012 was a Party of white men, and the “post-mortem” emphasized that to survive, it had to reach out to the groups that were ignored.
The Party was looking for a different identity, one that could expand to Hispanic voters in Florida, Texas, Arizona and California, reach out to a growing African-American middle class, and be more inclusive of youth and women. It could be the Party that recognized the changing demographics of America, one that could survive into the 2030’s and beyond. It could be the Party of Jeb Bush, or Marco Rubio, or even John Kasich.
Rise of the Alt-Right
But the Republicans didn’t take into account the growing alt-right movement, lead by publications like Breitbart and leaders like Steve Bannon. At the beginning those “insurgents” operated outside the Party structure, and outside of the main Republican media organ, Fox News. But when there were sixteen original candidates for the 2016 Presidential nomination, the alt-right forces were able to consolidate behind a single candidate, Donald Trump.
Trump threw out the “post-mortem” and created a new “populist” Republican doctrine. He reached out to disaffected whites, particularly white men, who felt that the changes in America symbolized by the Obama Presidency were leaving them behind. And he offered the Christian right everything they wanted: Supreme Court Justices to ban abortion, abolition of “offensive” Affordable Care Act provisions, renouncing expanded LGBTQ rights, and undying loyalty to Israeli expansion.
Instead of expanding the Republican Party base, the Trump campaign unified this new white populism. And while Trump was unable to win a majority in the early primaries, his consolidation led to pluralities against the divided opposition. This led to his nomination, and ultimately his election as President, despite Trump’s personal character flaws.
Minority Rule
Throughout his first term, Trump has never had a majority of Americans view him as “favorable”. It is still his “minority”, his base that maintains loyalty. And, in the mean time, the Trump Campaign has consolidated its power. Now, there is no Republican Party outside of Trump: he controls the National Committee, the financing, and the media organ, Fox News. Few Republicans will stand against him, their fate is sealed by a “tweet”: ask John Kasich, or Mark Sanford, or now Mitt Romney.
But ultimately, the “arc of our universe” is against the Republican Party. Within two decades, white people in America will no longer be a majority. A political party that isolates itself from non-white voters cannot look to survive. And in the next twenty years the realities of climate change will become both apparent and irreparable. The Party that denies that cannot expect to be trusted.
Grabbing Power
So the Republican Party of today is doing everything it can to consolidate power. Mitch McConnell is single handedly packing the Federal Courts, with 25% of Appellate Court judges now Trump appointees. McConnell held a Supreme Court seat open through the final year of the Obama Administration, securing an “extra” seat for Trump. And, if another seat were to come open before January, whether Trump wins reelection or not, you can expect McConnell to swiftly move to fill it.
On a state level, the Court packing has already increased Republican power. The Courts allowed the Republican gerrymandering plan, RedMap, to continue. RedMap creates extreme alterations to Congressional District maps maximizing the number of Republican representatives and minimizing Democrats. In states like Ohio, North Carolina, and Georgia, it allows Republicans to have a disproportionate majority of Congressmen.
Last Bastion
And the Republican Party is a fierce defender of the Electoral College system. It reduces the overwhelming influence of popular votes in Democratic states like California and New York, and allows results where the winner of the popular vote still does not become President. Hillary Clinton won by three million in 2016 but lost the Presidency. The Trump strategy for 2020 is geared to produce a similar result.
The Republican Party has become the Party of “rural America”. The “Red States” of the middle of America don’t have population, but they do have two Senators a-piece, just like the populous states on the coast. As the population increases in the next twenty years, the relative power of those Senate seats will become more important. Holding onto the Senate must be a Republican priority; it will be the last bastion of their control.
None of these actions prevents Democrats from winning. What they do mean is that it will require more than just a slim majority. In order to overcome the Republican structural advantages, Democrats will need an overwhelming popular victories, not only winning the Presidency, but the Senate and State legislatures as well.
But if it doesn’t happen in 2020, change in political power is still inevitable. The Republican Party has chosen the past. The future is Democratic. The arc of the American universe is long, and it bends towards diversity.
