It’s Monday, February 3rd, 2020. It’s the day that many Americans have been waiting for since the early morning hours of Wednesday November 9th, 2016; when the Trump Presidency became a nightmarish reality. It’s the beginning of the Presidential election cycle, and for Democrats, it begins in Iowa.
Different Ways to Choose
If you know anything about the American electoral process, you know it’s eccentric. We have the Electoral College that gets selected to choose the President. And we have differing ways to choose who are the Presidential candidates for the political parties.
Here in Ohio it’s pretty simple, you ask for a ballot for the Party of your choice, and then you pick one candidate from the list on the ballot. It’s an election, and though the winner doesn’t “take all” this year, there definitely is a “first place”. That primary chooses delegates to the nominating convention, divided by the candidates’ ranking in the vote.
Four states, Alaska, Kansas, Hawaii, Nebraska, will make their Presidential candidate selection using “ranked choice” voting. Voters rank the candidates by preference. The “first place” votes are counted, and the candidates with less than 15% are dropped. Then the ballots are recounted without those candidates, with those that had the dropped candidates at first now counting their second choice as first. The delegates to the nominating convention are then apportioned by those final results.
The Caucus
And then there are the caucus states, leading off tonight in Iowa. In caucus states you don’t go to your precinct to vote – you go to meet (caucus). At the meeting, held in a big room (think high school gym) you walk in, and go to the section of the gym designated for the candidate you support. So go to the “Biden Corner”, or the “Bernie” section of the bleachers, or the “Yang” center court. When everyone is organized, they count the people in the sections.
No, it’s not over. When the first count is done, any candidate that doesn’t have at least 15% of the total no longer counts. Those who were in their “corner” are now free to go to their “second choice,” any other candidate still in the count. So in that brief reorganizing time, there’s a tremendous amount of persuasion as neighbors try to convince neighbors to come over to “their” corner. After the second count, the results are reported, precincts are added up, and the delegates apportioned.
Stand UP
In the caucus, neighbors have to literally show up and stand up for a particular candidate. Unlike the secret ballot in the voting primaries, in the caucus states neighbors get to see where everyone in the neighborhood stands, literally. By the way, there are no eligibility rules, if you show up to participate in the Democratic caucus, you are a Democrat for that night. This leads to some concern that Republicans might try to “candidate shop” to choose a weaker candidate to oppose President Trump.
But that can happen in any primary. Even here in Ohio, where you have to declare a party to get a ballot, you are allowed to switch parties. Generally though, Republicans take a Republican ballot, and Democrats get their Democratic ballot. Most people don’t get hung up in trying to “rig” the general election.
The Start
So, after a year or more of debates, discussions, plans and pledges; we finally begin the process of choosing. It is “just” the beginning, the primary cycle will continue into June. And even then, there’s no guarantee that the Democratic Party will have a “winner”. There may still have to be another “caucus”, the big one at the Democratic Convention in Milwaukee in July. If you understand the Iowa caucus method, then you have a pretty good idea how a “contested” Convention might turn out. A first ballot with no “winner” would then start a “re-sort” like the gyms of Ottumwa, or Davenport, or Limoni.
The Democratic Party is raucous. “Bernie Bros”, “Yang Gangers”, nervous Biden backers, Warren planners, fresh-faced Mayor Pete followers and all the rest are fighting it out. Except of course for Mike Bloomberg, who’s buying up all of the television time. They will test each other, raising questions about policies and attacking past records. Don’t worry: they won’t reveal any secrets that the Trump Campaign didn’t know.
And by Thursday, July 16th we will have one candidate, and one mission: to end the Trump Presidency. It’s not that big a deal, just the fate of the American Republic and maybe the whole world. After all the fighting – Democrats will be one.
