Month: February 2020

Five Days

The next five days are critical for Senator Bernie Sanders.  Tomorrow’s South Carolina primary will determine whether Sanders’ current major competitor, Joe Biden, remains a viable candidate for President.  If Biden has a big win in South Carolina, he can move on.  Less than that, Biden’s funds will dry up, and his candidacy will end.

Then on Tuesday, Sanders faces the power of the “almighty dollar” in Mike Bloomberg.  How Sanders, Biden and Bloomberg fair in the seventeen state election will give everyone a more accurate view into the Democratic race. 

I know, I haven’t mentioned Warren, or Klobuchar, or Buttigieg.  I don’t see a way for them to proceed, unless Tuesday’s results are so fractured that no one is advanced.  If that is the case, then Democrats are in for a wild ride, and a divided convention.  Folks talk about Sander’s candidacy resembling George McGovern in 1972. But that fragmented result might be more like the riot-filled convention in Chicago in 1968.  

Super Stupid

The New York Times published an article this week about Democratic Party Officials using “super delegates” to stop Sanders at the convention, if he can’t win on the first ballot (NYT).   It’s a stupid thing for them to be talking about.  The election is now, and the “narrative” hasn’t been written yet.  If there is one thing that will motivate Sanders’ voters, it’s the shadow of the “DNC” trying to put its thumb on the convention scale.  Many Sanders’ supporters are convinced that happened in 2016.  Even if the Democratic leaders are doing exactly that, they need to shut-up about it now before they create a self-fulfilling prophecy of Sanders’ success.

But here’s what should happen.

The Revolution

Bernie Sanders has based had candidacy on creating a “revolution” that will carry him to the Presidency.  Sanders has been very clear:  for his programs to move forward, he will need the House and the Senate to join in.  As Angelica Schuyler sings in the musical Hamilton: “…you want a revolution?  I want a revelation!”  The revelation that Sanders need to demonstrate to the Democratic Party:  his “revolution” really exists.

A revolution requires an army of followers.  Senator Sanders has promised that he will bring a whole new cadre of voters to the polls, voters that haven’t been part of the electorate in the past.  He promises the young, the Millennials, and the disaffected.  That’s how revolutions work, and it’s what Bernie has preached for decades.

Now is his chance.  Prove the “Revolution.”  Bring this whole new constituency to the polls, and win.  If the Senator can do this, there won’t be a question about wining the nomination on the first ballot.  He will have an overwhelming majority in the convention, and the super delegates won’t have the chance to influence the outcome.

And there won’t be the fear that Sanders is the “next” George McGovern, a man who won only one state in the landslide Presidential defeat of 1972.  If there is a “revolution” then the revolutionaries will show up in November, and the loss of “Never-Trump” votes on the “right” won’t cripple Democratic candidates.  There will be a “blue tsunami” of millennial voters, new to the fight, lifting Democrats to the Presidency, and control of the Congress.

Place Your Bet

Senator Sanders is asking Democrats to go “all-in.”  He wants the Party to support his brand of Democratic-Socialism, going farther “left” then ever before.  And he’s doing it at a time of the greatest risk to American democracy:  Donald Trump.  

Senator Sanders only earns the right to place that bet, if he can bring new voters to the table.  There is no “credit” available in this game, he’s got to prove the “goods”. The proof is simple:  he either has the votes and the delegates to win on the first ballot, or he doesn’t.  If he can’t win on the first ballot, than he has failed to prove the “revolution”.  That failure would show Democrats that his gamble won’t pay off.   

Then the delegates in Milwaukee will need to make a different choice.

A Place to Eat

It’s tax time in Pataskala, Ohio: a town “15000 strong” as the signs at the city limits say.  When I moved here in 1978 Pataskala still had a rural flavor.  There was Tractor Day at the local high school, and the grain elevator had only recently closed.  But all of that is far behind us now.  I mark the end of “rural” in our town as the day McDonalds opened with the high school marching band getting out of school to play.  That was sometime in the early 1980’s.  Now the McDonalds is next to Subway, down the street from Wendy’s, Kentucky Fried Chicken, Tim Horton’s and the inevitable Taco Bell.  

But as far as food is concerned, it’s pizza that drives Pataskala – all the pizza joints in the world.  There are at least a dozen within five miles of “downtown” Pataskala:  Mama Linda’s, Pizza Hut, Donato’s, Dominos, Capuano’s, Massey’s, Little Caesar’s, Flyer’s, Pizzaroni’s, Creno’s, Jnb’s, and LuLu Mack’s.  This town may have issues, be we can sure eat pizza.

Farms to Houses

What used to be farm fields in this community are now taken up with housing developments.  And with the greater expansion of the Central Ohio area, more houses, apartments, and schools are needed to cover the burgeoning population.  We ain’t gonna be farmers anymore.

Pataskala is what social scientists would call an “exurb”.  We are far enough away from the “big city,” Columbus is twenty miles, that we aren’t quite a “suburb”.  But twenty miles is still close enough for most folks to commute to work, and Pataskala is a “bedroom” community without much industry of our own.  There are still a few farms, but the housing developments are getting ever closer.  Facebook is filled with complaining about the smell of fertilizer in the spring, and the slow paced tractors and combines on the roads in the fall.

A lot of folks moved here to enjoy “country life”.  But they want “country life” with a Kroger’s supermarket five minutes away. And, obviously, they need a pizza shop at every corner.

Big Little City

Pataskala is the twelfth largest city in Ohio (out of 260 some) – by area.  We are only slightly smaller than Youngstown, and bigger than Middletown, Springfield, Canton or Newark.  And with our increasing population comes the increased need for police.  What used to be the “village” police department where everybody “knew your name,” now consists of 22 patrolmen, detectives and senior officers.  They are spread out over almost thirty square miles, seven days a week, twenty-four hours a day.  

With more people they need more officers, and to do that, they need more money.  And they’re asking.

There are two different school districts in the city of Pataskala.  One district, Licking Heights, is entirely contained in the “city”.  The other, Southwest Licking where I spent my career, is part in Pataskala, and parts in the village of Kirkersville, and Etna, Harrison, and Liberty Townships.  Both districts are building new high schools to try to keep up with the student increases.  They’ve both asked for tax renewals:  Licking Heights approved theirs last year; Southwest Licking is on the ballot next month.  Both schools are trying to get along with roughly the same money, even as they build and open new buildings.  

Voting on Taxes

But police and school taxes are some of the few that people can actually vote on.  The Federal and State governments don’t ask when they want more taxes.  The legislatures simply raise the rates.  But local agencies often have to go directly to the people to make their case for more money, and just as often, receive the backlash and frustration of voters.  For some, if it’s the only tax they can turn down, and they do.

My mother would say, “…They’re cutting off their nose to spite their face”.  When someone needs policemen, they don’t want them to be 8.4 miles away.  And we should all want kids to go to “good” schools, both because it’s good for them, and because it makes property values go up.  But taxes are frustrating, particularly in February and March when they’re actually due. It’s easy to “take it out” on the nearest “taxer” that can be found.

But in doing so, local voters hurt their own community.  

Our Town

Pataskala has already transitioned to the “exurbs”.  But many people in town still wish it was “country”, and “country” seems to be synonymous with not paying taxes.  But, unlike pizza shops, having good schools and good police protection doesn’t automatically happen here in Pataskala.  They need support, and they cost money.  

We can argue politics in Pataskala too.  Whether it’s allowing more housing developments, or discussing where “open shooting” areas can be in the city, we are struggling over our transition to “suburb”.  What we shouldn’t do is ignore the real needs of the City we have now: needs that can only be addressed with the support of the voters. 

So Pataskala voters, support the Police income tax – it’s just ½ of one percent. It’s five more officers to protect and serve of all us.  And vote for the SWL School levy; it costs nothing more than what voters are paying now. 

It’s good for you, and better for our community.

War in the Trenches

In American History classes, World War I gets glossed over.  We talk about the failure of European alliances, the folly of war, the Russian revolution, and the American Doughboys coming to save the day.  It’s a maximum two days of class hot on the way to the Great Depression and World War II.

As teachers, we often miss the horrific changes technology brought to the battlefield. The development of the machine gun dramatically altered military tactics:  the frontal charge against the enemy, the basic attack mode since the Roman Empire, utterly failed.  The horror was it took the Generals four years and millions upon millions of dead to figure it out.

But the soldiers got it.  They dug in, parallel trench lines that stretched almost four hundred miles across Europe.  And not just the “fox hole” type shelters, these were deep trenches with “apartment” rooms dug into the sides.  Trenches that let soldiers enter the battlefield below “bullet level” as much as a half a mile behind the front line.  Trenches gave them a possibility of surviving in the “killing zone”.

There were still a hundred ways to die in the trench:  walls collapsed, artillery shells hit, clouds of poison gas drifted in.  A gung-ho new Second Lieutenant would cry “over the top” and demand an attack into “No Man’s Land” where interlocking fields of machine gun fire could sweep away an army in seconds.  Or the rains would come and flood, with the choice being enemy fire or drowning.

Camp Death

But one of the great killers of the war wasn’t bullets, or gas, or even artillery.  “Camp Death” had always been a destroyer of armies.  In the Civil War, disease was the largest cause of soldier death, not battlefields.  And while medical theory dramatically advanced in the fifty years between Civil War and World War I, the camps and trenches were still prime breeding ground for disease.

It might have started in a camp in France, or perhaps was brought over by American soldiers from Kansas.  It was called the “Spanish Flu” and ultimately spread from the battle zone to the entire world.  Over a quarter of the population of the world, from the Pacific Islands to the Arctic, became infected.  The impact on the armies was censored – but in the two years of the pandemic between fifty and one hundred million people died worldwide.  Near two percent of those who got the illness, died.

And it seemed the Spanish Flu was “designed” to target the soldiers.  While most variation of the flu killed the old and the young, the Spanish Flu triggered an immune response that was particularly severe in healthy young adults.  Their bodies own reactions to the disease would often kill them.  

The massive troop movements around the world hastened the spread of the disease.  

No Cure

There wasn’t a cure.  Since the forces on the battlefield were packed close in the trenches, the disease spread quickly through the already stressed and tired men. All the medicine of 1918 could do was treat the symptoms.  Sick soldiers were moved to “camps” where they lived or died, but definitely spread the disease even farther.  US combat deaths in World War I were around 53,000.  Another 45,000 died of the flu.

There isn’t a cure for the “flu” today, though there are preventative vaccines that work against common strains.  But the flu-like disease that is emanating from China, the “corona-virus,” has no vaccine, no preventative.  Looking at the current statistics, it seems to have a similar fatality rate, about 2%.  And, like the pandemic of 1918, it seems to be spreading.  From China, to South Korea, Iran, Iraq, and Italy:  it’s moving around the world.

Now is the Time

There is no way to stop it.   We can hide behind our borders, but the inter-connections of today’s world means that the “corona-virus” will arrive in the United States.  Besides, it’s already here, locked in hospitals in Omaha and on Air Force bases.  And it will almost assuredly leak out. 

Wall Street sees the possibilities.  The market’s falling because they know that world trade will be down.  If folks can’t go to work in Chinese factories, then production will fall.  And China is just the start.

There’s no reason to panic, but we need to prepare.  And that’s what we ask our government, our leaders, to do.  Prepare our country for what we will need to do to protect ourselves, to care for the ill, and to produce the drugs to prevent this illness.  So far, the United States hasn’t even found an effective test to see if someone is infected.  

It will take coordination, and folks who know what’s going on regardless of their loyalty to the Trump Administration.  This is not the time to cut the Centers for Disease Control, nor is it time to reduce the staff of the Pandemic Crisis Team.  And it certainly isn’t the time for the President to say; “…it’s all going to be OK by April”.  He doesn’t know that, and neither does anyone else.

I was born in 1956, the third child of World War II veterans (yep, both Dad and Mom served).   That officially makes me a “Baby Boomer,” that explosive generation of children born after the war, created out of the joy of surviving world cataclysm.  There were so many of us that we created whole new schools, and towns, and traditions.  Now we are reaching the other end of our lives, and we are creating whole new problems.  Health care, eldercare and traditional retirement systems are stretched to the breaking point with our geriatric needs.

I was a career public school teacher, serving students from sixth through twelfth grades.  I taught social studies:  history, government, geography, economics, and current events.  So I know well the differences between economic and governmental systems.  I can readily define capitalism, socialism and communism; and know they are not the same as democracies, dictatorships, monarchies and anarchies.

Bernie’s a Socialist

I know when Bernie Sanders says he is a socialist, it absolutely is not the same thing as saying he is a Communist.  Bernie isn’t even a complete socialist. He wants the government to take over health care, just like the government took over the postal service, the highway systems, and public education.  He sees health care as a basic human right that the government needs to guarantee.  Sure that’s a socialistic idea, just like the idea of Thomas Jefferson to provide public education in the Northwest Ordinance back in 1784.

But Bernie doesn’t want to take control of all industries.  He’s not advocating “nationalization” of the steel industry, or the banking industry, or the other pillars of the American capitalist tradition.  He is demanding that we take more control of the impacts of those industries and regulate them, particularly when it comes to what they do to our workers, and our environment.  

Corporate Welfare

He has a point.  Wal-Mart is only able to pay such low wages with government support.  Their “living wage” only exists because their workers can turn to government assistance to supplement their salaries and their needs.  In essence, it is our government that supports Wal-Mart, and Amazon, and many other huge corporations that depend on minimum wage labor.  That’s what Sanders means when he talks about America as a “corporate socialist” state.  The corporations get the government breaks, instead of the workers.

And how can you argue with Bernie about the incredible disparity of wealth in our nation? 1% of Americans own 40% of the wealth (the Hill). Warren Buffet, fourth wealthiest man in the world with a estimated worth of $85 Billion, paid a 17% tax rate, his secretary who makes $60000 paid 30% (Stanford).  Mr. Buffet readily acknowledges that it’s not fair, or right.  Bernie Sanders wants to do something about it.  Maybe that’s “socialistic” but it’s also common sense.

Cold War

So why then are so many Boomers panicked by the possibility of a Bernie candidacy?  Why are there “never Trumpers” reconsidering their stand, perhaps even swallowing their morals and convictions to re-elect the President?  

“Boomers” grew up in the Cold War.  We hid from nuclear attack in the Cuban Missile Crisis.  I remember lining up in the hall in first grade, feet against the wall, head between our knees, waiting for the flash.  We first graders knew we’d be OK, we were “in the position,” but the teachers standing around behind us weren’t going to make it.

“Boomers” watched Khrushchev pound his shoe on the table at the United Nations, and desperate Germans shot as they tried to climb the wall.  We fought war after war against “Communism,” in Korea, in Vietnam, and in countless “insurgencies” throughout the world.  And we were indoctrinated in school that “COMMUNISM” was just an extension of “SOCIALISM”.  So it should be no surprise that a Socialist running for President brings up all sorts of vague memories of Civil Defense Shelters and Bert the Turtle of “Duck and Cover”.

Conflation

It probably doesn’t help that Senator Sanders seems willing to see the “good” in Communist regimes.  He’s talked about the increase in literacy under Castro in Cuba, and the intelligence and sincerity of the Nicaraguan revolutionaries.  But Sanders isn’t looking to make the United States a Cuba, or a Venezuela.  Sanders looks to models like Denmark, or Sweden, or the healthcare plan of that den of socialist inequities, Canada.  He sees solutions to American problems that are “socialistic” without embracing all-encompassing SOCIALISM.

It’s not surprising that Sanders finds his greatest base of support in young people.  The post-Cold War generation hasn’t spent their lives being indoctrinated into the “evils” of “ISM”.   Communism was an historic relic when they went to school.  They didn’t even learn about Communism, educators changed it to a “Command Economy”.  That paranoia is left to us Boomers.

We have a left a legacy of government debt and environmental catastrophe.  Let’s hope our last spasm of “power”, driven by our elementary school indoctrination, won’t be to re-elect Donald Trump in the White House out of outdated fear.  Bernie shouldn’t make us “duck and cover”. 

The Beatles, of course

Buying the Farm

Pete Buttigieg made the comment in the Las Vegas debates.  After “Super Tuesday,” he said, Democrats may be faced with a choice between Mike who wants to “buy the party,” and Bernie that wants to “burn it down”.  Mike Bloomberg has spent close to half a billion dollars to win the Democratic nomination.  That’s more than all the other candidates, Democratic or Republican, have spent in this election cycle.  

No one will “buy” Mike Bloomberg with campaign contributions.  He’s bought himself, and he’s trying to buy the rest of us.

The rest of the Democratic candidates depend on others to raise the funds to finance their campaigns.  Some, like Bernie and Elizabeth Warren, claim that they only take individual small contributions.  They try to hammer other candidates, notably Joe Biden and Pete Buttigieg, for taking donations from “billionaires,” particularly billionaires in “wine caves”.   But no “billionaire” is putting their “billions” into anyone’s campaign, other than Mayor Bloomberg and Tom Steyer.

On March 3^rd we will get to see if Bloomberg’s millions can “buy” an election.  That will be the first time his name will be on the ballot, and since it’s “Super Tuesday” with seventeen state primaries up for grabs, we’ll see.  Bloomberg has placed a huge bet, close to $400 million, that he can change the Democratic narrative.  One day will tell the tale.

We will get a “field test” of the money strategy this Saturday in South Carolina.  Tom Steyer has spent $20 million in that state alone to try to make a dent.  Steyer is no Bloomberg, but we should get some idea of the impact of mass spending. We will see if the adage “if a little money is good, a lot of money is better” is valid when it comes to votes.

Amounts are Relative

Money has always been important in politics.  In the early 1980’s I was a twenty-four year old campaign manager trying to get my candidate elected to city council. We had a $15000 campaign budget.  There was an offer from a member of Cincinnati’s “elite”:  the candidate would come have a “talk” and a $10,000 check would conclude the discussion. $10,000 would more than double our budget, letting us go “on the air” with commercials. The problem we (the candidate and I) had was when over half of your campaign funds comes from a single source, how does that person NOT control what you do?  We never got the money.  We didn’t win the council race either.

In one of our famous “family” discussions this weekend, we talked about how influential money was.  We were talking about what happens if there is a “brokered” Democratic Convention, with no one candidate having a majority of the votes.  The younger end of the table was convinced that the “money” would step in and stop Bernie Sanders.  They went on to say that when it happened, it would fragment the party so badly that it would guarantee Trump’s re-election.  

Berne Down the House

If Bernie doesn’t have a majority going into the convention, it would surprise me if other candidates don’t try to take the nomination.  After all, that is the process:  there is a “first” vote, with all delegates locked into their pledge for their candidate, and the so-called “super delegates” not allowed to vote at all.  If a candidate wins a majority on that first vote, then they are the Democratic nominee for President.

But if one candidate doesn’t win, then the rules change.  Delegates are allowed to move from their “pledged” position and choose a different candidate.  The “super delegates,” who represent the structure of the Democratic Party, can now add their votes, approximately another 500 our of the over 4000 delegate voters.  It is called a brokered convention.

Back Before Elvis

The last time that happened was 1952.  The Democrats were replacing Harry Truman, who chose not to run for a third term as President.  Illinois Governor Adlai Stevenson was able to grasp the nomination from Tennessee Senator Estes Kefauver.  Kefauver led the first ballot, but Stevenson’s candidacy took hold on the second vote.  It took three votes for him to reach the majority.

The Republicans had a brokered convention as well that year.   While General Eisenhower ended up with the nomination, he wasn’t even the only General in the running.  Douglas MacArthur was there, as well as Senator Bob Taft from Ohio.   Eisenhower was close on the first vote, and after some wheeling and dealing, was declared the unanimous choice before a second vote was officially taken.

But 1952 was a long time ago.  

Whether a political party could survive the results of a brokered convention today is questionable.  But if Bernie doesn’t win the Democratic nomination outright, the machinations against him won’t necessarily be about money.  There are many older and more institutional Democrats who are afraid of the electoral outcome of running an avowed socialist for President.  For Bernie to win the Presidency, he’s going to have to show that his “revolution”, all of the new votes he has for the party, are there.  

The way for him to do that is to win the nomination outright.  If he can’t then he lends credence to the argument that a Sanders candidacy will lead the Democrats to another historic outcome:  the McGovern debacle of 1972.  Bernie needs to prove “the revolution” on Super Tuesday, or Democrats face a fractious spring. 

For great information on campaign donations – check this site –

Open Secrets – Contribution Information

The DNI

The acting Director of National Intelligence (DNI), Joseph McGuire was just fired by President Trump.  The “proximate cause” of his removal:  testimony from his office to the House Intelligence Committee that Russian Intelligence is interfering in the 2020 US election process.  But the damning statement that got him fired:  the Russians are supporting Donald Trump for President.

Now this isn’t the first time that McGuire’s honesty has gotten him in trouble.  You might remember him from his very first testimony about the “whistleblower”.  He appeared before Adam Schiff’s committee last September, and gave very open and forthright statements about the sincerity of the whistleblower’s report.  Listening to it then, it was surprising to hear someone from the Trump Administration be so honest.  I guess that truthfulness finally caught up with him.

The 400 Pound Man

Nothing about this should be a surprise.  The President hasn’t taken any action to convince the Russian government to stay out of the 2020 elections.  In fact, Mr. Trump has “covered” for Russia’s 2016 actions, consistently suggesting that maybe somebody else was responsible.  And that wasn’t just the “400 pound guy in his parents’ basement” statement from the debate.  In the past couple of weeks, the President has continued to investigate the bogus CrowdStrike/Ukraine theory as if it were for real, and not just Russian Intelligence disinformation.  He sent Giuliani back to Ukraine, and his Attorney General mandated that the US Attorney for the Eastern District of New York take on an investigation.

By the way, McGuire also testified that Russian Intelligence might be supporting Bernie Sanders, following Trump’s cue that a Sanders nomination would be his best chance of re-election.  Bernie’s comment was succinct:  Russia should stay out of our elections.  But Sanders also used this to help cover the totally inappropriate actions of some of his “Bernie Bro” followers in Nevada.  Maybe the Russians did it.

Another Fox Newsie

So McGuire is gone, and Richard Grenell, former Fox News commentator and Trump’s Ambassador to Germany is taking over, at least temporarily.  Grenell knows nothing, zero, nada, bupkis, about the intelligence world.  But he is a loyal follower of the President.  More insidious than Grenell is the appointment of “Kash” Patel as his senior advisor.  Patel is a former aide to Republican Congressman Devin Nunes, and is one of those instrumental in smearing the Russia probe and Mueller Report.  He is the aid that had long phone conversations with Lev Parnas, the indicted Giuliani helper.  His avowed job now is to “root out Deep State and Obama operatives” from the intelligence agencies. 

The “blood letting” in the intelligence community will continue.

The “deconstruction” of the intelligence structure will mean that real information; information needed to make correct decisions about international crises, won’t be available.  It means that when analysts have information that they know the President doesn’t want to hear, they won’t share it. 

And it isn’t just in the intelligence agencies.  Attorney General Barr has made it clear to the Justice Department that he won’t tolerate negative actions towards the administration.  And Secretary Pompeo has hollowed out the senior staff of the State Department. 

The ghost of Steve Bannon still haunts the White House.

True Believers

America knows Donald Trump.  We know that he believes that his “gut” decisions are right. Mr. Trump has his own fantastical view of the government and the world.  It’s not that he is lying to us; he truly believes his lies are true.

What seems even sadder is that the Republican leaders around him know better, but still lie.  National Security Advisor Robert O’Brien spent Sunday morning trying to convince the world that he doesn’t “know” that Russia is backing Trump.  Republican Senators  “rally to the President,” knowing full well that in doing so they are fulfilling Russian intelligence objectives.  They don’t believe the lies, but they are still lying.

They do it to protect themselves from the wrath of the President.  Trump has made it clear:  cross him, and face the consequences.  Ask McGuire, or Vindman, or any one of many Republican politicians burned by the President.  But those Senators know the truth, and continue to tell lies.  They think that their personal political futures are more important than the truth.  They are telling us:

Don’t believe your lying eyes.

The Sausage Factory

The debate in Las Vegas on Wednesday was a night of attacks and retorts.  The whole field went after Mike Bloomberg, but Bernie Sanders got his fair share of shots as well.  And then there was the “in-fighting,” as Buttigieg went after Klobuchar, who responded in kind.

But after “the sausage is made” and all the dust settles; there will be a Democratic candidate. He or she will face a single task:  to end the Presidency of Donald John Trump, impeached President of the United States.  It won’t be easy.

Predicting how any Democratic candidate will fair in November depends on what you believe about the electorate of the United States in 2020.  And it’s not just about winning the most votes; as we discovered in 2016 that doesn’t necessarily result in winning the Presidency.  It’s about winning the most electoral votes.

Trump Wins all Ties  

There’s no such thing as a “winning” tie.  If the Electoral College doesn’t settle the Presidency, the “tie-breaker” is the House of Representatives.  Democrats might initially be satisfied with that, but in an Electoral College tiebreaker, the House votes by state delegation, each state getting one vote.  Even though Democrats control the House, if it’s a state-by-state vote, Republicans control 26 states, Democrats 23, with Pennsylvania tied (UVA).

So whichever candidate Democrats choose, he or she needs to be able to win enough states to win the Electoral College outright.

There are four “models” of the 2020 electorate that Democrats are examining.  Pick your model, and that will direct your choice of the Democratic candidate with the best chance to beat Donald Trump.  Choose the wrong model, and it’s four more years, and perhaps and end to the American Republic, as we know it.  

The Moderate Model

The “moderates” running for the Democratic nomination believe their model is the strongest path to the White House.  Take the voting turnout of 2016, with its Democratic majority of over three million votes.  Add to that the disaffected Republicans, the “Never-Trumpers” and suburban women who are turned off by the President.  And finally, juice the Democratic turnout, well aware that a low turnout model re-elects the President.

Add all of that together, and the numbers should be overwhelming enough that even in critical states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, the Democrat should win.  Add to that the possibility of reversing the razor thin 2016 Trump margins in Florida and North Carolina, and a Democrat should win the Electoral College by a comfortable margin (Politico).

The Moderate model depends on two factors that are in question.  Will there really be a “disaffected crossover” vote, or will those voters who “held their nose” and voted for Trump in 2016 do the same thing again?  And perhaps more importantly, is there a moderate candidate that can excite the Democratic base, generally more liberal, to come out and vote?  More specifically can any of the current moderates get African-American voters to come out and vote at the 2008, Barack Obama level of 65% turnout?  Or will African-American voters remain at the 2016, Hillary Clinton level of 59.6%?

It’s a very traditional Democratic approach to the general election.  Get your base out, and move to the ideological middle to pick up voters in the center.  

The Bernie Model

Clearly Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren cannot depend on the “moderate model” to work for them.  Their ideological stands on the left, with Warren following the Social-Democrat line, and Sanders just declaring himself an avowed “socialist”, will chase the middle to Trump.  Even the avowed “Never-Trumpers”, sworn to vote against the President, may find themselves either sitting out the election, or writing in a symbolic third party.  

The Bernie Model depends on getting workers to back the more extreme ideas of Medicare for All and a high minimum wage.  It also counts on exciting an entirely new base of voters who have failed to come out in the past.  Voters 18 to 29 years old represent a huge untapped voting block.  In 2016 only 46% of them actually voted, as compared to a national turnout of 61% of all people eligible to vote.  And voters in that age group now represent 31% of the total possible vote, meaning that over 15% of young people who could be part of the total vote sat out the 2016 election (Forbes).

That 15% sitting “on the sidelines” is the force that Sanders believes he can mobilize to re-write the Democratic path to the Presidency.  And in elections as narrowly won as was 2016, that 15% is a game-changer.  The question to ask, though:  is Sanders, or Warren, powerful enough motivation to overcome a half-century of low voter turnout in the youngest voting set.  Even after getting the Presidential vote in 1971, the young vote has never gotten above 45% (Census).   The “Bernie Model” is dependent on them voting at the highest levels, where “old people,” those over 65, vote:  near 70%.

The Trump Model

The Trump campaign has its own difficulties in finding a path back to the White House.  The improbable “confluence of events” that triggered the electoral victory of 2016 is difficult to replicate.  Trump has the highest negative ratings of any candidate for President this election cycle.  In 2016 Hillary Clinton’s negatives matched his.  This is one of the reasons that Trump was so focused on damaging Joe Biden in the Ukraine scandal:  Trump can’t really get much higher negatives, but Biden’s candidacy had to be damaged.  Impeachment was a cost that Trump was willing to accept to do so.

Trump has to mobilize his base and get them to the polls, something that is likely anyway.  His campaign is then looking to their “hidden majority,” voters who publicly disavow the President, but in the secrecy of the voting booth, still mark down his name.  They believe that this “hidden” group doesn’t appear in public polling, because those folks won’t admit in the open that the support the President.  But election results in 2016 and 2018 don’t seem to support that conclusion.

The Trump campaign isn’t worried about the popular vote.  California, New York and the other “blue” states are giveaways.  Trump is targeted on the swing states that won him the election in 2016.  And he got mixed news today about that problem, as current polling shows him losing to almost any Democrat in Michigan and Pennsylvania, but beating almost all of them in Wisconsin (Politico).  This strategy also depends on his “firewall” of winning Florida, Arizona, and North Carolina as well.

Polling Theory

Then there is the final theory, that Trump has so disaffected the entire nation that literally any Democrat, from Sanders to Bloomberg, can win.  It is the one that every Democrat hopes in their heart is true, and one that would lead to a Democratic sweep of the Presidency, House and Senate.  And there are plenty of polls to back it up, not just nationally, but state-by-state. Real Clear Politics shows Sanders, Biden and Bloomberg all besting Trump in Florida.

No Democrat can trust in this theory though, there’s too much at stake to just assume any Democrat can best Trump.  We all believed that on November 8^th, 2016.  We all woke up to a new reality on November 9^th, and no one wants to do that again.  So choose your “model” and pick your candidate.  We are all rolling the dice.

The Battle on the Strip

The sign on the Strip read “DEMOCRATS DEBATE.”  It should have said the first “HEAVYWEIGHT THRILLER IN VEGAS” as five of the six candidates walked on stage primed to battle.  The one candidate not ready for the “main ring” was Mike Bloomberg, who seemed annoyed, unprepared, and disdainful of the other candidates, all of who were lined up ready to jump him from the top rope.

Hard to imagine Bloomberg didn’t prepare, but he wasn’t.  It’s not that his staff isn’t “expert” enough to know what was coming, they’re the best money can buy; but the candidate himself just hasn’t been in the spotlight enough to know.  Like any athletic event, there is nothing like the standing actual “ring” to prepare for the competition.  Mike wasn’t ready on Wednesday; even his billions didn’t buy experience.  

Don’t expect that he’ll stay muddled.  While Bloomberg doesn’t ever look to be an “outstanding” debater, he will improve.

Scoring the Bout

As far as the other candidates are concerned, Senator Sanders seemed in a “tough” mood.  He took his fair share of shots from the others as well (though only about half of what Bloomberg got) but Bernie always came back to – we’ve got to change, and we’ve got to change everything:  join the revolution or join the billionaires.

Senator Warren attacked Bloomberg, and defended women both herself and Senator Klobuchar.  She also shied away from any attacks on Bernie. Warren, as usual, had an answer for every question.  It’s hard to judge whether she got all the attention from the moderators, or they simply let control of the discussion slip into her hands.

Joe Biden had has best night yet – perhaps his desperate electoral situation is focusing his skills.  The obvious contrast of Biden and Bloomberg may well put the former Vice President back in the hunt for the nomination.  Bloomberg’s media campaign has influenced a lot of voters, but his tentative and haughty performance in Vegas might just put Biden in play for Nevada, and more importantly, South Carolina.

Amy Klobuchar had another strong debate, making her case as a strong Presidential performer.  While it’s hard to see her path to the nomination, both financially and electorally, she’s demonstrating that she belongs.

Player or Referee

And Mayor Pete Buttigieg fell into a different role in the debate. Tom Steyer seemed to be the candidate/moderator of the last debate, directing the discussion back to the core issue of defeating Trump.  Thursday, Steyer was absence from the stage, and Mayor Pete seemed to take on the “Greek Chorus” role.  His statement, burn it down (Sanders) or buy it (Bloomberg) was supposed to leave “Pete” as the only remaining choice.  I don’t think it achieved that goal, but it did present Democratic voters with some stark choices.

Overall rankings:  Klobuchar, Biden, Warren, Buttigieg, and Sanders, with Mayor Bloomberg coming in last with a rookie performance.  Tune in again in South Carolina.

On the Under Card

But the debate wasn’t the only news Wednesday.

Richard Grenell, avowed Trump loyalist, Fox contributor and Ambassador to Germany has been appointed acting Director of National Intelligence.  Grenell has no intelligence background at all, and retains his Ambassadorship as well.  

While he is only an acting appointee, and is unlikely to receive the permanent appointment due to the Senate on March 11^th, it seems that the President is making another statement about the value of the intelligence services.   In light of the impeachment and the whistleblower report, Mr. Trump is showing his disapproval of the intelligence community, a Presidential attitude that goes back to the Intelligence briefing on the Steele Dossier in January of 2017, before Trump even took office.

And speaking of Russia, Julian Assange, founder of Wikileaks, is claiming that former Congressman Dana Rohrabacher offered him a Presidential pardon if he would deny Russian involvement in the stolen Democratic National Committee emails.  While Rohrabacher was in the House, he was nicknamed “the Congressman from Russia” for his undying support for the Russian side on every issue.

If Assange was really offered a Presidential pardon it would be a huge story in American politics.  But the reality is, Assange is willing to say anything, true of false, to avoid extradition from the United Kingdom to American courts.  And while Assange has a willing following in the United States, it isn’t likely that this story will gain much traction.  Both Assange and Rohrabacher could also be tools of Russian disinformation.

President Trump has already distanced himself from the story and former Congressman Rohrabacher, saying, “I hardly knew him”.

Of Pots and Kettles

And finally, Acting Chief of Staff and “man no longer allowed in the White House press room” Mick Mulvaney complained that Democrats are unconcerned about the growing US deficit.  It’s what my mother would have called, “the pot calling the kettle black,” as Mulvaney not only wrote the Trump budgets that increased the debt by trillions of dollars as Director of the Office of Management and Budget, but was a “deficit hawk” as a Freedom Caucus Congressman in his previous career.  

And that was only Wednesday.

“…He (the President) shall have power to grant reprieves and pardons for offenses against the United States, except in cases of impeachment.” – Article 2, Section 2, Constitution of the United States

The Sovereign

When President Trump says he has “the power of Article II,” that lets him do almost anything, it sounds like he is claiming to be a king.  But there is one particular area where he is right.  The United States Constitution grants the President the ultimate sovereign power of reprieve and pardon.  He can, without check or balance from any other branch of the government, pardon anyone from a Federal crime, or forgive a penalty.

The “pardon power” was added into the Constitution by the Founding Fathers because they felt there needed to be a way to address inevitable injustices that might occur in the Court system.  They also knew there might be times when, for the good of the nation, it would be necessary to forgive offenses.  And there was, of course, the ultimate check of Congressional impeachment and removal, should a President take the pardon power too far

Forgive and Move On

George Washington used the pardon first to forgive the farmers of Western Pennsylvania for the Whiskey Rebellion.  The Federal government issued a tax on whiskey production, one of the main sources of income for the frontier settlers.  The farmers rebelled, refused to pay the tax and organized an armed insurrection.   President Washington led an army west to put down the rebellion.

The rebels dissolved.  There was no battle, but twenty farmers were eventually arrested.  With the rebellion put down, and the taxation power of the Federal government asserted, there was no need for further punishment.  Washington pardoned the remaining offenders.

John Adams pardoned Revolutionary War deserters. Andrew Johnson pardoned Confederate veterans of the Civil War.  Jimmy Carter pardoned draft dodgers and deserters from Vietnam.  Gerald Ford pardoned former President Richard Nixon.  The pardon power was used to resolve national issues so the nation could move forward.  To quote President Ford after Watergate, it allowed the nation to move on, its “…long national nightmare” over.

Injustice?

But the pardon power has also been used to “right” individual injustices, some with much controversy.  President HW Bush pardoned former Defense Secretary Casper Weinberger, convicted of offenses in the Iran-Contra Affair.  Bill Clinton pardoned Marc Rich, a convicted tax evader whose wife donated to the Clinton library.  And President Warren Harding pardoned socialist Eugene Debs, convicted of violating the “treasonous speech” laws of World War I, and then invited him to drop by the White House.

So the President has unlimited powers of pardon and reprieve.  

Like Trump

Yesterday President Donald Trump pardoned or commuted the sentences of eleven Americans.  It seems like this President takes these actions almost on a whim.  But Mr. Trump chooses at least some of his pardon recipients by looking in the mirror.  If they have done something that Trump himself might have done; their chances of getting Presidential “grace” seems to be heightened.  Even more if he knows them from TV.

The List

• Former Democratic Governor Rob Blagojevich was convicted of trying to sell a US Senate seat to the highest bidder.  After Barack Obama was elected President, leaving his Illinois seat vacant, the Governor had the power to fill it. Blagojevich openly placed the seat up to the highest bidder, and was ultimately sentenced to fourteen years in Federal prison.  It probably helped Blagojevich’s case that he had been a contestant on The Apprentice, and that the Federal Prosecutor who convicted him is now former FBI Director James Comey’s attorney.

• Former NFL football team owner Eddie DeBartolo was convicted of trying to bribe Louisiana’s governor for a casino license.  Though he never went to prison, he was fined $1 million, and banned from the NFL.  

• Former New York City Police Commissioner and close associate of Rudy Giuliani, Bernie Kerik pled guilty to eight counts of tax evasion and lying to White House officials while being vetted for Secretary of Homeland Security. 

• Michael Milken was convicted of securities fraud and conspiracy as the “junk bond king” of Wall Street in the 1980’s.  

• Paul Pogue, a Texas construction executive, was convicted of income tax evasion.  

• David Safarin, a top government procurement official, was convicted of obstruction of justice and making false statements in the Abramoff Congressional scandal (NYT).

Selling government influence, lying to Federal officials, evading taxes, bribing government officials:  all are possible charges against a President who is going to extremes to protect his past business practices.  Perhaps he is softening the American people up, trying to change their attitude about what is “wrong” or “right” or “just doing business”.  This all from a President who wonders why American businesses are put at a “disadvantage” by being prohibited from bribing foreign officials (The Hill).

Get Ready

Or, the President is just preparing the ground for pardons that protect him.  Roger Stone will be sentenced next week.  Whether Judge Jackson accepts the current Federal recommendation of three to four years, or the original seven to nine years, or makes some other decision, Stone will likely join his old friend Paul Manafort in prison.  And Mike Flynn has yet to appear for sentencing, facing a judge who asked why his actions weren’t treason.

Stone, Manafort, and Flynn all are directly involved in the Trump campaigns interactions with the Russians during the 2016 campaign.  And they are all getting older, and want out or to avoid jail, NOW.  If the President won’t pardon them, Federal prosecutors may entice them to turn “state’s evidence” against him.

Don’t be surprised if Mr. Trump decides that the “injustice” of the “Russia hoax” investigation has gone far enough, and pardons all three.  Who’s going to stop him, Congress? The US Senate has already ruled:  the President can do anything, and it’s OK.

The Countdown

There are 269 days to the November election, and 337 days until the Inauguration in 2021.  It’s hard to imagine what will happen in the next few months, and questions certainly loom large.  

• Can the Democratic Party find a candidate they can unite behind?
• Will the campaigns be so distorted by social media manipulation that Americans will be unable to make a valid choice?  
• Will the actual election counting be somehow altered?
• If President Trump loses, what damage will he do in the last two months in office?
• Will Donald Trump attempt to subvert actual losing results and remain in office anyway?
• And, most importantly, if somehow Donald Trump wins a second term, what can be done to protect the country from losing our democracy?

These questions threaten the very fabric of the American Republic.  But should it all fall “into place” for the Democrats, and they recognize that defeating Donald Trump is more important than the much smaller ideological spaces from Bloomberg to Bernie and unite together, then a Democrat will take office in 337 days.  And what should she do?

Whoever Wins

There are two Democratic candidates who have made a fundamental issue of waking up on that first day in office.  Amy Klobuchar and Pete Buttigieg have both campaigned on not just beating Donald Trump, but on what they would do when dawn breaks on that “new” America.  But whoever wins, here’s my list of what needs to be done.

Before the new President even takes office, she will demonstrate her awareness of the damage done by Donald Trump’s nepotism, by not hiring any family members for executive jobs, other than their spouse as the “first whatever”.  The President will pledge to extend existing nepotism laws to include unpaid White House staff positions.  What was a “norm” that could be violated now must be a regulation.

Justice Department

Day One should begin in the place where our democracy is most threatened.  It should begin with defending the rights of citizens, and the rule of law.  The President should travel to the Justice Department with the new Attorney General, and present an agenda unraveling the current subverting of our justice system.

In Federal Courts, the position of the Government of the United States in many cases will be reversed.   Regarding Congressional subpoenas, the Government will now stand for enforcing those orders instead of obstructing them.  On the Affordable Care Act, the Government will support the plan instead of trying to remove it.  

On immigrants at the Southern Border, the United States will now enforce the treaty obligations already agreed to, and refugees will be treated according to the United Nations conventions.  And on lawsuits about LGBTQI rights, the United States needs to be on the side of those that need the most protection.

Attorney General 

The Attorney General will review all previous Presidential Pardons for “Presidential corrupt intent”.   Those found to be made to avoid potential Presidential criminal prosecution would immediately be appealed to the Federal Courts.  Yes, this will create a new standard for Executive pardons, but the Founding Fathers did not intend this power to serve as a shield for Presidential corruption.  The case needs to be made that the 
“presumption of reasonable intent” standard for Presidential pardons no longer applies.

The AG will also recommend to the Congress enabling legislation to enforce the emoluments clause of the Constitution, giving the Supreme Court “teeth” to enforce those laws against a future President.  The “norms” of the past are no longer enough.

And the President and the Attorney General must pledge, much as President Gerald Ford and his General Edward Levi did, that a wall will separate the President from the Justice Department, and that political influence will be stopped.  In addition, both will agree to take legislative action to create laws instead of “norms” to enforce that separation.

Environment

The President then will walk along the National Mall.  Along the way, she will stop at the National Archives to view the original Constitution, and rededicate herself to document she has sworn to serve and protect.  She will then proceed to the headquarters of the Environmental Protection Agency.  Alongside her will be the new EPA Administrator, along with the Secretaries of Energy, Housing and Urban Development and Treasury, the new Democratic Majority Leader of the Senate and the Democratic Speaker of the House.  All of them will walk to demonstrate their dedication to changing US climate change policy.  

Upon reaching the EPA, the President will announce the reinstatement of pollution enforcement regulations removed by the Trump Administration.  The Energy Secretary will announce an energy alternative initiative, focusing on increasing solar and wind power.  The Treasury Secretary will add substantial tax incentives with the intent of creating residences with net zero carbon footprints.  In addition, the President will announce that the United States will rejoin the Paris Accord, and reassert the carbon emission standards established by the Obama Administration.  

Along with the Speaker and the Majority Leader, the President will also announce an initiative designed to rebuild the water and sewer infrastructure in America’s cities.  Top priority will be Flint, Newark, Fort Lauderdale and other cities in environmental crisis from aging and failing pipelines.

And that’s all before lunch.

Homeland Security

Back at the White House, the President will meet with the new Homeland Security Secretary.  They will announce that the Department will begin a highest priority program to reunite all children separated from their parents.  If the parents are outside the United States, either the children can be returned to them, or they will be brought to the children.  

In addition, the Secretary will announce a new enforcement protocol for ICE.  They will concentrate on removing illegal immigrants from the United States who have committed felonies beyond those of illegal border crossing and avoidance.  Highest priority will be placed on the most serious felonies, and ICE will no longer target those whose only offense is illegal border crossings.

And Homeland Security will announce a new initiative towards securing the election process in the United States.  While the electoral process will remain under state control, the Department will develop protocols to protect them from domestic or foreign interference.

Oh, and we will stop building “the Wall”.

Press Secretary

The White House Press Secretary will hold a press conference in the White House pressroom on day one in the White House.  That will begin a press policy of daily formal interaction with the press, ending the practice of “helicopter press gaggles”.  While the Press Secretary is speaking, the President herself will step in, and pledge to meet with the press on a regular basis, at least monthly, as well as granting greater White House personnel access to the press. 

Vice President 

The Vice President will be tasked with reviewing all the actions of the Trump Administration, particularly all of the Executive Orders issued by President Trump.  He or she will then recommend to the President what orders need to be repealed or altered, and what replacements need to be made.  The review and recommendations need to be concluded in the first thirty days of the Administration.

And the day will conclude with a cabinet meeting, where the President will discuss how the United States can regain its place of trust in the world.

And that’s just on Day One.

Saturday Night Massacre

Since the Watergate era, America knows how to investigate our leaders.  The Independent Counsels in Watergate, Archibald Cox and Leon Jaworski, established the high level of competence and honor we expected in the office.  They faced the ultimate pressure from the President of the United States, and stood up to it.  Cox was fired in the process, but, to paraphrase Obi Wan Konobi in Star Wars, “when he struck him down, he became more powerful than he could possibly imagine”.  The Saturday Night Massacre became a key item in Nixon’s impeachment.

Independent counsels investigated alleged drug use of the White House Chief of Staff of Carter, and other possible infractions by the Labor Secretary, Attorney General, Chief of Staff and Solicitor General under Reagan.  Not all investigations resulted in charges, and the Independent Counsel’s office created an “air” of impartiality when investigating those close to power.  

Iran-Contra

After Watergate, the next major investigation by the Independent Counsel was about the Iran-Contra affair.  Members of the Reagan Administration were selling US military equipment to Iran despite a law embargoing those sales, and then using the profits to illegally finance a Contra insurgency against the elected government in Nicaragua.  Independent Counsel Stephen Walsh ultimately indicted fourteen officials, including the Secretary of Defense and the National Security Advisor.  Eleven were convicted.  

In an odd twist, those who were actually sentenced to prison were pardoned by then President George HW Bush, at the strong recommendation of his Attorney General, William Barr.  That is the same Barr who now serves as President Trump’s Attorney General, twenty-eight years later.

Blue Dress

Perhaps the best-known Independent Counsel was Judge Kenneth Starr, whose four and a half year investigation of Bill Clinton resulted in the President’s impeachment.  Clinton also ultimately gave up his law license in a plea agreement to avoid perjury charges.

And after Starr’s interminable investigations, from Whitewater real estate deals to “bimbo eruptions” and finally Monica Lewinsky, Congress changed the Independent Counsel Law.  The key change was in the word “independent”, the new “Special” Counsel Law put the office directly under control of the Attorney General, making it much easier to control the Counsel’s action. 

The Mueller Report

And that was former FBI Director Robert Mueller’s position when he investigated the Trump Campaign-Russian connections.  Unlike Cox, Jaworski, Walsh and Starr, Mueller was restricted in the areas he could investigate and controlled by either Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein, or, after his appointment, Attorney General William Barr.

This Attorney General has made it a point to “protect” his President.  Trump’s impeachment, over the use of Federal funds to get political help from the Ukraine, was completely ignored by the Justice Department.  They “passed” on the “Whistleblower’s Report”, essentially saying, “there’s nothing to see here, move along”.

Hiding in the Hinterlands

But now Attorney General Barr has found a way to avoid Washington DC all together.  Instead of appointing a Special Counsel, Barr is shipping out investigations to handpicked US Attorneys throughout the nation.  John Durham, US Attorney for Connecticut is tasked with re-investigating the Russia investigation.  Durham was a “safe” choice in previous sensitive investigations, including absolving the CIA of any wrong doing in the torturing and deaths of prisoners at “black sites” after 9-11. 

The Attorney General also arranged the removal of the US Attorney for Washington, DC.  Jessica Liu was asked to resign in order to become Deputy Treasury Secretary.  After her resignation, her Treasury appointment was cancelled.  Barr then appointed one of his closest advisors, Timothy Shea, to the job.  

This shuffle seems to be about the sentencing of two Trump associates, Roger Stone and Michael Flynn.  The four Justice Department lawyers in the Stone case resigned from the case rather than accept Barr’s demand that the Department sentencing guidelines be ignored.  And the Flynn case has gone from a six months sentencing recommendation to no jail time at all.

Barr has also tasked the US Attorney from St Louis, Missouri, Jeffrey Jensen, to investigate the investigation into Flynn, essentially targeting Trump’s favorite people to hate:  James Comey, Andrew McCabe and Peter Strzok.  And finally he has appointed the US Attorney in Pittsburgh, Scott Brady, to take the “information” developed by Rudy Giuliani from Ukraine and investigate it.

Out of Sight

There are a couple ways to look at Barr’s actions.  The first is that Barr has greater control over US Attorneys, including whether they can keep their jobs.  New Haven, Pittsburgh and St. Louis are also far from the hotbed of Department of Justice turmoil in Washington.  Those Attorneys are “standing alone”, with obvious agendas from the Attorney General.

But they are also far away from the power of the Presidential tweet.  Perhaps Barr, already on record complaining about the President’s comments, is trying to keep these investigations far away from the White House.

Either way, don’t expect Barr to appoint a Special Counsel for anything soon.  It’s more likely that the US Attorney in Helena, Montana or Anchorage, Alaska will be dragged into the fray.

“Remember,” he told a crowd in 2018, “what you’re seeing and what you’re reading is not what’s happening.” – President Trump

And You Shall Know the Truth, and the Truth Shall Make You Free – John 8:32 – KJV

Disinformation

It was already happening, but we didn’t know it.  In 2016 the Presidential elections in the United States were influenced and undermined in a way unique to our modern times.  Before, we considered social media, Facebook and Twitter in particular, as innocuous ways to keep up with friends, hear about local concerns, and voice opinions.  But the private owners of those platforms knew that the “magic” (read profits) was in their ability to gather specific information about each user, and then sell that information to advertisers.

Campaign ads could be “micro-targeted” to the exact views and concerns of individual users.  Instead of the “broad-brush” advertising of television, where hundred of thousands of viewers saw the ad, but only a few thousand were the “targeted” market, on Facebook and Twitter there was the ability to hit near one hundred percent.  The same ad could be “tweaked” with dozens of variables, to specifically match the thousands of pieces of individual information on file.

But it was more than just ads.  It was “news” stories, maybe real, but just as likely created from nothing, to motivate the user towards a particular view or action.  Those worried about immigrants were told about grisly crimes, Roman Catholics shown late term abortions, Jews and Christians saw the dangers of Muslims to Israel. They were posted specifically to their news feeds looking like “regular” news stories:  true or not, they looked REAL.  

Psycho-Engineering

We blamed “troll farms” in Macedonia.  We blamed Russian intelligence.  We blamed unknown fat men in their parents’ basement.  And all of them did play a role.  

But we didn’t blame the political campaigns themselves.  While professionals scoffed at the amateurs at the Trump Campaign of 2016, in one area they were far beyond everyone else.  They learned how to manipulate social media and they were taught by the best.  Cambridge Analytica, a pioneer in social media “psycho-engineering,” a company largely owned by American billionaire Robert Mercer and lead by conservative political operative Steve Bannon, became part of the Trump Campaign.  And Facebook put their employees side-by-side with the Trump workers.  

Facebook, “the referee,” was playing for a team on the field.  We know the results of the 2016 election.  In a contest decided by such a small margin, everything made a difference. 

The Death Star

The Trump Campaign is no longer a bunch of amateurs.  Brad Parscale, the leader of the 2016 social media campaign, is now the overall campaign manager.  They plan to spend a billion dollars on their social media campaign alone, a billion dollars.  It has already begun:  thousands of ads, “news stories”, and manipulations went out during the Impeachment trial.  If you just watched your social media, and you were a “targeted user”, Trump was clearly exonerated, clearly innocent of any wrongdoing.  It really was a “perfect call”.

President Trump understands the strategy:  destroy the legitimacy of any news source that doesn’t tell his story.  As he said in 2018, …what you’re seeing and what you’re reading is not what’s happening”.   Believe what I say, believe what your targeted “feed” shows; ignore the “mainstream media”.  Don’t engage in a “national conversation” with “fake news” facts.

A billion dollars:  not from Russia, or Macedonia, or from the basement.  A billion dollars of social media manipulation from the fourteenth floor of an office tower in Rosslyn, Virginia.  Money directed not just to get your vote, but also to keep those who would vote for the opponent to stay home.  A fortune directed to persuade, but also to confuse and deny, muddying the discourse. 

By the way, Brad Parscale won’t be the only social media manipulator in 2020.  The Bloomberg campaign’s “Hawkfish” operation is spending millions of dollars to try to match Trump’s efforts.  Even if Bloomberg himself fails to win the Democratic nomination, he promises that infrastructure will be available to the winner. 

The Truth 

It won’t just be memes and ads.  It will be comments, stories, and this year, texts.  You have to sign up to get “mass” texts, but if each text is sent out by a single “send” button, then there are no controls.  Texts will arrive; looking like it’s from a friend, just a conversation about “the news” of the day.  But, of course, it won’t be “the news,” it will be whatever the campaign wants you to know, to think, and to do.  

We will all know that it’s happening.  But when we see it, in texts, on Facebook, on Twitter, and through all our other media, we will begin to question what “the truth” really is.  Repetition will make fake seem real, false seem true, wrong seem right. 

Maybe someday we will regulate social media. But if our twenty-four hour news networks are an example of regulation, that won’t help the problem.  And meanwhile our data will continue to be collected, a little piece at a time, so that the message is honed to exactly influence – you.

The definitive Atlantic Magazine Article on Parscale and the Trump Social Media Campaign – The Atlantic – by McKay Coppins

More Information about Bloomberg and Hawkfish   – CNBC

Get Away

I love going on vacation.  I woke up early this morning and slipped out onto the balcony of our hotel.  The Gulf of Mexico waves are crashing on the shore as the sun tries works it way up through the clouds.  Thunder rumbles far off in the distance.  We are in Gulf Shores, Alabama, just west of Pensacola, Florida.  It’s been a good three-day getaway.  Today we will head back home to the snows of Ohio.

We’ve spent some time before in this region around Pensacola.  This time, we made it to our favorite Irish restaurant, McGuire’s, and to other beach bars and eateries. Last time we stayed over the state line in Florida, but now we are at the Gulf State Park Lodge, run by Hilton.  It stands on a stretch of beach, with a mile between it and the next buildings.  Even though it’s a “fancy” hotel, you still have a little feeling of isolation out on the beach.

One warning though:  when the restaurant here serves “flash fried red snapper”, don’t do it.  They take a whole fish, gut it, bread it, and put it on the plate.  That must be a delicacy “here in Alabama” but sixteen inches of fins, scales, and eyes is a little too much for us.

Still Connected

Even out here on the beach, we are completely connected.  We watched the results of the New Hampshire Primary, and heard all the trepidation about Sanders being the Democratic nominee, Biden failing in his campaign, and “Yang Gangers” angry at Buttigieg for, well, liking and using some of Yang’s ideas.  New Hampshire did little but to tell us Pete’s for real, Amy is too, and we have a long way to go before we reach a final nominee.

And we got every bit of the President subverting the Justice Department for his buddy, Roger Stone.

Sweet Home

I will confess a Northern bias about Alabama. This is the home state of Judge Roy Moore, and Jeff Sessions, and Montgomery, the birthplace of the Confederacy.  But it is also the home to the civil rights movement, courage on the Edmund Pettus Bridge, and current Senator Doug Jones.  And, this was the home to my first Principal, Pete Nix.  I love and admired him, and learned a lot about how to be a teacher, coach, and administrator.  I also learned about Alabama loyalty.  

Pete would often lead our staff to a nearby bar, “Olde Summit Towne,” on Thursday nights.  Back then there was an Elvis impersonator who did a two hour show.  It would be late, maybe one in the morning, when “Elvis” would end by singing the Confederate anthem “Dixie”.  Pete would stand, and make it clear that to stay in good graces on staff, you’d better too. As a twenty-two year old staffer, I jumped up and raised my beer.

 Battleship

Tuesday we made our way over to Mobile, and toured the World War II Battleship Alabama.  I’ve been on Battleships before, but the Alabama more than most is bristling with weapons; guns in every conceivable direction and size.  And though it’s a huge ship, maybe sixteen stories from keel to top, it must have been crowded.  2500 sailors packed in, serving every possible capacity from barber to gunner to nurse.  They fought through the Pacific campaigns, and, as one of the sailors said, they weren’t just lucky to finish undamaged, they were good.

They were dedicated to a cause, and willing to sacrifice themselves for it.  Listening to all the divisions today, it makes you wonder if that still exists here in Alabama, or the rest of the United States.

America

So here I am in Alabama, a state of contradictions.  The Confederacy and Civil Rights, the heart of Trump Country that elected a Democratic Senator, cotton still growing in the fields, and luxury condos on the beach.  To quote John Mellencamp, “Ain’t that America”.

It’s 2020, the year of crisis and change.  Nine months from now America will decide what kind of country we’re going to be.  Are we moving towards an inclusive future, “dedicated to the proposition that all men are created equal,” or a future of internalization and polarization?  Or are we headed towards both.  We are a nation divided, not just about what we support, but also about what we want America to be.  This is one of those critical points in time, like 1786, or 1860, or 1932.  

It was supposed to be a break, and it was from the snow and the cold. Today we go north; almost 900 miles back to Ohio, a whole lot colder, but just as politically divided as Alabama. 

 And the realities of today’s America will follow.  We can’t “turn that off”. 

Nixon

It was Monday, August 3^rd 1970.  Richard Nixon was the President of the United States, deeply mired in the Vietnam War.  But that wasn’t the “big news” of the day.  Charles Manson, cult leader and accused multiple murderer, was on trial in Los Angeles.  The nation was grossly fascinated with the crimes: the ritual-butchery of actress Sharon Tate and five of her friends on one night, then supermarket executive Leno LaBianca and his wife the next.

Nixon was fascinated as well.  In a response to a press question, Nixon, said:

“…the media’s coverage of Manson makes him out to be a rather glamorous figure even though he is guilty, directly or indirectly, of eight murders without reason.” (WAPO)

It was a widely held view by many Americans.  But many Americans weren’t the President of the United States.  The next day, the headlines in the LA Times read:  “MANSON GUILTY, NIXON DECLARES”.   Manson’s lawyers demanded a mistrial.  The President of the United States had attempted to sway the jury.

Nixon, a lawyer himself, immediately realized that the enormous persuasive powers of his office could impact the trial.  His Press Secretary, Ron Zeigler, wrote a lengthy statement “walking back” the comment, and noting the President had no “inside information” about the crimes.  The Jury was interrogated, and ultimately the trial continued.  Manson was sentenced to life in prison, where he died in 2017.

Obama

On July 16^th, 2009, noted ancestry researcher and Harvard Professor Henry Louis Gates returned home to Cambridge, Massachusetts.  He had been on a trip to China to research the ancestry of famous American cellist YoYo Ma.  The front door to his home was jammed, and Gates and his driver were forced to pry it open to get in.  A neighbor called the police.

What occurred next remains in dispute, but ultimately, even after producing identification as the homeowner, Gates was arrested for disorderly conduct.  

Barack Obama, President of the United States, was asked about the incident in a press conference a week later.  The President answered by saying:

“I don’t know, not having been there and not seeing all the facts, what role race played in that [Gates case]. But I think it’s fair to say, number one, any of us would be pretty angry; number two, that the Cambridge police acted stupidly in arresting somebody when there was already proof that they were in their own home; and, number three, what I think we know separate and apart from this incident is that there’s a long history in this country of African-Americans and Latinos being stopped by law enforcement disproportionately. That’s just a fact.” (ABC)

Beer Summit

Many Americans agreed with the President, but police chiefs throughout the country demanded that he was unfair to the police officer on the scene.  It seemed to be another case of the President commenting on the judicial process, despite the fact that Mr. Obama led his statement with a disclaimer.  

The “crisis” of the Gates statement ultimately was resolved by the “Beer Summit” in the Rose Garden, where the President, Vice President Biden, police Sargent James Crowley and Gates met for a discussion.  The four men talked over the situation.  After the meeting, Crowley stated they met “…like two gentlemen, instead of fighting it out either in the physical sense or in the mental sense, in the court of public opinion.”

Gates said that he hoped “… that this experience will prove an occasion for education, not recrimination. I know that Sergeant Crowley shares this goal.”  In a later New York Times interview, he joked, “…when he’s not arresting you, Sergeant Crowley is a really likable guy.”

Trump

This week the President of the United States intervened in the American judicial process.  He specifically criticized the actions of Department of Justice attorneys, who recommend that Trump’s friend, Roger Stone, be sentenced to prison for seven to nine years.  

In a series of tweets, Trump stated:

This is a horrible and very unfair situation. The real crimes were on the other side, as nothing happens to them. Cannot allow this miscarriage of justice!

Two months in jail for a Swamp Creature (Democratic operative Tony Podesta), yet 9 years recommended for Roger Stone (who was not even working for the Trump Campaign). Gee, that sounds very fair! Rogue prosecutors maybe? The Swamp! 

While many Americans were dismayed that a President would intervene in the judicial process, few were shocked.  What was shocking was that the top levels of the Department of Justice immediately moved to reduce the sentencing recommendation, triggering the resignation of all four of the Department lawyers that prosecuted the case.  What used to be a Department dedicated to Justice now seems to be an extension of the President’s every wish and desire.  “Justice” is an anachronism; perhaps the Department of “Trump’s Lawyers” would be more appropriate.

Pardons

The President already has the power of the pardon.  If he feels that his buddy Stone is getting a raw deal, he can step in anytime and free him from any criminal responsibility.  He can do the same for his friends Paul Manfort, Michael Flynn and Rudy Giuliani.  But rather than take the political heat for “freeing” his campaign operatives, the President is willing to batter his own Justice Department in order to get them to do his bidding.

It makes the “mistakes” of Nixon and Obama look quaint; petty upsets of a different era.  Trump’s interference in justice is the real thing now.

San Bernardino

It seems like a whole other lifetime, but it was only a little over four years ago.  An employee of the San Bernardino health department and his wife attacked his work Christmas party.  He was an American of Pakistani descent, she came over from Pakistan to be his wife.  As we now know, their relationship was based on radical extremism.   They spoke of jihad and martyrdom, before they were even married.  Fourteen were murdered at the San Bernardino Inland Regional Center.  The two terrorists died in a shootout with police hours later.

It was in the post-tragedy investigation that the FBI ran into a snag.  They had the IPhone of the shooter, actually issued to him by the Health Department.  They were unable to get into it; he coded the phone locked.  Apple phones allow for ten attempts to “unlock” a phone, and then they automatically erase all data. The FBI asked Apple Inc. to aid in the investigation.  They wanted them to create a new version of the IPhone operating system that they could download onto the phone and then open it.  

Protecting Terrorists

Apple refused.  Their policy was to never undermine their own phone security protocols.  The Department of Justice filed suit against Apple, and the anticipated outcome would have significant legal repercussions.  Could the US Government force a company to “hack” its own phone?  But just months later, the Department dropped the suit.  They found some hackers who were able to break into the phone by allowing unlimited coding attempts.  They then entered combinations until they found the code, and no longer needed Apple’s help.

I remember thinking at the time that Apple was being beyond stubborn.  This was a terrorist attack on Americans, in America, and like it or not, their phone was involved.  How could they deny what seemed like a very reasonable request by the FBI?  How could they align themselves with murderers, terrorists?

Lame Excuse

At the time, Apple’s excuses seemed pretty lame.  We are a worldwide company, they said, and if we did this for the government of the United States, what would other governments in the world ask of us?  While the US might be “right” this time, what about the government of Russia, or Turkey, or one of Apple’s biggest commercial markets, China?  It Apple exploits its own vulnerabilities, what security can they offer their buyers from future, less reasonable intrusions?

But the phone was owned by the San Bernardino Health Department, not Syed Farook.  Doesn’t the phone owner have the “right” to ask for help?  And Apple is an American company, headquartered in the same state of California, in Cupertino near San Jose.  Shouldn’t American companies help protect America against terrorism?

Of course, Apple could always reset the phone.  But the process would erase the information contained in it, defeating the FBI’s purpose.  And Apple actually went a step further.  Their next version of the IPhone operating system fixed the flaw the hackers found.

Today’s World

It’s four years later.  Today IPhones can still be coded.  They can also be set to open with fingerprints, or even facial recognition.  What that might mean to terrorists or other criminals:  stick to the codes to hide your data.  Your “cold, dead thumbprint” would still be available, as would your face.

But there is another consideration to think about today.  The Justice Department of Attorney General William Barr and his predecessors under the Trump Administration, seems willing to be cavalier with personal data.  For example, the personal messages of Peter Strzok and Lisa Page were on government phones, but still were personal messages.  They were released by the Justice Department, because they were already leaked to Congressional investigators.  In short, the Department couldn’t control the information.  

And for my friends who think the Strzok-Page messages revealed a vast conspiracy to bring down the Trump Administration, we now know that Justice also had as many messages by employees that were anti-Clinton.  Those weren’t released until the Inspector General’s report a couple of months ago.  If you want conspiracies, you can have them both ways.

Tipping the Scales

The Department of Justice today, is investigating those who found Russian connections to the Trump Campaign, led by Connecticut US Attorney John Durham.  This week, they announced investigations into the Russian-based Ukrainian nonsense, led by the US Attorney from Pittsburgh, Scott Brady. The Department is choosing a side.  An agency that traditionally has modeled the scales held by “blind justice” has taken the blindfold off, and placed its thumb on the scales.

They are doing President Trump’s bidding, investigating his enemies, and using the full force of American government to support his candidacy.

So, if Justice isn’t going to protect us, maybe it is up to Apple.  

Field Coordinator

When I was just turned twenty in 1976, I worked for the Jimmy Carter for President campaign.  I was a lowly “field coordinator”, one of those bottom level organizers who had direct contact with student groups, union locals, county party organizations.  We organized door-to-door walks, literature drops, and the ever-present “sign” campaign.  

I travelled from near Dayton to the Ohio River, delivering materials, planning activities, and sleeping in the back of my Volkswagen station wagon on some nights.  I learned a lot, including to never, ever, take the VW to a United Auto Workers union hall. The old UAW local President put his big arm lovingly around my shoulders, and quietly told me to get another car or not to come back. From then on, I borrowed Dad’s Olds’ Cutlass for the trip.

Dick Tuck

My boss was a guy from Nebraska named Mike Jackson.  He looked like a lineman from the Cornhuskers, not the “other Jackson”, and he was a forty-some year old veteran sent in to win Southwestern Ohio for Carter/Mondale.  He had learned from the best, starting his political life working for Hubert Humphrey.  And he told us stories, late at night over cheap Hudepohl beer while we printed signs on his homemade screen printer, stories of a campaign legend named Dick Tuck.

Dick Tuck was the Democratic “master” of the dirty trick.  He originally was a “Kennedy” man, and became famous for doing things to Humphrey in the hotly contested 1960 primaries.  They were dirty tricks with flair.  Humphrey did a “whistle-stop” train tour of West Virginia.  While he was standing at the caboose, speaking to an assembled crowd, Tuck signaled the engineer to “pull out”.  All Humphrey could do was wave goodbye.  Tuck called and cancelled Humphrey rallies, gave Humphrey drivers bad directions, and was all-around annoying to the Humphrey team.

Eight years later Tuck was working for Humphrey and needed a large crowd in a downtown area.  His trick then:  buy junk cars and stall them in the major intersections.  After gridlock occurred, send in the candidate.  With people motionless in their cars, they got out to see what was going on – and a crowd was born.

Nixon

Tuck was so good, that the 1972 Nixon campaign hired him to do:  nothing.  They just wanted Tuck to leave them alone.  But the Nixon campaign had plenty of “dirty tricksters” of their own. It wasn’t just the Watergate break-in, it was a fake letters published in newspapers, fake workers pretending to be Communists for a Democrats, and perhaps even drugging opposing candidates.

Nixon didn’t want to run against Ed Muskie, and sent the full force of his “dirty tricksters” against him in the primaries.  Muskie lost.  Nixon wanted to run against a more liberal Senator George McGovern from South Dakota.  McGovern won.

Our Moment 

We wanted to “be like Dick”.  In October of 1976, President Gerald Ford was coming to town.  The other Field Coordinators and I had a great “dirty trick” idea.  As Ford was speaking on Fountain Square in downtown Cincinnati, we would unfurl a large Carter/Mondale sign from atop a nearby abandoned building.  The action would be sure to attract both the crowds and the medias attention.

So we went to the top of the decrepit building, carefully avoiding holes in the roof, and prepared our sign.  We were young, so young.  Of course we told the Secret Service what we were doing on a rooftop overlooking the President, we didn’t want to get shot.  And the Service said we were fine, but intentionally didn’t bother to tell the Cincinnati Police.

About thirty minutes before Ford arrived we looked out over the scene, to see white-shirted policemen pointing to our roof, like a picture of Dealey Plaza in Dallas after the Kennedy assassination.  We ran for the stairs, but were met halfway down by a phalanx of officers, who made it very clear we were in the wrong.  The Secret Service detail laughed as we were hauled out, but didn’t let the Police know until after the President was done.

Crowd Sourcing

Like everything else in today’s society, campaign “dirty tricks” are “crowd-sourced”.  Now you don’t have to risk the Police, or Secret Service, you can just put an idea out online and let it catch fire.   

One example is conservative commentator Hugh Hewitt.  Hewitt was a “Never-Trumper”, right up until the moment Trump won, and Hewitt’s son got hired at the EPA.  Then Hewitt did a full reversal, and ever since has been a Trump apologist.  A few weeks ago Hewitt publicly announced that he was voting in the Virginia Primary for Bernie Sanders.  His argument was that he wanted “…a clear choice” for President, but ultimately this Trump sycophant was sending a message to the Trump base:  rig the Virginia primary for Bernie.

Republican voters don’t have much to do this primary season.  Hewitt’s “dirty trick” is catching fire.  Here in Ohio, where you are required to “declare” your Party, there is a movement to get “Trumpers” to cross-over, even if requires them to lie on an affidavit stating they voted at least 50% Democratic in the last election.  The Trump camp is operating on the assumption that they can choose their opponent, just like the Nixon team did in 1972. 

MAGA Hats

The Trump team also crowd-sourced disruption of the already confused Iowa Democratic Caucus tally.  The back-up phone number for entering results was published on Trumpian web sites, and they helped jam all lines.  It’s easy with crowd sourcing; there is no one “trickster” to blame. 

Trump broke American laws and suffered impeachment to tarnish Joe Biden.  While Biden has his own electoral problems, it’s difficult to determine how much impact the Ukraine scandal has had on his candidacy.  I hear from many younger voters, “…Biden is just a dirty politician like the rest”.  He wasn’t, until Trump made his son Hunter a household word. 

Now Trump and his minions have made it clear they want to run against Sanders.   Fellow Democrats, this doesn’t mean that you shouldn’t support Bernie, if he’s your guy.  

But don’t be surprised if you look around and see fellow voters in MAGA hats.  

*thanks Guns and Roses

The Longest Week

Last week seemed like it lasted at least twenty days.  We felt the excitement of the Iowa caucuses, democracy at the neighborhood level, and then the frustration of the tabulation.  There was the sheer anger of the State of the Union Address: anger coming from the President and the Republicans, anger at the cheapening of our institutions, and anger at the inevitability of Wednesday’s impeachment vote. 

And there were moments of pure courage.   Alabama Senator Doug Jones recognized that duty to his nation and the truth was greater than his desire to get re-elected.  And Mitt Romney, clearly acting in faith, laid the Republican dilemma out in the open for all to see.  Vote your conscience, and find that your President, Party, and friends will turn on you as if you were a monster.  It takes courage to face the ostracism, the loss of collegiality. Courage, by the way, that Senators Susan Collins, Lamar Alexander, and the other Republican Senators failed to find.

We heard the last words of the House Managers, knowing that the decision was already done, speaking for history.  And we watched the flushed face of Mitch McConnell, the taste of victory soured in his mouth from the Romney defection.  Yes, Donald Trump remains the President of the United States.  Not even a majority of the Senate chose to convict him. But he is stained with impeachment, the last in a very short list of three.

Trump Vengeance Tour

Thursday saw the beginning of the Trump Vengeance Tour.  It began, appropriately, at the National Prayer Breakfast, where Trump defiled the podium.  “Revenge is mine,” sayeth the President, and he began his campaign of retribution. From condemning the faith of Democrats in the House of Representatives, to praising his toady allies in a White House victory rally, Trump made it clear no one would “move on” from impeachment until he had “cancelled” all his debts.

Friday the “bodies” were falling:  Colonel Vindman and his brother, fired for being related, I suppose.  Sondland recalled from the European Union.  Romney condemned: Don Junior called for his ouster from the Republican Party.  The message from the President was clear:  speak the truth against me, and I will “strike you down”.  If it sounds Biblical, it’s probably closer to Mafioso, with “Don” Trump starring as the “Godfather”.

Another World

And Friday night, as if in an alternate universe, most of the Democratic candidates for President debated in New Hampshire.  It was a raucous and enlightening exchange, with Amy Klobuchar finally having her moment on stage.  Biden sounded stronger, Buttigieg hit a snag, Sanders and Warren repeated their stories, and surprisingly, Tom Steyer stood on the side and called his compatriots to the common goal:  defeat Trump.  It was two and a half hours of discussion and dissection, and for perhaps the first time, it sounded like a real debate, rather than an eleven-person audition.

The commentators, and Mike Bloomberg, want Democrats to PANIC.  “We can’t count votes in Iowa, we are going to nominate a Socialist, Joe Biden is too old, black people don’t like Pete”.  Clinton political “brain” James Carville came back from, well he looks like he’s dead, to warn of a Bernie candidacy.  PANIC – and take Bloomberg and his billions, like the stranger in a car who says he’ll buy you ice cream.  PANIC – we will never get it together, we will never unite.  Bernie’s “bros” will refuse to join, or a Socialist will inevitably fail.  PANIC – MSNBC’s Chris Matthews warns of Cuba and Venezuela, of firing squads in the park, while studiously avoiding Danish and Swedish comparisons. 

Speaking of returning from the dead, Trump mentor Steve Bannon is back, trying to plant seeds of disaffection, claiming that the Iowa debacle was intentional to deny Bernie a victory.  Perhaps Bannon was more than just a commentator, part of the Iowa confusion was phone lines jammed by Trump supporters calling into the Democratic counting center.  

Time to Choose

It’s February of 2020.  Democrats:  we are in for two months of determining, of highs and lows, victories and failures.  By the end of March, twenty-six states will have voted or caucused, and we will have a much better idea who the nominee will be.  We don’t need to decide today, or the Wednesday after New Hampshire.  We will have lots of information, and lots of votes by the end of next month.  Then we should know, or at least have a couple of clear choices.  

For two months it is time to choose.  As embattled Democratic Chairman Tom Perez said what seems like ages ago, let a candidate win your heart, and support them.  Then we will find a candidate to nominate, and use our heads to elect them. Vote with your heart in the primary, and your head in the general.

Don’t Panic

There’s no need to PANIC.  Anyone on the debate stage in New Hampshire Friday, any of the candidates who failed to make the stage, Bloomberg, Bennet and Patrick; ANY OF THEM will make a better President than “Don” Trump.  Sure Bernie’s socialism will push away the “hold your nose Trump voter,” but it might bring a whole raft of young voters to the polls.  Sure, Biden is old, but he might be the middle that can appeal to that odd Obama/Trump voter.  And sure, Pete is the smartest kid in class, but he might be the new face of “big ‘D’” Democracy. Or maybe our fellow Democrats will decide it’s the year of the woman, and chose Warren instead of Bernie, or Klobuchar instead of Biden.

And Mike Bloomberg, Republican-lite, backed by sixty billion?  He certainly would make a stark choice against Trump:  your billionaire or ours.  But even his hand on the “tiller” of our government would be reassuring compared to what we have now. 

Take a breath, support your choice, and let events and elections play out.  As the civil rights movement often said, “keep your eyes on the prize”.  Democrats will be ready for the existential fight against Trump soon enough.  It’s just going to take a little patience.

When There’s a Will

I am an old high school teacher, so I have had the opportunity to study many, many kinds of cheaters.  In the old days we had the basic cheaters:  looking at someone else’s test, stealing the test key and writing down the answers, scribing in ink on hands, arms, legs, top of feet, and that one strange kid who had the entire test key on his belly.

There were the “crib” noters, with tiny, tiny pieces of paper, carefully filled with needed equations or factoids.  In the event of emergency, the scraps could be quickly wadded up and discarded, or in the extreme, swallowed.  And then there were “committee” cheaters, groups who would design sectional crib notes, then stealthily pass them among the class during the test.

Electronic Age

But even in those ancient times before computers and cell phones, we had the “advanced” cheaters, the kids that spent so much time prepping to cheat, they should have just studied – it would’ve been easier.  There was the guy who carefully arranged the “smart” kid to sit diagonally from the very shiny silver fire extinguisher.  He made his grades on the reflection, making sure he only got a ‘C+’.  An ‘A’ would be far too suspicious.  He would also try to array multiple smart kids around him.  It gave him the option of taking the majority answer in case there was a controversy.

Then there was the “hat” kid.  Every answer was written in near microdots on the inside of the brim.  If the teacher let him keep it on, there was a lot of squinting up.  If he had to take it off, there was a lot of glancing down at the floor.  Either way, he had whatever answer he needed.

Of course modern technology brought technical cheating advances.  There are the earplug kids.  A student from the period before recites the answers from a copied, photographed or purloined test, while the hardwired cheater writes them carefully down.  This also has variations in texts, photos, and such.  And there is the “Googler”, ready to reach for “a friend” to determine the appropriate response, even for essay questions.

Retribution 

As a teacher, you had to assume there were cheaters in your class.  You were on guard: vigilant as students took their exams, suspicious of those with exactly the same wrong answers, and cautious of electronic theft.  You took precautions:  multiple versions of the same test, long walks through the aisles, a seat carefully chosen in the back of the room so students wouldn’t see where you were looking.

The short answer was – someone was always trying, and if you assumed your class wasn’t cheating, you most certainly were wrong.  The entire school knew which class was “easy” to cheat in. If you didn’t try to catch cheaters, they would try it again and again and again.

And when you caught someone cheating, it was important to “make an example”.  I wouldn’t hold them up to public ridicule; that’s just wrong no matter the offense.  No, I used a zero on the test, a call to parents, and a word to guidance counselors.  All served to “motivate” the cheater to change their ways.

Big Cheaters

Getting elected to President of the United States is the biggest test of all.  There are a myriad of ways to cheat, to find a way to shortcut the system in your favor, or make it worse for your opponent.

Maybe it’s cooperating with a foreign nation, or enflaming the electorate on social media.  Perhaps it’s stealing information or strategies, so that you can better counter with your own tactics.  Or, it’s simple slander, telling lies about the person. Once those hit the Media, they can never be disproved or ignored.

 Like cheating in class, the excuse of proclaiming that “everybody does it” just doesn’t fly.  First of all it’s not true, not everybody does cheat in class, or in political campaigns.  Secondly, it’s reasonable concept that someone running for leadership in our society shouldn’t “cheat”.  It might sound quaint, but that should be the “norm”.

No Consequences

But when you catch someone cheating, the surest way to encourage him or her to do it again is to have NO consequences.  Let’s look at the Trump Campaign.

• Took information from Russian Intelligence – no consequences.  
• Asked for foreign countries to assist, Russia, China, and Ukraine – no consequences. 
•  Interfered with the counting the votes by flooding phone lines with bogus calls so election results can’t be transmitted (Iowa this week) – no consequences.
• Encouraging voters to fraudulently claim to be a member of the opposition party so they can vote for candidates that are easier to defeat – no consequences.

Robert Mueller marshaled facts showing the Trump Campaign worked with Russia.  Despite the persistent drone of Republican claims, Mueller DID NOT say there was “no collusion”. In fact, he cited hundreds of instances of cooperation.  What Mueller said was that he was unable to find enough evidence to reach a criminal certainty.  Trump got away with it.

Ukraine

Attorney General Bill Barr refused to let the Justice Department look at the Ukraine scandal.  So it was Congress, specifically the House of Representatives, who brought the information to light.  The President countered by releasing a summary/transcript of his phone call – calling it “perfect” – even though a plain reading of it proved the House’s case.  Seventeen witnesses and tons of documents ultimately backed up the House, and they did the one thing they could do.

They impeached the President.  They challenged the Senate of the United States to judge his actions and determine both the facts and the penalty.  The Senate failed to act.  Republican Senators quite literally stuck their fingers in their ears and sang “♫ La-La-La ♫” so they didn’t have to hear what the President did.  

Still Cheating

Yesterday the Attorney General announced that “all candidate investigations” had to be approved by his office.  He even tried to illegally expand his authority to the House and Senate, an action I’m sure Speaker Pelosi and Chairman Schiff will gladly ignore.  Bill Barr is proving to be the President’s best weapon – the virtual teacher who let’s his personal “student pet,” cheat.

Democrats couldn’t be blamed for taking the view: “if Trump cheats, we have to cheat as well”.  That would be wrong.  They can’t run on the issue of Trump’s lack of morality, and then show they are lacking too.  So what can Democrats do?

They have to run honest campaigns.  They should show the American people that they don’t have to cheat to have better ideas about what’s good for our country.  In fact, not cheating is the first really good idea. Americans don’t want cheaters as their leaders.  America wants leaders they can trust.

 “Between 2014 and 2060, the US Population is projected to increase from 319 million to 417 million…by 2030 one in five Americans is projected to be 65 or older, by 2044, more than half of all Americans are projected to belong to a minority group (any group other than non-Hispanic White alone), and by 2060, nearly one in five of the nation’s total population is projected to be foreign born.” US Census  – Projections – 2014-2060

Post Mortem

No wonder Republicans are worried. 

After the Mitt Romney lost in 2012, the Republican Party did a “post-mortem” study of their last two Presidential elections losses.  In the 100-page report released in 2013 (Atlantic), the future of a GOP that didn’t make drastic changes was foretold.  The Party was described as shrinking; closed to minorities, women, youth and Hispanics.  The Republican Party of 2012 was a Party of white men, and the “post-mortem” emphasized that to survive, it had to reach out to the groups that were ignored.

The Party was looking for a different identity, one that could expand to Hispanic voters in Florida, Texas, Arizona and California, reach out to a growing African-American middle class, and be more inclusive of youth and women.  It could be the Party that recognized the changing demographics of America, one that could survive into the 2030’s and beyond.  It could be the Party of Jeb Bush, or Marco Rubio, or even John Kasich.

Rise of the Alt-Right

But the Republicans didn’t take into account the growing alt-right movement, lead by publications like Breitbart and leaders like Steve Bannon. At the beginning those “insurgents” operated outside the Party structure, and outside of the main Republican media organ, Fox News.  But when there were sixteen original candidates for the 2016 Presidential nomination, the alt-right forces were able to consolidate behind a single candidate, Donald Trump.  

Trump threw out the “post-mortem” and created a new “populist” Republican doctrine.  He reached out to disaffected whites, particularly white men, who felt that the changes in America symbolized by the Obama Presidency were leaving them behind.  And he offered the Christian right everything they wanted:  Supreme Court Justices to ban abortion, abolition of “offensive” Affordable Care Act provisions, renouncing expanded LGBTQ rights, and undying loyalty to Israeli expansion. 

Instead of expanding the Republican Party base, the Trump campaign unified this new white populism.  And while Trump was unable to win a majority in the early primaries, his consolidation led to pluralities against the divided opposition.  This led to his nomination, and ultimately his election as President, despite Trump’s personal character flaws.

Minority Rule

Throughout his first term, Trump has never had a majority of Americans view him as “favorable”.  It is still his “minority”, his base that maintains loyalty.  And, in the mean time, the Trump Campaign has consolidated its power.  Now, there is no Republican Party outside of Trump:  he controls the National Committee, the financing, and the media organ, Fox News.  Few Republicans will stand against him, their fate is sealed by a “tweet”:  ask John Kasich, or Mark Sanford, or now Mitt Romney.

But ultimately, the “arc of our universe” is against the Republican Party.  Within two decades, white people in America will no longer be a majority.  A political party that isolates itself from non-white voters cannot look to survive.  And in the next twenty years the realities of climate change will become both apparent and irreparable. The Party that denies that cannot expect to be trusted.  

Grabbing Power

So the Republican Party of today is doing everything it can to consolidate power.  Mitch McConnell is single handedly packing the Federal Courts, with 25% of Appellate Court judges now Trump appointees.  McConnell held a Supreme Court seat open through the final year of the Obama Administration, securing an “extra” seat for Trump.  And, if another seat were to come open before January, whether Trump wins reelection or not, you can expect McConnell to swiftly move to fill it.

On a state level, the Court packing has already increased Republican power.  The Courts allowed the Republican gerrymandering plan, RedMap, to continue. RedMap creates extreme alterations to Congressional District maps maximizing the number of Republican representatives and minimizing Democrats.  In states like Ohio, North Carolina, and Georgia, it allows Republicans to have a disproportionate majority of Congressmen. 

Last Bastion

And the Republican Party is a fierce defender of the Electoral College system.  It reduces the overwhelming influence of popular votes in Democratic states like California and New York, and allows results where the winner of the popular vote still does not become President.  Hillary Clinton won by three million in 2016 but lost the Presidency. The Trump strategy for 2020 is geared to produce a similar result.

The Republican Party has become the Party of “rural America”.  The “Red States” of the middle of America don’t have population, but they do have two Senators a-piece, just like the populous states on the coast.  As the population increases in the next twenty years, the relative power of those Senate seats will become more important.  Holding onto the Senate must be a Republican priority; it will be the last bastion of their control.

None of these actions prevents Democrats from winning.  What they do mean is that it will require more than just a slim majority.  In order to overcome the Republican structural advantages, Democrats will need an overwhelming popular victories, not only winning the Presidency, but the Senate and State legislatures as well.

But if it doesn’t happen in 2020, change in political power is still inevitable.  The Republican Party has chosen the past.  The future is Democratic. The arc of the American universe is long, and it bends towards diversity.  

The “Send” Button

There’s a wise saying, never write a letter when you’re angry.  In the modern age it’s been translated to “don’t push the send button”.  So I’m writing today’s essay under duress, it’s been burning in my head since somewhere in the middle of the State of the Union address last night.  The speech made me more than angry: listening to it was like having surgery under local anesthesia; you know you have to do it, but you so much want to get up and leave.

To help me stay seated through the Presidential fiction I tried looking at Facebook.  That didn’t help, my Trumpian friends were so excited they couldn’t contain themselves.  “I guess Democrats don’t want a good economy,” one said, while others were overjoyed at the shocked expressions of Speaker Nancy Pelosi.  I’m a thumb typist on my phone, and my thumbs hovered over four-letters.  Don’t push “send”.

A Fictional Economy

It started with Trump’s economic claims.  The lies came fast and furious; so quickly you couldn’t fact check one before three more were spouted.  But the overall impact was to somehow paint a picture of an America where everyone had wonderful jobs, were paid living wages, and doing better than they ever had.  That vision is just not true, and the multiple fact-checking news services list one false claim after another (NYT). 

One real Trump truth was that unemployment is very low.  Sure there are lots of jobs, and it’s a damn good thing.  Many of those jobs aren’t paying a living wage; it takes a couple to even keep up.  Here’s a fact that the President didn’t tell you:  40% of Americans can’t handle a $400 emergency bill; the car breaking down, an uncovered medical expense, or a hot water heater going bad (CNBC).

My only guess is that either my Trumpian friends are “among the blessed” doing well, or they so hope to be, that they are willing to throw everyone else under the bus.

What Health Care Program?

There were lies about a non-existent Republican health care program, lies about protecting pre-existing conditions from a President in Court right now trying to rip it away, lies about cutting pharmaceutical costs.  Lies easily refuted, but lies that many Americans will say:  “if the President says it, it must be true”.  It’s not.

You can’t blame Democrats for their incredulity.  The President claimed credit for prison reform, family leave, and reduced drug prices; all bills generated from the Democratic House majority, with some still sitting on Mitch McConnell’s desk waiting for Senate action.  At first I thought the “women in white” were giving the President the universal hand signal of disrespect, instead they were giving him a three-fingered salute for House Resolution Number 3, “The Elijah Cumming Reduce Drug Costs Now Act” to reduce drug costs.  It’s there on Mitch’s desk too.

Feeding the Sharks

Then there were the “red meat” parts of the speech.  I expected them: “I will protect your right to have a gun” and “school choice to free children from government-run schools”.  The best one, “a Constitutional Amendment so children can pray in school,” which isn’t even a thing.  Children can pray in school, but adults can’t force their religion on kids in school, the real goal of the Christian right.  

And “I have brought peace to Israel and Palestine,” a proposal brought to you by nepotism, as little Jared read books  “for three years” and saved the world.  Even his buddy in Saudi Arabia isn’t buying into it, much less the Palestinians and the other Arab states.  It was more red meat for the masses.

But Rush Limbaugh, one of the miserable founders of American divisiveness, gets the Presidential Medal of Freedom?  And Melania hangs it on his neck, right there in the House of Representatives?  Who gets the award, I guess, is the President’s prerogative, but to do it in the House chamber is Trump “pissing in the corner”. 

The Uncle Don Show

And then there was State of the Union “Game Show”.  It was perhaps the lighter aspect of the hour:  what will be the next unexpected gift?  Check under your seat, maybe there’s a car key.  First, a thirteen year old gets to look forward to the Space Force, and we find his one hundred year old grandfather, a Tuskegee Airman and career Air Force veteran, gets a retirement promotion to Brigadier General.  Then, a thirteen-year-old girl gets a scholarship to a private school.  A border guard gets promoted to a supervisory position, and a mother of a premature baby gets funding for her pre-natal care program. Finally, the climax, the President brings a soldier back from war to reunite with his family.

It would have a lot more impact if he were bringing all the troops back from war to reunite all the families.  He’s not.

Tearing it Up

Some Congressmen got up and left.  I can’t blame them.  Speaker Pelosi was caught, she couldn’t leave, and she couldn’t stand the constant barrage of falsehoods.  “That’s not true” and “that’s our program” came out of her mouth: she was skewered by lie after lie with no way to respond.  

The speech wasn’t worth the parchment it was printed on.  The Speaker demonstrated what the President did to truth:  she tore it into pieces.